One of China’s most outspoken demographers has called for raising childcare subsidies to at least 200,000 yuan (US$29,883) per child – more than 18 times the total offered under the current national scheme – to reverse the decline in births and strengthen the country’s long-term economic competitiveness.

James Liang, co-founder of Chinese online travel giant Trip.com Group, who has been vocal about Chinese demographics for years, made the proposal in an article published on Wednesday. Experts said this proposal could be a longer-term goal, with funding potentially coming from the central government or through redirecting some special-purpose bond funds.

Beijing introduced a nationwide childcare subsidy last year, offering households 3,600 yuan a year for each child born on or after January 1, 2025, until they turn three – a total of 10,800 yuan over three years. Some local governments have also introduced their own subsidies.

China recorded 7.92 million births in 2025, down from 12 million in 2020. Liang estimated that 8 million births would correspond to a total fertility rate of about 1.0 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population, and among the lowest rates in the world.

Liang warned that without substantially stronger government support, annual births could fall well below 8 million in the coming years, further threatening domestic demand and the workforce over the long term.

Under his proposal, a subsidy of at least 200,000 yuan per child could help raise the fertility rate significantly. By comparison, Norway, known for its generous family policies, offers a monthly child benefit that would total 434,592 kroner (US$45,758) per child over 18 years if the rate remained unchanged, according to the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration.

Liang said providing such an amount to 10 million children born in a year would cost about 2 trillion yuan for that birth cohort, equivalent to roughly 1.4 per cent of China’s gross domestic product in 2025. He added the amount would be lower than the 2.13 trillion yuan the country spent on export tax rebates last year.

Zhang Hua, the executive director of the Chinese Association for Improving Birth Outcome and Child Development’s inclusive childcare working committee, said he agreed with the need for greater support but considered 200,000 yuan too ambitious as an immediate target.

“Looking at the data and cases from other countries and regions cited in his article … you will find it is an overly ambitious target,” Zhang said. “A 200,000 yuan subsidy equals roughly twice per capita GDP and is 3.4 times South Korea’s level of support. No economy in the world has ever reached that level of support.”He suggested treating the figure as a medium- to long-term target towards 2030, with support expanded gradually. Funding could come from the central government, a reallocation of education spending to support children under three, expanded maternity insurance and employer-provided childcare, he said.

He cautioned against relying on new local government special bonds, arguing that borrowing over the short term to finance investments in human capital whose returns may take decades to materialise would create fiscal risks.

Liang has advocated more generous subsidies for some time. In August, he called for a package worth 62,000 yuan per child, arguing that it could boost China’s fertility rate by 25 per cent over the next couple of years.

At the time, he also proposed monthly payments of 1,500 to 2,000 yuan per child until the age of 18 to move the fertility rate closer to the replacement level of about 2.1.

Xing Zhaopeng, a senior China strategist at ANZ Research, said the latest proposed amount of 200,000 yuan was manageable when spread over 18 years, equivalent to an average of about 1,000 yuan a month per child.

Xing also suggested redirecting some existing government funding allocated to special-purpose bonds. He estimated that the subsidies could cost 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan a year, roughly half the annual special-purpose bond quota.

Liang’s call comes as Chinese policymakers struggle to reverse the country’s population decline, with expanding affordable childcare services becoming a key policy priority as Beijing seeks to ease the burden of raising children on households.

More public hospitals are opening childcare centres to expand access to care for young children. Last month, a childcare centre operated by a public hospital in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, opened with 125 places for children under three. Monthly fees range from 1,400 yuan to 2,000 yuan per child, depending on the age group.

Another centre, which opened in Ganzhou’s Shicheng county in March, offers care for children aged six to 36 months, charging up to 750 yuan per month per child.