瑞银全球财富管理预计美联储将在2027年3月第三次加息，将其紧缩周期延长至明年，原因是9月通胀高于预期，凸显价格压力广泛化。
UBS Global Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for a third time in March 2027, extending its tightening cycle into next year after stronger-than-expected September inflation underscored broadening price pressures.
美联储在9月加息25个基点，这是自2023年以来的首次加息，瑞银预计12月将再次加息25个基点。
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023, and UBS expects another quarter-point hike in December.
“商品通胀走强与服务业通胀强劲的组合支持美联储维持较高利率更长时间的预期，” 瑞银经济学家安德鲁·杜宾斯基在周一的报告中表示。
"The combination of stronger goods inflation with strong services inflation supports a higher-for-longer Fed outlook," UBS economist Andrew Dubinsky said in a note on Wednesday.
随着通胀压力被证明比预期更具持续性，全球央行已表明他们准备维持更长时间的紧缩货币政策。
With inflation pressures proving more persistent than expected, central banks globally have signaled they are prepared to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
瑞银补充称，人工智能驱动的需求、中东相关的供应链中断以及贸易政策不确定性等风险可能使美联储倾向于更长时间维持紧缩政策。
UBS added that risks from AI-driven demand, Middle East-related supply disruptions and trade policy uncertainty could keep the Fed biased toward tighter policy for longer.
“更长的紧缩周期旨在确保通胀预期保持稳定，而由于多重冲击叠加，通胀仍将维持在3%左右，” 瑞银表示。美联储将于10月27日至28日举行会议。
"The longer tightening cycle is designed to ensure inflation expectations stay anchored while inflation remains near 3% due to overlapping shocks," UBS said. The Fed is scheduled to meet on October 27-28.
根据CME的FedWatch数据，利率期货显示10月会议加息的概率约为27%，高于CPI报告前的21.6%；12月加息的概率为89.5%。
Interest-rate futures are pricing in a roughly 27% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting, up from 21.6% before the CPI report, and an 89.5% chance of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch data.