BEIJING: A maritime confrontation near a remote Philippine island chain in early October has drawn fresh attention to an emerging pressure point between Beijing and Manila, this time on Taiwan's doorstep.

Batanes, the Philippines' northernmost province, is gaining strategic prominence amid China’s growing concerns over Manila's deepening defence ties with the United States and Japan, and its potential role in a conflict over Taiwan, analysts say.

China's activities may "serve as a warning against Philippine involvement in a Taiwan contingency", said Ian Seow, a senior analyst in the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), a Singapore think-tank.

Long overshadowed by disputes in the South China Sea, tensions around Batanes are now playing out on several fronts, from increased Chinese maritime activity to recent arguments by some Chinese scholars questioning Philippine sovereignty over the islands.

WHY BATANES MATTERS Located less than 200km south of Taiwan, Batanes lies in the Luzon Strait, which connects the South China Sea to the western Pacific. It comprises 10 islands, only three of which are inhabited. Batanes had just 18,937 residents, according to the country's 2024 census, making it the Philippines’ least populated province.

The Bashi Channel, a deep-water passage within the strait that separates Batanes from Taiwan, provides a route for Chinese naval vessels to move into the open Pacific, Rachel Vandenbrink, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), told CNA. In a conflict over Taiwan, however, access through the channel could become particularly important for Chinese military operations, including efforts to blockade the island, she added.

"The Bashi Channel could provide Chinese naval forces access to eastern Taiwan and sea lanes near Kaohsiung in a conflict or blockade." Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification.

RSIS’ Seow described continued access to the channel as “critical” to Beijing in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

“It could enable the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to operate in the Pacific and complicate the US' military intervention," he said.

Smoke rises from a weapon on a ship after it was fired during drills east of Taiwan, in this screenshot from a video released by the Eastern Theatre Command of China's People's Liberation Army on Dec 29, 2025. The US maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan and is its main arms supplier.

But Batanes’ geography could also benefit forces seeking to counter Chinese naval operations.

"Batanes gives its partners another option from the south," said Felix Brender, a Hou Family Postdoctoral Fellow in Taiwan Studies at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, referring primarily to the US and Japan as potential partners supporting Taiwan.

"Forces there could track Chinese naval movements and make it harder for Beijing to cut Taiwan off,” he told CNA.

But whether Manila would permit US forces to use the islands in an actual conflict over Taiwan remains uncertain.

"The Americans have deployed anti-ship missiles there during exercises on frequent occasions; permission to use them in a Taiwan war is another matter," Brender said.

Japan's Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (second from right) walks with soldiers during a maritime strike exercise involving US, Australian, Philippine and Japanese troops as part of Balikatan in Paoay, Ilocos Norte, Philippines, on May 6, 2026. WHY THE ATTENTION NOW?

Batanes' growing strategic importance comes amid a broader shift in Philippine defence policy under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Since taking office in June 2022, he has strengthened security ties with Washington and increasingly focused attention on the country's northern approaches.

In 2023, Manila granted US forces access to four additional military sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), including three in northern Luzon, bringing the total number of agreed locations to nine.

The arrangement allows US forces to rotate through designated Philippine military facilities and pre-position equipment, although the sites remain under Philippine control.

Japan has also stepped up military cooperation with Manila. During the annual US-Philippines Balikatan exercises in April and May, Japanese forces conducted live-fire anti-ship missile training in the Philippines for the first time, in Ilocos Norte, on the northwestern tip of Luzon.

A Japanese Type 88 surface-to-ship missile system is launched during a maritime strike drill as part of the Balikatan exercises in Paoay, Ilocos Norte, Philippines, on May 6, 2026.

"Closer cooperation complicates Beijing's calculations. It makes it harder to assume that Taiwan could be isolated without other countries becoming involved," Brender said.

Seow said Japan's growing military involvement was a complicating factor for China, particularly after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in November 2025 that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan's security.

"These developments could add to Beijing's concerns about the possibility of Japan supporting US military operations in a Taiwan contingency," he said. Tensions have also surfaced over maritime boundaries.

During Marcos' visit to Japan on May 28, Manila and Tokyo agreed to begin formal negotiations on delimiting their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing objected, saying the talks concerned waters east of Taiwan where China also claims maritime rights. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson described the planned discussions as "completely illegal, null and void". A month later, Batanes itself became the subject of an academic debate in China.

At a Jun 30 event hosted by Jinan University, Chinese scholars questioned Philippine sovereignty over the archipelago and discussed historical and legal arguments that they said supported a potential Chinese claim.

Participants pose for a group photo at a symposium on the sovereignty of the Philippines' Batanes Islands amid Japan-Philippines maritime boundary discussions, held at Jinan University in Guangzhou, China, on Jun 30, 2026.

The arguments received coverage in Chinese state media, including the Global Times, which published a detailed report on Jul 10 outlining the scholars' case for Chinese sovereignty over Batanes. Zhang Qiyue, a research fellow at the think-tank Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), attended the symposium.

She told CNA that participating scholars had recommended that China take steps to assert sovereignty over Batanes, but stressed that this was an academic proposal, not Beijing’s official position.

MARITIME ENCOUNTERS Around Batanes, tensions between Beijing and Manila are already playing out at sea.

On Oct 1, the Philippine Coast Guard challenged a Chinese research vessel near Batanes, accusing it of conducting unauthorised marine scientific research.

Manila said a Chinese coast guard ship sought to shield the vessel. Beijing said the research vessel was "conducting normal operations in waters under China's jurisdiction" and accused the Philippines of harassment. The encounter followed earlier reports of Chinese research vessels operating near the archipelago.

In May, the Philippine government’s National Maritime Council reported two Chinese research vessels operating near Itbayat, one of Batanes’ three inhabited islands.

China's embassy in Manila defended the vessels' activities, saying they complied with international law. It said one of the ships was transiting the Bashi Channel to conduct scientific research east of the Philippines.

In April 2025, the Philippine Coast Guard monitored a Chinese research vessel off Itbayat, saying its unusual movements suggested it was conducting marine scientific research without permission.

Separately, on Jun 1 this year, China's coast guard announced patrols east of Taiwan in response to Japan-Philippines maritime boundary negotiations, although it did not disclose their precise location.

"In terms of grey-zone tactics, China is likely to continue using its coast guard to assert its presence around the Batanes and stretch the resources of other countries through sustained maritime operations, short of an armed conflict," RSIS’ Seow said, noting that Chinese maritime activity around Batanes had increased since Marcos took office.

Such pressure could also be aimed at influencing Manila's decisions in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, Brender said.

"My near-term expectation is that Beijing will try to deter Manila from allowing US forces to use Batanes in a conflict, through diplomatic threats and shows of force at sea," he said.

HISTORY AND SOVEREIGNTY Despite increased Chinese maritime activity and the recent academic debate, analysts highlighted that Beijing has not formally challenged Philippine sovereignty over Batanes, and there is no suggestion that it intends to do so.

"Claiming Taiwan does not give China a claim to Batanes. Neither proximity nor cultural ties establish ownership,” said Brender.

Still, the arguments made by the Chinese scholars at the June symposium have raised questions about whether that could change.

Their arguments included interpretations of historical treaties between Spain and the US, claims of Qing dynasty-era administration of Batanes through Taiwan, and cultural and linguistic links between indigenous communities in Batanes and Taiwan's Orchid Island.

Tao (Yami) indigenous rowers paddle a traditional wooden canoe, the Ovayan (Golden Friendship), along the coast of Orchid Island in southeastern Taiwan during a voyage to the Philippines' Batanes Islands on Jun 15, 2026. The Philippines has rejected those arguments.

Its National Historical Commission said in July that Batanes had been integrated into the Spanish colonial administration of the Philippines in the 18th century and that Philippine sovereignty over the islands was supported by subsequent constitutional and legal developments.

Zhang of SIIS stressed that academic discussions and official government positions "should be clearly distinguished". At the same time, she acknowledged that academic research could help shape future policy.

"Scholarly discussions may accumulate a legal foundation and prepare public opinion for the possible formation of a future official position,” said Zhang.

Brender also saw potential political implications in the academic debate. He noted that Chinese universities and think-tanks operate within the country's political system, but said this did not necessarily mean the scholars were acting at the government’s direction.

"Their arguments can help make a new territorial demand sound legitimate before officials commit themselves to it," he said.

"The danger is that repetition makes Philippine territory sound disputed.”