The United States is preparing to receive its first shipment of Belarusian potash in four years, as President Donald Trump seeks cheaper fertiliser for American farmers amid rising costs linked to the Iran war and a trade dispute with Canada.

A 30,000-tonne shipment of potash is expected to arrive at the Port of New Orleans on Wednesday, according to data from Kpler. The shipment follows Washington’s decision to lift sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers in March, opening an avenue for trade to resume.

Although this shipment from Belarus accounts for only a fraction of the 5.6 million tonnes of potash the US imported last year, it signals a tentative opening of relations between Washington and Minsk.

Trump has said the US is working on a larger agreement to buy Belarusian fertiliser at prices substantially below what it pays Canada, its dominant supplier. But analysts have questioned whether Belarus can compete with Canadian producers on price and expand exports enough to significantly change the US market. What is potash and why does the US need it?

Potash is a potassium-rich mineral that is a primary fertiliser element. Potassium, an essential plant nutrient, has no substitutes, and potash is widely used in agriculture, including in the cultivation of corn and soybeans.

The US depends heavily on imports to meet its potash needs. Canada accounts for almost 80 percent of US potash imports, according to the US Geological Survey’s 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Russia accounts for 12 percent, the second-largest share of US potash imports.

That reliance has made fertiliser supply an economic and political concern, particularly as farmers face rising production costs. In recent months, US farmers have reported higher fuel and fertiliser costs, putting pressure on already tight profit margins.

Trump has reportedly been concerned that financial strain may cost Republicans some of the US farmer vote in this year’s midterms. In 2024, Trump won 78 percent of the vote in farming-dependent counties. At an agriculture roundtable in Wisconsin in June, Trump promised fertiliser prices would “go way down” as the US emerged from the Iran conflict.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have added to pressure on global fertiliser markets, particularly for nitrogen-based products. Potash, however, is less directly exposed to the crisis, with the US relying heavily on supplies from Canada.

Trump has argued that buying Belarusian potash could reduce those costs. An additional supplier could also give US buyers more options in a market dominated by Canadian imports.

For farmers, the immediate benefits remain uncertain. Fertiliser is one of several major expenses facing agricultural businesses, alongside diesel fuel and machinery. Even a reduction in potash prices would not necessarily offset increases elsewhere.

The Nutrien Cory potash mine, which produces potash products used in agriculture, near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, on April 20, 2025 [Todd Korol/Reuters] Can Belarus offer cheaper fertiliser?

In September, Trump boasted on social media about striking a potential potash deal with Belarus.

“The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus,” Trump said in the post. “The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”Trump promoted Belarusian potash as a less expensive alternative to Canadian supplies, but the economics of delivering it to American buyers complicates that plan.

Belarus is landlocked, and EU restrictions are affecting its export routes, forcing potash shipments to take a more circuitous path through Russia. The incoming cargo was loaded at the Russian port of Bronka near St Petersburg, according to reporting by the Financial Times.

Those logistical challenges could raise transportation costs and make Belarusian supplies less competitive, even if the product itself is cheaper.

The scale of the exports also matters. A single shipment shows that trade between the US and Belarus has resumed, but it does not mean Belarus can replace a substantial share of Canadian potash or drive down prices across the US market.

However, access to an alternative supplier could give Washington greater leverage in negotiations with Canadian producers, potentially helping US buyers secure more competitive potash prices. Could Belarus replace Canada as the main potash supplier in the US?

Relations between the US and Canada have been strained since Trump’s second term began, when he unleashed a volley of tariffs on most trading partners, including Canada. His administration initially imposed a 25 percent tariff on many Canadian imports in March 2025, including potash, but reduced that to 10 percent following pushback from agricultural groups and lawmakers. Potash that meets the requirements of the USMCA trade agreement – the trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada – is exempted. Most Canadian potash imports qualify under the USMCA and remain duty-free.

Trump has maintained that Washington would continue buying from Canada, even as Belarus offered to sell potash at a lower price.

But the viability of Belarus as a major supplier remains unlikely. In September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the country could not supply large volumes of potash fertiliser to the US.

“Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes – everything is contracted,” Lukashenko said.

Whether this October shipment becomes part of a much larger deal will depend on the ability to sustain exports and the durability of the diplomatic opening between Washington and Minsk. Why did the US impose sanctions on Belarus, and why are they being lifted?

The planned shipment marks a significant step in the restoration of trade between Washington and Minsk, which have spent years being at odds over Belarus’s human rights record and its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The US, under former Democratic President Joe Biden, imposed increased sanctions on Belarus in 2021 after Lukashenko’s authoritarian government cracked down mass protests against its disputed 2020 presidential election. Belarus has also faced Western sanctions for allowing Russian forces to use its territory in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Belarusian opposition supporters gather for a protest rally in front of the government building at Independence Square in Minsk, Belarus, on August 18, 2020 [Dmitri Lovetsky/AP] But since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, his administration has pursued direct negotiations with Lukashenko. Those talks have led to the release of political prisoners in exchange for lifting US sanctions, creating a pathway towards renewed economic ties.

In March, Belarus released 250 political prisoners under a US-brokered agreement. Washington subsequently lifted sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers and eased restrictions on several financial institutions. In September, US special envoy John Coale announced a further agreement under which Belarus would release 25 prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief. The rapprochement has opened the door to proposals for deeper commercial cooperation.

On September 29, Lukashenko said he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian state-controlled energy company Gazprom would participate in a project to build a nitrogen fertiliser plant in Belarus. He proposed inviting the US to join the project using American technology, according to the Reuters news agency.

Before this agreement, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said that a deal with Lukashenko comes with risks.

“Our position is that it is not time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes to repression, goes to support of the Russian war machine,” Tsikhanouskaya told AFP in September.

The proposal has not established that Washington will participate in the project. But alongside Trump’s stated interest in buying Belarusian potash, it illustrates how Minsk is seeking to turn improved political relations into broader commercial opportunities.