在许多人认为美国办公市场因疫情而崩溃短短几年后，该市场正以惊人的速度复苏。这种快速的复苏导致了办公空间的短缺，尤其是高端办公空间的短缺。
Barely a few years after what some saw as a pandemic-driven collapse of the U.S. office market, the sector is roaring back to health at an unexpectedly fast clip. That speedy recovery is resulting in a shortage, especially of premium space.
根据 JLL 的最新报告，办公市场连续五个季度实现了净吸纳量的增长：今年第三季度新增办公面积达到了 600 万平方英尺。同时，企业也在扩大办公规模，新签订的租赁协议中平均办公面积增加了 13%。就在两年前，企业的主要趋势还是缩减办公面积。
The office market posted its fifth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption, with occupiers adding 6 million square feet in the third quarter of this year, according to a new report from JLL. And employers are expanding, with signed leases now averaging a 13% increase in footprint. Just two years ago, the main theme in office was downsizing.
然而，目前办公空间的供应却在持续减少，且减少的速度快于需求的恢复速度。第三季度新增的办公面积仅为 350 万平方英尺，这一数字与第二季度创下的历史最低供应量持平。与此同时，由于空间改造或重新开发，共有 960 万平方英尺的办公空间被淘汰或重新利用。自 2023 年底以来，全国范围内的办公空间总量减少了 4500 万平方英尺。
This all comes at a time when supply is falling — and falling faster than demand is recovering. Just 3.5 million square feet of new office space was delivered in the third quarter, which matches the near-record low supply seen in the second quarter. At the same time, 9.6 million square feet was removed through either conversions or redevelopments. The inventory of office space nationally has lost 45 million square feet since the end of 2023.
目前仅有 2300 万平方英尺的办公空间正在建设中，而随着对高端办公空间的需求激增，这些新建空间变得越来越稀缺。JLL 将这种现象称为“对稀缺资源的追逐”（即投资者和租户纷纷竞相抢购有限的优质办公空间）。因此，租金终于开始上涨。
There is currently just 23 million square feet of new office space under construction, and with demand for premium office surging, this new space is becoming increasingly scarce. JLL deems it a "flight to scarcity." As a result, rents are finally rising.
与 2025 年第三季度相比，高端办公空间的实际租金已经上涨了 20% 以上。由于高端办公空间供应不足，越来越多的租户被迫转向次级办公空间（即普通品质的办公空间），导致这些空间的租金年增长率达到了 10%。
Effective rents for first-generation trophy space are now up more than 20% compared with the third quarter of 2025. The lack of available trophy space is now pushing more occupiers to second-generation space. In turn, rents for that sector are up 10% annually.
“办公楼目前正经历真正的复兴……如果你拥有，如果你在18到24个月前购买了它，那么你在旧金山和纽约的办公楼投资表现得非常出色，” Walker & Dunlop 首席执行官 Willy Walker 在 CNBC 的《收盘钟加时》节目中表示。“正如一贯的情况，不同都会市场有更强的地方驱动因素。科技行业正以旧金山和奥斯汀最高的净吸纳量引领这一趋势。阳光带市场也出现了强劲需求，门户地区的租赁量较去年同期增长了13%。较小的三级市场的租赁量已恢复至2019年水平的大约95%。”
"Office, which is having a real renaissance right now … If you own, if you bought that 18, 24 months ago, you've done incredibly well in office in San Francisco and New York," said Willy Walker, CEO of Walker & Dunlop, a commercial real estate finance and advisory firm, on CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime There are, as always, stronger local drivers to different metropolitan markets. Tech is leading the way with the highest net absorption in San Francisco and Austin. Sun Belt markets have also seen strong demand, with gateway area leasing volume up 13% from a year ago. Smaller, tertiary markets have come back to roughly 95% of their 2019 leasing volume.
“随着供应减少和需求上升，建筑活动应该会回暖，但事实并非如此。”
With supply shrinking and demand rising, construction should be picking up, but it's not.
“现在正是动工兴建的最佳时机，除了没有人会去做这一点，” Walker 表示，并指出今年办公楼建筑供应仅处于正常年供应量的约9%。“现在正是启动项目、以便在未来两三年交付的好时机。问题在于股权资本。目前你找不到流向该领域的股权资本，因此我们将面临供应受限的市场，这会带来什么后果？它将推动租金上涨。” CNBC 的 Diana Olick 主持的《Property Play》栏目每周向房地产投资者送达新兴及演变中的机遇。点击此处立即获取访问权限。
"Now is the perfect time to be putting a shovel in the ground, except no one's going to do it," said Walker, noting that this year office construction is at about 9% of its normal annual supply. "It's a perfect time to start projects to be delivered in the next two or three years. The problem with it is back to equity capital. You're not finding the equity capital going towards it right now, and as a result of it, we will be in a supply-constrained market, which, what will that do? It'll push rents up." CNBC's Property Play with Diana Olick covers new and evolving opportunities for the real estate investor, delivered weekly to your inbox. here to get access today