
在伊朗战争爆发之前,华尔街高管们就已私下质疑沙特阿拉伯动用现金的能力。如今,也门胡塞武装的袭击可能进一步危及利雅得吸引外国投资的努力,而此时正是王国最需要外资的时候。
Even before the Iran war began, Wall Street executives were privately questioning Saudi Arabia’s ability to deploy cash. Now, strikes by Yemen’s Houthis could further imperil Riyadh’s quest to lure foreign investment just when the kingdom needs it the most.
不到两周后,利雅得将举办未来投资倡议大会,该活动通常会吸引来自世界各地的高管。知情人士表示,组织方目前正在评估一系列应对措施,以便在局势实质性恶化的情况下仍能举办会议。
In under two weeks, the city is set to host the Future Investment Initiative, which typically draws executives from around the world. Organizers are now sizing up a range of contingency measures on how to hold the conference if the situation materially deteriorates, people familiar with the matter said.
知情人士透露,一些高管可能会像新冠疫情期间那样以线上方式参加小组讨论。该国首都的主要机场——对游客和金融巨头而言都是重要门户——目前因致命袭击而暂时关闭。这导致许多银行家和高管不得不匆忙重新评估他们的出行计划。
Some executives could attend panels virtually, like during the Covid pandemic, according to the people. The capital’s main airport, a gateway to the kingdom for tourists and the titans of finance alike, is shut for now following deadly attacks. That’s left many bankers and executives scrambling to reassess travel plans.
随着一些 mega 项目(超大型项目)正在重新规划,且私人资本在其融资中日益重要,此次活动为利雅得提供了一个机会,以证明全球投资者仍愿支持其发展计划。但美国和英国发布的旅行警告已促使一些人重新考虑是否参会。
With some mega projects being reworked and private capital increasingly important to their financing, the event offers Riyadh a chance to demonstrate that global investors remain willing to back its plans. But travel warnings from the US and UK have prompted some to reconsider attending.
知情人士表示,企业可能会在活动临近时才评估局势。其他也拒绝透露身份、讨论敏感信息的高管称,公司不愿成为首批退出的一方,有些可能会等待官方指引。
Firms are likely to evaluate the situation closer to the event, people familiar with the matter said. Other executives, who also declined to be identified discussing sensitive information, said companies were reluctant to be the first to pull out and some may wait for official guidance.

未来投资倡议大会(FII)将彭博新闻引向其周日发布的一份声明,声明称组织方正在为“欢迎数千名代表来利雅得”做准备,活动定于10月26日开始。
FII directed Bloomberg News to a statement made on Sunday, which said organizers are preparing to “welcome thousands of delegates to Riyadh” for the event starting Oct. 26.
“这触及了王国在吸引外国投资者方面所追求的经济目标的核心,”皇家联合防务与安全研究所的高级研究员H.A.赫利尔说。“整个愿景正被胡塞武装劫持。”利雅得会议在2025年达成了价值超过500亿美元的协议。公共投资基金州长亚西尔·阿尔-鲁迈扬表示,该活动自创办以来已促成超过2500亿美元的累计交易。由于许多公告仅为谅解备忘录,最终价值难以准确核算。
“This hits at the heart of the economic goals the kingdom is trying to achieve in terms of attracting foreign investors,” said H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. “The entire vision is being held hostage by the Houthis.”The Riyadh conference drew agreements worth more than $50 billion in 2025. Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan has said the event has enabled over $250 billion in cumulative deals since inception. The final value is harder to ascertain as many announcements are memoranda of understanding.

此次会议一直是萨勒曼王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼向全球金融界展示沙特阿拉伯形象的关键部分。2017年,这位事实上的统治者与黑石集团公司的史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼和软银集团公司的孙正义并肩而坐,在该活动首届上揭晓了一个名为新未来城(Neom)的下一个世纪城市。
The confab has been a key part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s attempts to make Saudi Arabia’s case to the global financial establishment. In 2017, the defacto ruler sat alongside Blackstone Inc.’s Steve Schwarzman and SoftBank Group Corp.’s Masayoshi Son at the first iteration of the event to unveil a next-century city called Neom.
最近,王国开始削减一些这些计划,并转向人工智能、游戏和高科技制造等领域。这些举措很大程度上需要全球支持,而FII组织者已公布了一份重量级与会者名单,从高盛集团公司的大卫所罗门到贝莱德公司的拉里·芬克,表明他们决心让王国的经济议程保持正轨。
More recently, the kingdom has started to chip away at some of those plans and pivot to areas like artificial intelligence, gaming and high-tech manufacturing. Much of that requires global buy-in and FII organizers have unveiled a slate of big name attendees, from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Solomon to BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink, indicating their determination to keep the kingdom’s economic agenda on track.

“没有人能击垮我们,”能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子本周在一场活动中表示。“我们就像凤凰。我们总是从灰烬中重生,每次都是如此。”尽管一些投资者可能因安全局势的变化而重新考虑计划,但哈立德·阿尔-朱法里——费尔克研究所的哈利吉研究员表示,王国仍将在石油和天然气领域吸引资金。他还补充说,该国也可能获得其他富裕海湾国家的投资和支持。
“There is no way that somebody will break our back,” Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at an event this week. “We are like a phoenix. We come out of the ashes all the time and every time.”While some investors may rethink plans due the evolving security situation, the kingdom will still attract money in oil and gas, said Khalid Al-Jufairi, Al-Khaleej Fellow at the Fiker Institute. The country will also likely get investments and support from other wealthy Gulf nations, he added.
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尽管面临财政压力,利雅得仍继续进行至少一些巨额的国际押注。许多公司仍在关注诸如对动视暴雪公司的交易机会,该交易为包括摩根大通在内的多家银行带来了数百万美元的费用,而去年会议上也有一批公司排队宣布将在该王国扩大业务。
And despite its financial strains, Riyadh has continued to make at least some enormous international bets. Many firms continue to eye opportunities like a deal for Electronic Arts Inc., which landed banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. millions in fees, and last year’s confab featured a clutch of firms lining up to announce a greater presence in the kingdom.
全球主权财富基金在最近的报告中指出:“沙特阿拉伯的公共投资基金已放慢了在王国境外的投资规模,但它仍进行了一些高度确信的押注,并显著集中其海外投资组合。”然而,此类交易日益稀少,促使华尔街将注意力转向其他国家。继四月一次脆弱的停火后,一批高管陆续前往地区枢纽。花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽和布鲁克菲尔德的布鲁斯·弗拉特飞往阿布扎比;弗拉特随后出现在科威特,富兰克林·坦佩尔顿首席执行官珍妮·约翰逊也同样前往。芬克是少数在此期间公开访问该王国的华尔街高层之一。
“Saudi Arabia’s PIF has slowed down the volume of investments outside of the kingdom,” Global SWF said in a recent report. “Yet, it has placed some high-conviction bets and has significantly concentrated its portfolio overseas.”Still, such deals are increasingly few and far, prompting Wall Street to focus on other countries. Following a tenuous ceasefire in April, a procession of executives have made their way to regional hubs. Citigroup Inc. CEO Jane Fraser and Brookfield’s Bruce Flatt have flown to Abu Dhabi; Flatt later showed up in Kuwait, as did Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson. Fink is among the few senior Wall Street names to have publicly visited the kingdom in this time.
该主权财富基金此前也经受过危机。2018年,记者贾迈勒·卡舒吉被谋杀,引发多位高管撤离。华尔街资深人士肯·莫伊利斯是选择继续与沙特政府保持关系的人之一,他的公司已成为该王国的重要顾问。
The FII has also weathered crises before. In 2018, the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi prompted prominent executives to withdraw. Wall Street veteran Ken Moelis was among those who chose to maintain his relationship with Saudi Arabia’s government and his firm has emerged as a key advisor to the kingdom.
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心高级研究学者凯伦·杨表示:“在危机时刻出现本身就具有重要意义。那些理解这一点并付诸行动的人和机构会继续努力,而那些只是试探性涉足的则会感到害怕。”
“In moments of crisis, showing up is very meaningful,” said Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “People and institutions that understand that will make the effort and those that were kind of dipping their toe in the water will be scared.
最近的安全挑战并非前所未有。胡塞武装过去曾针对沙特机场和能源基础设施发动袭击,包括导致该国石油产量暂时减半约一半的打击。与此同时,其他枢纽,包括迪拜、阿布扎比和多哈,在自二月份地区战争爆发后,也曾面临伊朗的袭击。
The recent security challenges aren’t without precedent. The Houthis have targeted Saudi airports and energy infrastructure in the past, including strikes that temporarily halted about half the kingdom’s oil production. Other hubs, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, meanwhile faced Iranian strikes after the regional war began in February.

但当前事件引发了人们对利雅得作为商业枢纽吸引力的新疑问。对于选择居住在其他海湾枢纽、工作日通勤至利雅得的专业人士而言,情况尤为棘手。最近几天,许多人被迫安排汽车以便开车返回。
But the current episode raises fresh questions about Riyadh’s appeal as a business hub. The situation is particularly problematic for professionals who choose to live in other Gulf hubs while commuting during the week to Riyadh. In recent days, many have been forced to secure cars to drive back.
“胡塞武装正在表明,沙特对安全与稳定的愿景若要吸引投资进入王国,就必须付出代价,”卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员亚伦·大卫·米勒说。“沙特正处于脆弱状态。”
“The Houthis are demonstrating there is a price to be paid with Saudi’s vision of the kind of security and stability they need to attract investment to the kingdom,” said Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Saudis are vulnerable.”