一对大型华尔街银行本周建议投资者撤离科技板块，因芯片股走低。RBC资本市场周三呼应了德意志银行上周的分析，建议客户在中期内避开科技股。RBC将该板块从增持下调至市场持有，并建议转向医疗保健。最新的理由是，芯片板块的盈利动能正在放缓，这一点体现在每股收益上调预期的修正上。“尽管更广泛的科技板块每股收益上调预期的修正率仍然强劲，但我们已经开始看到，在衡量R3000半导体及半导体设备行业盈利情绪的这一指标上出现一些放缓，”RBC美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina在周三的报告中写道，她指的是罗素3000指数。
A pair of large Wall Street banks are telling investors to bail on the tech sector as chip stocks sag this week. RBC Capital Markets on Wednesday echoed a Deutsche Bank analysis from last week, telling clients to steer clear of tech in the medium term. RBC downgraded the sector from overweight to market weight and recommended health care in its place. The latest rationale is that earnings momentum in the chip sector, as reflected in upward EPS estimate revisions, is decelerating. "While the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the broader Tech sector remains strong, we have started to see some deceleration on this gauge of earnings sentiment for the R3000 Semi & Semi Equipment industry," Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy for RBC, wrote in a Wednesday note, referring to the Russell 3000 index.
她的团队“正在保持警惕，以防上调预期的修正率出现放缓”，她认为这“将是表现的负面信号，并预示着另一轮下跌。”Calvasina表示。iShares半导体ETF（SOXX）周三下跌近3%，本周累计下跌超过5%，较6月下旬创下的52周高点下跌超过19%。VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）周三下跌超过2%，10月累计下跌5.5%。尽管近期出现下跌，内存芯片制造商美光在过去六个月中已翻倍以上，涨幅达105%。
Her team is "staying vigilant for a deceleration in the rate of upward revisions," believing it "would be a negative signal for performance and indicative of another leg down," Calvasina said. The iShares Semiconductor ETF ( SOXX ) is down almost 3% Wednesday, more than 5% this week and more than 19% below its 52-week high reached in late June. The VanEck semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) is down more than 2% Wednesday and off 5.5% in October. Even with the latest declines, memory chipmaker Micron has more than doubled in the past six months, climbing 105%.
闪迪上涨57%。SNDK 6M山峰闪迪6个月。德意志银行周五曾警告过这种下跌趋势，称自7月开始的科技板块轮动即将接近尾声。“科技轮动已经走得很远，短期内风险回报比不再看好，”德意志银行的Parag Thatte周五在给客户的报告中写道。Thatte补充说，转向其他板块可能以健康的方式提升整体市场表现，但也可能引发更广泛的抛售。
Sandisk is up 57%. SNDK 6M mountain Sandisk 6 months. Deutsche Bank warned about such a down leg on Friday, saying that the rotation into tech that started in July was close to running its course. "The Tech rotation has run far and the risk-reward no longer looks favorable in the near term," Parag Thatte at Deutsche Bank wrote to clients on Friday. The rotation into other sectors could broaden market performance in a healthy way but might also entail a wider sell-off, Thatte added.
与此同时，尽管具体时间点尚不明朗，但那些看空人工智能所带动的长期资本支出繁荣即将终结的言论正愈演愈烈。著名投资人保罗·图德·琼斯周二对CNBC表示：“2027年对股市而言将会极其艰难”，他还将当前形势与21世纪初互联网泡沫破裂前夕的状况相类比。据彭博社周五报道，杰富瑞集团全球股票策略主管克里斯·伍德指出，人们担忧人工智能终将走向商品化，进而导致价格下跌、企业营收减少，这种担忧也引发了人们对中美两国技术水平趋于均等的忧虑。
Meanwhile, bearish rhetoric about the eventual end of the longer-term boom in capital spending tied to artificial intelligence is growing fiercer, though the timing remains vague. Famed investor Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC on Tuesday that "2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market," and compared current conditions to those that held just prior to the popping of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, said that concerns about the inevitable commodification of AI, which will lower prices and company revenues, are creating fears about technological parity between China and the U.S., according to a Friday Bloomberg report .
今年9月，伍德就曾警告称人工智能基础设施建设可能引发资本浪费。9月17日，伍德在接受印度媒体《Money Control》采访时说道：“风险在于，市场迟早会开始质疑这些资本支出能否带来应有的回报。我的基本判断是，大量资金将被浪费在人工智能相关的资本开支上，大量资本就此付诸东流；但关键问题在于，市场何时才会产生这种担忧呢？”
In September, Wood warned about capital destruction resulting from the AI buildout. "The risk is that at some point the market really starts to question this spending in terms of whether they will make a proper return from the investment," Wood told Indian media outlet Money Control on September 17. "My base case is that they will end up wasting a lot of money on this AI capex, a lot of capital will be destroyed; but the key question is, when does the market start to think that?"