那些多年未曾面临严峻连任竞争的共和党人，如今突然像在摇摆选区竞选一样开展竞选活动。
Republicans who haven't faced serious reelection fights in years are suddenly campaigning like they're running in swing districts.
为何重要：民主党人正在关注那些对共和党极为有利的众议院选区——这些选区在2026年中期选举周期开始时甚至还未进入该党的视线。
Why it matters: Democrats are eyeing House districts so Republican that they weren't even on the party's radar at the start of the 2026 midterm election cycle.
- 这包括像众议员约翰·麦圭尔（R-弗吉尼亚州）和劳伦·博伯特（R-科罗拉多州）这样的现任议员，他们在进入特朗普第二个任期时，几乎没有人认为他们脆弱。
• That includes incumbents like Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom were seen as remotely vulnerable coming into the second Trump term.
- 这些席位多年甚至数十年来都未曾选出民主党人，只有在全国层面以双位数优势获胜时，才可能真正成为竞争焦点。即便如此，其中一些选区仍属于艰难争夺。
• Most of these seats haven't elected a Democrat in years or even decades and are only truly in play if the party is winning nationally by double digits. Even then, some are a stretch.
- 但特朗普支持地区的候选人表示，对物价上涨、腐败、伊朗战争以及普遍政治现任官僚制的不满，已经引发了一场海啸式变化，这可能导致11月3日出现一些令人震惊的结果。
• But candidates in Trump country say frustration with rising prices, corruption, the war in Iran and political incumbency in general have led to a sea change that could precipitate some shock results on Nov. 3.
当前形势：密歇根州众议员杰克·伯格曼（R-密歇根州）正在针对民主党对手卡莉·巴尔投放尖锐攻击广告，将其称为“腐败的卡莉”，并将其与亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯、拉希达·塔莱布和阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛德联系在一起。
State of play: Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) is running scathing attack ads against Democratic opponent Callie Barr, labeling her "Crooked Callie" and tying her to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Abdul El-Sayed.
- 这与2024年形成鲜明对比——当年伯格曼以21个百分点击败巴尔。根据AdImpact的数据，他当时的广告最多只是简单提及巴尔。
• That's a stark change from 2024, when Bergman defeated Barr by 21 percentage points. His ads that cycle made at most a passing reference to Barr, according to AdImpact.
- 弗吉尼亚州众议员约翰·麦圭尔（R-弗吉尼亚州）在2024年以15个百分点获胜，那是一场支出和广告极少的平静大选。他同样正面临前民主党众议员汤姆·佩里埃洛的挑战，并投放攻击广告。
• Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.) won by 15 points in 2024, a sleepy general election with minimal spending or ads. He too is running attack ads amid a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello.
我们所听到的：民主党人表示，他们对选区内反建制情绪的强烈程度感到惊讶。
What we're hearing: Democrats say they are astounded by the level of anti-establishment frustration in their districts.
“我们正陷入一场真正的竞争。这太不可思议了，”巴尔在接受采访时对Axios表示，选民们经常来到她的竞选办公室“只是为了宣泄对现任官员的不满”。
"We're in a real race. It's unreal," Barr said in an interview, telling Axios voters regularly come to her campaign offices "just to vent their frustration" with the incumbent.
- “我在‘24年参选，我能实时看到这种转变，”她说。“我的意思是，看看杰克·伯格曼为我制作的那则广告。广告背后有一段音轨，在低声耳语：‘谎言’。”
• "I ran in '24, and I can see, in real time, the shift," she said. "I mean, look at the commercial Jack Bergman ran about me. There's a track behind it that's whispering, 'lies.'"
- 理查德·奥杰达（Richard Ojeda）正在与全国共和党国会委员会主席理查德·赫德森（Richard Hudson，R-N.C.）竞争，他告诉Axios，他的选区“已成熟可摘”，因为选民“绝对厌倦了，他们已经受够了，他们知道自己值得更好的。”
• Richard Ojeda, who is running against National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), told Axios his district is "ripe for the picking" because voters are "absolutely tired, they're done with this, they know they deserve better."
- “这里的人们对政治中涉及的所有人同样感到厌恶……人们对变革有着巨大的渴望，”挑战众议员德里克·施密特（Derek Schmidt，R-Kan.）的民主党人唐·库弗（Don Coover）说。
• "People here are equally disgusted with everybody involved in politics ... There's an enormous appetite for change," said Don Coover, the Democrat challenging Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Kan.).
聚焦：佩里埃洛（Perriello）被要求将2026年选举周期与他首次当选国会议员时的2008年民主党浪潮进行比较时，他说，共和党总统候选人约翰·麦凯恩（John McCain）“是一位非常严肃、可信的共和党人。”• 当时的民主党总统候选人巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）“正在推动一股使弗吉尼亚州变蓝的浪潮，但共和党方面并没有出现崩盘的情况，”他告诉Axios。
Zoom in: Perriello, asked to compare the 2026 election cycle with the 2008 Democratic wave in which he was elected to his first stint in Congress, said Republican presidential nominee John McCain "was a very serious, credible Republican." • Then-Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama "was driving a wave that turned Virginia blue, but it wasn't like the bottom was dropping out on the Republican side," he told Axios.
- “此次选举正在共和党方面出现崩盘，”他说。“众议院共和党人的底线正以惊人的速度崩塌，他们正在匆忙巩固那些被MAGA小丑扮演的操作员嘲笑我们一年前就该瞄准的深红色选区，”民主党国会竞选委员会发言人维特·谢尔顿（Viet Shelton）说。
• "This election has the bottom dropping out on the Republican side," he said. "The bottom is falling out so fast from House Republicans, they are scrambling to shore up deep red districts that the MAGA clowns cosplaying as operatives mocked us for targeting over a year ago," said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
- 谢尔顿补充道：“现在谁在笑？”
• Shelton added, "Who's laughing now?"
- 众议院多数党政治行动委员会（House Majority PAC）——众议院民主党的主要超级政治行动委员会——发言人CJ·沃恩克（CJ Warnke）告诉Axios：“进入这个周期时，我们的策略是招募杰出的候选人，以便在特朗普腹地深入开展竞争——而这正在见效。”
• CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC — House Democrats' main super PAC — told Axios: "Coming into the cycle, our strategy was to recruit stellar candidates in order to contest races deep into Trump territory — and it's paying off."
- 沃恩克指出，民主党人在德克萨斯州新划定的第15选区的努力，该选区特朗普在2024年以18个百分点获胜；以及北卡罗来纳州第11选区，他指出该选区自2006年以来尚未被民主党赢得。
• Warnke pointed to Democratic efforts in Texas' newly redrawn 15th District, which Trump carried by 18 points in 2024, and North Carolina's 11th District, which he noted hasn't been won by a Democrat since 2006.
然而：尽管民主党国会竞选委员会已将许多这些选区加入其抱负性的“正在竞争的选区”（Districts in Play）名单，但它和众议院多数党政治行动委员会均未承诺投入任何资金。
Yes, but: Despite the DCCC adding many of these races to its aspirational "Districts in Play" list, neither it nor House Majority PAC has committed any money.
- 在某些情况下，较小的外部支出者正在填补这一空白：进步组织“科学胜利基金”发言人告诉Axios，该组织计划在15个共和党支持率较高的选区投放广告和开展电话银行活动，花费20万美元。
• In some cases, smaller outside spenders are filling the gap: Progressive group Science Victory Fund plans to spend $200,000 on ads and phone banking in 15 strongly Republican districts, a spokesperson told Axios.
- 这包括针对众议员弗伦奇·希尔（共和党-阿肯色州）、阿贝·哈马德赫（共和党-亚利桑那州）和尼克·拉洛塔（共和党-纽约州），以及肯塔基州、内华达州和南卡罗来纳州由特朗普以两位数优势赢得的共和党空缺席位。
• That includes going after Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Abe Hamadeh (R-Ariz.) and Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), as well as open GOP seats in Kentucky, Nevada and South Carolina that Trump won by double digits.
- 在其他选举中，候选人正承担主要工作：对抗博伯特的民主党候选人伊琳·劳巴彻截至6月30日已筹集超过1000万美元，而共和党现任议员仅筹集100万美元。
• In other races, the candidates are doing the heavy lifting: Eileen Laubacher, the Democrat running against Boebert, raised over $10 million as of June 30 compared with the Republican incumbent's $1 million. The other side:
另一方：“民主党人在尚未计票前就进行了大量庆祝，把一个可笑的目标名单误认为是选举结果。……我们拥有更强的候选人和获胜的信息，”全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉在一份声明中告诉Axios。
"Democrats are doing an awful lot of celebrating before a single vote is counted, confusing a laughable target list with an election result. ... We have the stronger candidates and winning messages," NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella told Axios in a statement.