一位在最近一次美联储加息前就作出预测的经济学家现在表示，12月可能会出现更大幅度的、半个百分点的加息。
A forecaster who was early to call the most recent Federal Reserve rate hike now says a bigger, half-percentage-point rate increase could be on the table in December.
声望经济学公司（Prestige Economics）总裁Jason Schenker表示，他不认为央行在此次本月会议上可能会上调其基准利率。相反，他认为美联储可能会给9月的加息“留点喘息空间”，然后在12月可能选择更大幅度的加息。
Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics, said he doesn’t think the central bank is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate at its meeting this month. Instead, he thinks the Fed may give its September move “a little room to breathe” before potentially going for a bigger hike in December.
“当我们进入12月时，如果在9月加息之后，通胀尚未以更有意义的方式被遏制，他们可能会选择加息50个基点而不是25个基点，以更大力度地‘咬一口苹果’，”Schenker说。
“When we get to December, if the kibosh hasn’t yet been put on inflation in a more meaningful way after September’s hike, they may choose to go 50 instead of 25 to take a bigger bite at the apple,” Schenker said.
美联储主席Kevin Warsh上个月将美联储转入加息周期——这是自2023年以来的首次——旨在遏制上升的通胀。
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh shifted the Fed into hiking mode last month — for the first time since 2023 — in an attempt to tame rising inflation.
虽然许多经济学家在9月会议前几周就预期了这一举措，但Schenker是彭博社在6月调查的首位预测该加息的经济学家。Schenker在声望经济学公司撰写预测，该公司一直是彭博社排名中外汇预测排名靠前的机构之一。
While many economists were expecting the move in the weeks before the September meeting, Schenker was the first economist surveyed by Bloomberg to predict the rate increase back in June. Prestige, where Schenker pens the forecasts, has regularly been one of the top-ranked foreign currency forecasters in Bloomberg rankings.
最近交易员和经济学家之间的讨论集中在美联储是否会在本月再次上调利率25个基点，或者将这一上调留到12月会议进行。互换市场已经完全将12月份加息25个基点的可能性定价在内。
The more recent conversation among traders and economists has centered on whether the Fed will raise rates another quarter point this month, or save that increase for its December meeting. The swaps market is fully pricing in a 25-basis-point hike in December.
在周三消费者通胀数据高于经济学家预期——主要受燃料成本激增推动——之前，10月加息的概率在期货市场中一度升至50%以上，随后有所回落。
The odds of an October rate increase surged above 50% in futures markets before pulling back on Wednesday, after consumer inflation came in higher than economist forecasts, led by a surge in fuel costs.
然而，Schenker认为，美联储在10月会议上可能没有足够的信息来做出另一次政策决定，因为周三发布的大部分数据是在美联储9月加息之前收集的。
Schenker, though, believes that the Fed will not have enough information to make another move at the October meeting because much of the data released on Wednesday was collected before the Fed upped rates in September.
“我认为他们可能没有足够的数据点来形成所需的确定性，”Schenker说。
“There’s not enough data points, I don’t think, for them to have the conviction they may need,” Schenker said.
与此同时，在10月与12月的会议之间，美联储官员还将收到另外两份就业报告以及另一份CPI数据，这些数据将有助于他们制定未来的决策。
Meanwhile, between the October and December meetings, Fed officials will receive two more jobs reports and another CPI print that can inform their future decisions.
“虽然只等待6周，但他们将获得更多数据，”申克表示。“如果他们发现25个基点的加息毫无效果，那么我认为他们可能会采取50个基点的加息措施。”申克预计，这一更大幅度的加息举措很可能导致明年年初暂停进一步加息；而若12月仅加息25个基点，则明年第一季度再次加息的“可能性”将会增加。
“It’s only a 6-week wait, but they’re going to get a lot more data,” Schenker said. “If they see 25 basis points did nothing, then I think that they might roll out the 50.”That bigger move would likely lead to a pause on more hikes early next year, Schenker anticipates, while a smaller, quarter-point increase in December would make another rate increase “likely” in the first quarter of next year.