一系列经济和地缘政治动荡意味着，欧洲央行可能需要采取一种略微偏向货币紧缩的政策立场，这是竞逐接任行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的热门人选之一提出的观点。
A series of economic and geopolitical disruptions means the European Central Bank might need to embrace a policy stance that has a modest tilt toward monetary tightening, according to one of the frontrunners to succeed President Christine Lagarde.
“我确实认为存在金融碎片化，加上这些地缘政治风险的爆发，我认为这持续产生了一系列负面供给冲击，”克拉斯·诺特周四表示。“我担心在未来几年我们将看到更多此类情况。”对欧洲央行而言，“这将意味着它可能不得不更多时候从上方而非下方逼近其 2% 的目标，因此它可能也将被迫采取一种可以说略微偏鹰派的政策姿态，”他说。
“I do think there is financial fragmentation, and together with these outbursts of geopolitical risks, I think that continues to produce a series of of negative supply shocks,” Klaas Knot said on Thursday. “My fear is that we will see more of that in in the coming years.”For the ECB “that will imply that it will have to probably approach its 2% target more often from above than from below, and that therefore it will probably also be forced to have a policy posture that is, let us say, mildly on the hawkish side,” he said.
诺特担任荷兰央行行长期间，在 2025 年前担任了 14 年管委会成员。他表示，欧洲央行目前的“审慎”政策立场“是应采取的正确做法”。“你必须做必要的事，但要尽量少做，”他说。“欧洲央行享有极高的公信力，我认为在当前这种局势下，这种公信力大有裨益。”欧洲央行已加息两次，随着通胀升至三年高位，决策者普遍预计将在 12 月再次加息。
Knot, who as Dutch central bank chief was on the Governing Council for 14 years through 2025, said that the ECB’s current “measured” policy stance “is the right approach to take.”“You have to do what is necessary, but as little as possible,” he said. “The ECB enjoys a very high degree of credibility, and I think in situations like the current one, that credibility is a great help.”The ECB has raised interest rates twice and, with inflation at a three-year high, policymakers are widely expected to hike again in December.
“我们已经看到能源价格在相当长一段时间内维持在相当高的水平，因此我们看到总体通胀处于高位，”诺特说。“到目前为止，二轮效应非常、非常有限。”
“We’ve already seen energy prices being quite elevated over quite some period of time, so we’re seeing that headline inflation is elevated,” Knot said. “So far, the second-round effects are very, very contained.”
他强调，1 月将是观察工资的关键月份，因为那是“欧洲大部分工资合同将重新谈判的时候”。“但到目前为止，如果你听听工会等方面发出的言论，看起来相当负责任、相当温和，我认为部分原因也是因为人们真心相信欧洲央行始终对 2% 通胀目标认真对待，”他说。
He highlighted that January will be a key month to watch for wages, as that’s “when a large part of European wage contracts will be renegotiated.”“But so far, if you listen to the rhetoric coming out of the trade unions, etc. it looks quite sort of responsible and quite muted, and part of that I think is also due to the fact that people really believe that the ECB is always serious about 2% inflation,” he said.
转向债券市场的情况 — — 尤其是法国 — — 诺特表示：“今天谈论诸如”欧洲央行传输保护工具“之类的工具还为时过早。”
Turning to the situation on bond markets — particularly in France — Knot said that “today it is way too early to talk about instruments like” the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.
他还对暂停量化紧缩以消除金融市场不确定性来源的选项持审慎态度。
He also was circumspect on the option of halting quantitative tightening to remove a source of financial-market uncertainty.
“如果你想重新审视量化紧缩的决定，那不应是因为”债券市场的状况，他说。“那应当基于对经济结构性流动性需求的重新评估，欧洲央行需要运行多大的资产负债表，以及结构性政策的作用是什么。”
“If you want to revisit a decision on QT, it should not be because of conditions” in the bond markets, he said. “It should then be based on a renewed assessment of what are the structural liquidity needs in the economy, how big a balance sheet would the ECB need to run, and what is the role of the structural policy.”
他补充说，他“对这种可能性持开放态度，但如今将其用作某种危机工具，我非常怀疑它是否会减轻而非加剧危机感，而这当然是我们不愿看到的。”随着拉加德预计将在其任期结束前的下个月离任欧洲央行行长一职，欧洲官员正在为选拔她的继任者做准备。诺特被视为热门人选之一，另一人选是前西班牙央行行长帕布洛·埃尔南德斯·德科斯，他目前领导着国际清算银行。
He added that he’s “open to that possibility, but to use it now as a as a sort of crisis instrument, I doubt very much whether it would mitigate rather or increase the feeling of crisis, which of course we don’t want to do.”With Lagarde expected to leave her post at the helm of the ECB before her term ends next October, European officials are preparing to select her replacement. Knot is seen as a favorite, along with former Spanish central bank chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who now leads the Bank for International Settlements.