欧盟领导人将于周四前往峰会，寻求在圣诞节前达成协议，确定该集团近2万亿欧元的2028-2034年预算，尽管在支出问题上存在深刻分歧，且担心即将到来的选举——尤其是法国的选举——可能会强化反欧势力。
EU leaders head to a summit on Thursday seeking a deal on the bloc’s nearly €2 trillion budget for 2028-2034 by Christmas amid deep divisions over spending and fears that upcoming elections, particularly in France, could strengthen eurosceptic forces.
欧盟领导人将于周四前往峰会，就该集团下一个长期预算展开迄今为止最激烈的争论，因为他们正争分夺秒地希望在明年法国总统大选前锁定一项协议。
EU leaders on Thursday head for their biggest clash yet over the bloc's next long-term budget, as they race to lock in a deal before next year's French presidential election.
27国欧盟希望在圣诞节前达成协议，担心任何未来的谈判都可能因集团内各地即将举行的选举中可能出现的反欧胜利而被打乱——最关键的是法国这一关键大国。
The 27-nation European Union wants an agreement by Christmas, worried that any future dealmaking will be derailed by potential eurosceptic wins in polls taking place across the bloc – most crucially in key power France.
这种担心并非毫无根据。法国总统选举的领跑者、极右翼候选人玛丽娜·勒庞希望削减该国对欧盟预算的贡献，以帮助该集团第二大经济体实现成本节约。
The fears are not unfounded. The frontrunner in the French vote, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, wants to slash the country's contribution to the EU budget to help cost savings in the bloc's second-biggest economy.
勒庞在峰会前夕对欧盟施压，表示如果领导人在明年投票之前通过预算，那就是“民主丑闻”。
Putting the screws on the EU, Le Pen said on the eve of the summit that it would be a "democratic scandal" for leaders to adopt a budget before next year's votes.
关系重大的是近2万亿欧元的预算，它将决定欧盟在2028年至2034年期间的主要优先事项，从农业到国防，从竞争力到移民。
At stake is the nearly two-trillion-euro budget, which will determine the EU's main priorities for the period between 2028 and 2034, from agriculture to defence, competitiveness to migration.
领导人必须就向农民拨款多少、在国防上花费多少、如何使经济在美国和中国面前更具竞争力达成一致，以及是否要将欧洲资金投入到非洲的移民“遣返中心”。
The leaders must agree on how much to give to farmers, what to spend on defence and how to make the economy more competitive against the United States and China, and whether to pour European money into migrant "return hubs" in Africa.
随着最新的草案结论文件（日期为周三）仅提及“及时达成协议”，而此前版本中曾出现“年底前达成协议”的表述，欧盟领导人似乎对能否在12月前达成协议失去了信心。
EU leaders appear to be losing faith in an agreement by December as the latest draft conclusions dated Wednesday referred only to a "timely agreement" rather than "by the end of the year" featured in an earlier version.
无论如何，要在年底前达成协议都将是一项艰巨的任务，因为领导人仍然像以前一样分裂，有三个阵营对最新提案持反对意见。
A deal by year-end would be challenging in any case as the leaders remain as divided as ever, with three opposing camps unhappy with the latest proposal.
勒庞的阴影笼罩着谈判进程。随着意大利、波兰、希腊、芬兰和法国即将举行大选，各方都深感形势紧迫——人们意识到，若新上台的政府持疑欧立场，达成2027年预算协议将变得极为困难。
Spectre of Le Pen The sense of urgency is real, with elections looming in Italy, Poland, Greece, Finland and France – and the awareness that eurosceptic new governments could make it much harder to reach a 2027 deal.
即便目前勒庞仅是候选人，一位欧洲外交官指出：“明天她也会与各国领导人一同出席会谈。”她的潜在胜选前景令整个谈判氛围充满不确定性。
Even if Le Pen is just a candidate at this stage, a European diplomat said "she'll be in the room tomorrow" with the leaders, as her potential victory hangs over their talks.
倘若在4月至5月法国大选前无法达成协议，这些艰难的谈判便需在夏季重新启动。另一位欧盟外交官称，那将是“一场极其痛苦的过程”。
No agreement before France heads to the polls in April and May would mean the fraught negotiations restart in the summer, which a second EU diplomat said would be "an awful exercise".
目前担任欧盟轮值主席国的爱尔兰提出了最新提案，提议将欧盟预算总额削减约1400亿欧元，该方案将作为后续谈判的基础。
Ireland, which holds the rotating EU presidency, presented the latest proposal that will form the basis of the talks with cuts of some 140 billion euros to the budget total.
然而各方对此均不满意。以德国为首的“节俭派”阵营包括荷兰与瑞典等国，他们要求削减数千亿欧元的预算。另一边，法国则反对大幅削减预算，认为面对日益增多的挑战，欧盟需要更多资金予以应对。此外还有所谓的“凝聚力之友”阵营，他们主张增加专门用于农业与区域发展的拨款。
None of the camps was happy. e side is Germany, leading a group known as the "frugals" that includes the Netherlands and Sweden, who demand cuts of several hundred billion euros. In another corner is France, which opposes massive cuts to the budget and believes the continent needs a larger pot to match the rising challenges it faces. And in the third camp are the so-called "Friends of Cohesion", demanding more funding specifically to support agriculture and regional development.
法国方面已明确表示对削减预算的提议不满。一位法国官员警告称，若不能征收“数额可观”的新税项——包括针对大企业的税收、环境税以及烟草税，欧盟便无法达成任何协议。巴黎方面还希望在整个欧盟范围内对数字服务、加密货币及在线博彩征收税款，这一诉求也得到了欧洲议会的支持。
France has made clear it is unhappy with the focus on cuts, with a French official warning there can be no agreement without "substantial" new bloc-wide taxes including on large companies, environmental taxation and levies on tobacco. Paris wants EU-wide taxes on digital services, crypto-assets and online gambling, which the European Parliament also demands.
部分人士仍对12月达成协议抱有信心。周二，爱尔兰欧洲事务部长托马斯·伯恩表示，只要各方能达成妥协，“这是完全有可能的”。
Some are still optimistic for December. Ireland's Europe minister Thomas Byrne said on Tuesday it was possible "if compromise can be found".
目前，欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔将牵头主持谈判，为促成预算案顺利通过，11月底还将召开一次特别会议。
Now, European Council President Antonio Costa will lead negotiations, with an extraordinary meeting added in late November to help get the budget over the line.