伊朗对海湾地区冶炼厂的导弹袭击以及霍尔木兹海峡的封锁，使得近300万吨铝产能瘫痪。然而，八个月后，市场似乎并未对此感到担忧。
Iranian missile attacks on Gulf smelters and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz have knocked out almost 3 million metric tons of aluminium production capacity. Yet, eight months on, the market is seemingly unconcerned.
事实上，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铝的价格目前徘徊在每吨3000美元左右，这与今年2月初美国和以色列对伊朗发动“史诗之怒”行动之前的水平相当。
Indeed, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month aluminium is now trading just above $3,000 per ton, which is where it was in early February before the US and Israel unleashed Operation Epic Fury against Iran.
交易员们押注，印尼产量的提升以及中国产品出口的增加，将能够撑过这段时期，直至海湾冶炼厂修复完毕，霍尔木兹海峡的航运完全恢复。
Traders are betting that a combination of rising output in Indonesia and higher product exports from China can tide things over until the Gulf smelters are repaired and shipping fully resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.
然而，这种表面的平静掩盖了实物供应链中仍然存在的压力——该供应链正因前所未有的中断而承受冲击。
The surface calm, however, masks lingering stress in a physical supply chain that is still reeling from the unprecedented disruption.
根据国际铝业协会的数据，海湾地区初级铝产量在2月至5月期间年化下降了280万吨。
Gulf production of primary aluminium slumped by an annualized 2.8 million tons between February and May, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
这一下降反映了酋长国全球铝业（Emirates Global Aluminium）的Al-Taweelah冶炼厂被迫停产，以及巴林铝业（ALBH.BH）设施受损，此外还有其他海湾运营商的物流问题。
The collapse reflected the forced shutdown of Emirates Global Aluminium's Al-Taweelah smelter and damage to Aluminium Bahrain's (ALBH.BH) facility, as well as logistics problems at other Gulf operators.
随着两家工厂正在进行维修并逐步恢复产能，海湾地区的产量此后一直在缓慢回升，但8月份的年化产量为350万吨，仍比敌对行动之前的水平低260万吨。中国和印尼已经介入以填补这一缺口。
Regional production has since been creeping higher as both plants undergo repairs and ramp production back up, but the August run-rate of 3.5 million tons annualised was still 2.6 million tons below pre-hostility levels. China and Indonesia have stepped in to plug the gap.
中国的初级金属出口受到高达30%出口关税的限制，但合金的出口量在1月至8月期间同比翻倍，达到34.9万吨。
China's exports of primary metal are constrained by a hefty 30% export duty, but outbound volumes of alloy doubled year-on-year to 349,000 tons in the January to August period.
同期，铝板、板材和带材等半成品的出口量激增了77.4万吨，达到446万吨。
Exports of semi-finished products such as aluminium plate, sheet and strip surged by 774,000 tons to 4.46 million tons over the same period.
印尼新建的中资所有权冶炼厂也在加速提升产能。该国7月份出口初级金属11.4万吨，创下月度新高。
Indonesia's new Chinese-owned smelters are also ramping up at speed. The country exported 114,000 tons of primary metal in July, a fresh monthly record.
去年印度尼西亚铝出口的一半左右流向中国，但自伊朗战争以来，货物已分散至亚洲、欧洲甚至美国。亚洲供应改善导致实物溢价从6月的高点回落。
Around half of last year's Indonesian aluminium exports went to China but shipments since the Iran war have been dispersed across Asia, Europe and even the US. Improved availability in Asia has caused physical premiums to ease from their June highs.
日本买家谈判获得的第四季度交付溢价为每吨255美元，高于LME现货价，这较上一季度下降了35%。
Japanese buyers have negotiated a fourth-quarter delivery premium of $255 per ton over the LME cash price, which marks a 35% decline from the previous quarter.
但这仍高于伊朗战争初期每吨200美元的溢价，表明即使在相对供应充足的市场部分，紧张局势仍在持续。欧洲买家为其实物金属支付的价格明显更高。
However, that's still higher than the $200-per-ton premium that was trading at the start of the Iran war, attesting to continued tension even in this relatively well-supplied part of the market. European buyers are paying significantly more for their physical metal.
CME欧洲含税溢价目前交易价为每吨559美元，高于LME现货价，是2月底水平的两倍。
The CME European duty-paid premium is trading at $559 per ton over LME cash, double the level at the end of February.
当然，美国买家为其铝支付的价格最高，美国中西部溢价交易价为每吨2312美元，高于LME现货价，这在很大程度上是由于特朗普总统50%的进口关税所致。
US buyers, of course, are paying more than anyone else for their aluminium with the US Midwest premium trading at an elevated $2,312 per ton over LME cash, though this is as much about President Donald Trump's 50% import tariffs as anything else.
高企的溢价正在将可用金属吸入实物供应链，导致LME库存降至多年低点。
Elevated premiums are sucking available metal into the physical supply chain, leaving LME stocks at multi-year lows.
目前库存为238,625吨，是本世纪以来的最低水平。剩余库存大部分为俄罗斯金属，这降低了其对大多数西方买家的吸引力。
ed inventory of 238,625 tons is the lowest level this century. Most of what remains is Russian metal, which reduces its appeal to most Western buyers.
LME非保税仓库存自2月起持续下降，目前仅为73,509吨，这是LME自2020年引入此类库存报告以来的最低水平。
LME off-warrant inventory has also been steadily shrinking since February and now totals just 73,509 tons, which is the lowest reading since the LME introduced this category of stocks reporting in 2020.
时间价差自6月起已明显缓解，当时现货价较三个月合约金属的溢价曾一度超过每吨100美元。
Time-spreads have eased considerably since June, when the cash premium over three-month metal jumped to over $100 per ton.
但曲线前端仍存在一定紧张。在经历一段轻微的正向价差后，现货价再次较三个月合约金属出现小幅溢价。
But there is lingering tightness in the front part of the curve. After a period of mild contango, cash has just returned to a small premium over three-month metal again.
只要实物溢价保持如此高位，时间价差紧张状况就可能继续成为伦敦市场的一个特征。
Time-spread tension is likely to remain a feature of the London market as long as physical premiums remain so high.
铝市场对如此大规模的产量突然损失表现出高度韧性，但平静表面之下的压力线仍然存在。
The aluminium market has proved highly resilient to the sudden loss of so much production, but the stress lines are still there beneath the calm surface.
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