Growing numbers operating in grey zone with 'substantial impunity' increasingly blamed on Russia As concerns rise about a Russian strike on NATO territory, the alliance’s top commander spelled out the consequences of any direct attack, promising Monday that “we will fight.”But countries belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are already contending with a menace that is much harder to fight and is increasingly stalking their skies with impunity.

Suspected Russian drones have repeatedly entered NATO airspace on its eastern flank, in countries like Romania and Poland, and the organization's jets have scrambled multiple times to head off a possible attack.

But there are also hundreds and hundreds of ambiguous drones that have been increasingly spotted over sensitive sites — military bases, nuclear power plants and airports — in NATO countries as far west as Germany, Belgium and France, causing disruptions at airports and exposing gaps in defence.

It has the hallmarks of a deliberate campaign to stoke fear and uncertainty — and the problem appears to be growing.

German authorities, for instance, have clocked more than 1,000 suspicious drone-related incidents since January 2025, CBC News has learned. That's about 1.5 incidents a day on average over “critical infrastructure, military facilities and defence companies,” according to the country's Federal Criminal Police Office.

Meanwhile, there were 261 overall drone-related disruptions at German airports or in its airspace between January and August, an 80 per cent year-over-year increase, according to a report obtained by CBC News from the country's air traffic control authority.

The mysterious drones repeatedly spotted across Europe are difficult to detect and intercept and, as a result, hard to attribute. But taken together, the pattern that emerges strongly suggests they are one element of a Russian hybrid campaign, say defence experts.

Ulrike Franke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. (CBC)“There is an increase in the absolute number,” said Ulrike Franke, one of Europe’s foremost drone experts, in an interview from Paris.

“And I'm comfortable to say that it is very likely, if not certainly, linked to Russian aggression towards Europe, and the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine and the war it sees itself in against the West." Hybrid warfare Mysterious drone-related incidents have occurred over Europe for years, prompting accusations of a below-the-radar “hybrid warfare,” meaning non-conventional means of undermining an adversary, staying below the threshold of an open war. But such incidents spiked in number last fall and now again appear to be on the rise.

Norway has seen more than 300 occurrences so far this year, leading to six airport interruptions, a spokesperson told CBC News. In the U.K., drone incidents near military bases have reportedly doubled over the past year. And in Belgium, there were 150 incidents over sensitive sites, per one media report.

On Sept. 12, a suspected drone sighting again interrupted flights at Brussels Airport. A week later, another diverted 19 flights from Luxembourg Airport, affecting nearly 2,000 passengers. Four days later, Berlin’s main airport was shut down after a drone was spotted over its north runway.

“It's hybrid warfare,” Elio Di Rupo, a member of the European Parliament and its security defence committee, and a former Belgian prime minister, said in an interview.

“It’s not only the drone war, but cyber attacks. And all together, it’s a real war, but we don’t see nobody, except indeed the drones.”Elio Di Rupo spoke with CBC News in Mons, Belgium, about what he says is a new kind of war. (David Iacoluccio/CBC) Exact numbers are hard to come by, making it a challenge to connect the dots across Europe.

CBC reached out to 11 national air traffic authorities, several EU organizations, research institutes and think-tanks as well as NATO.

NATO refused a request for a tally, referring CBC News to national authorities instead, which have various mechanisms to track data. European Union organizations were also unable to provide data, pointing out that defence is a national domain.

In one snapshot, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported 144 suspicious drones flew over sensitive sites with “substantial impunity" in a dozen NATO countries over 18 months ending in February.

The report adds they were likely launched from a Russian “shadow fleet” — tankers and other vessels that the country uses to clandestinely evade sanctions and export oil.

Russia has repeatedly rejected all such accusations.

This photo taken in October 2025 off the coast of France shows the tanker Boracay from Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet' suspected of being involved in drone flights over Denmark.

The authors of the IISS report point out their argument is not that every drone sighting was Russian, but that the overall pattern “cannot be adequately explained” by other means such as human error or hobby drones deployed incorrectly.

It also says that even having a large number of benign drones is, "if anything, analytically consistent with Russian operational design: engineering an environment of ambiguity," where real incursions are hard to distinguish from others.

Franke agrees it’s the pattern that speaks to Russia’s involvement: the type of drones, the time of day, their movements.

She also concurs that the uncertainty is the point.

“Russia benefits from our hysteria, and it benefits from the fact that of course there are going to be drone sightings, no matter what,” she said.

“This is the kind of genius of these hybrid attacks that it is so difficult to attribute, that there will be false positives… and [they] work so well, and are so difficult to deal with in open, democratic societies.”Turning point A turning point came on Aug. 4, with the discovery of a custom-built drone carrying explosives near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport, which is used as a hub for support sent to Ukraine.

A Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane stands at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug. 5.

German investigations concluded that the drone was hard evidence pointing to Russian involvement. The information the drone made possible has also reportedly since been key to mapping other escalating hybrid operations and connecting them to Russian intelligence.

The foiled Leipzig attack was the furthest into NATO territory such a dangerous attempt has been made since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“It tells us that Russia is definitely targeting countries and companies that are supporting Ukraine," said Michelle Haas, an associate fellow in the Europe in the World programme at Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.

"And one of the main goals is to get into our minds and make us believe that the cost of supporting Ukraine is too high." Michelle Haas is a PhD researcher at the Ghent Institute for International and European Studies. (David Iacolucci/CBC) The Leipzig incident also focused European attention and forced a co-ordinated response that included diplomatic and economic measures against Russia. Other EU countries and NATO allies including Canada issued statements of support for Germany and admonitions of Russia.

"Leipzig marks a new escalation on European Union soil directly attributed to Russia, but it is part of a broader pattern of increasingly dangerous incidents," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the time, hinting at Russia’s culpability in the bigger picture.

Initially reluctant to explicitly point the finger at Russia out of concern about escalation, European leaders now appear to be increasingly willing to do so. How to deter and repel future similar attacks, however, is still an open question.

Von der Leyen acknowledged such incidents may well be “the new normal" in Europe. Still, Haas said, they must be taken “very seriously."

Critical infrastructure should be protected better, she said. And European leaders must also prepare the public for more attacks without causing alarm, while being “very clear that there is something happening.”

“It’s also a question about: how do we make sure we don’t let this polarize us or destabilize us? Because that’s also part of the goal.”