参议院选举这场全国性的对决正在暗中进行，因为今年的民意调查接连出现惊人失误，尤其是在密歇根州。此前，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与海莉·史蒂文斯之间的初选战况调查显示，埃尔-赛义德始终保持着两位数的领先优势。然而实际上，他仅以1%的微弱优势获胜，远未达到此前预测的10%至18%。事实证明，这些民调可能抑制了投票率，并促使部分史蒂文斯的支持者选择待在家里。
The nationwide duel for the Senate is going on in the dark because polling this year has produced a series of spectacular busts, especially in Michigan, where polls on the primary battle between Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens posted double-digit lead after double-digit lead for El-Sayed. In fact, El-Sayed won by 1% — not the 10-18% that had been predicted. It turns out those polls may have suppressed voter turnout and encouraged some Stevens voters to stay home.
然而，在即将到来的大选中，关注新闻的选民们恐怕不会在密歇根州选择袖手旁观。埃尔-赛义德——即便以最宽容的角度来看——也只是一个伊斯兰主义的辩护者。他既无法为自己的过往言论负责，也无法为自己的竞选言论做出澄清。
It is doubtful anyone following the news will stay home in Michigan in the general election. El-Sayed is — at best! — an Islamist apologist. He cannot own his past statements or campaign rhetoric.
他拒绝谈论初选中最支持他的那个人：极左翼直播主兼YouTube名人哈桑·皮克尔，此人既有些疯狂，又带有极端主义倾向。正是皮克尔帮助埃尔-赛义德在初选中脱颖而出，但如今，当被问及皮克尔时，选民们却必须接受埃尔-赛义德的含糊其辞。
He refuses to discuss his most prominent supporter in the primary: far-left streamer and YouTube personality Hasan Piker, who is part crazy and part extremist. Piker carried El-Sayed over the finish line in the primary, but now voters are supposed to accept El-Sayed’s deflections when questioned about him.
一家历史悠久的报纸因埃尔-赛义德隐瞒过往而对其提出严厉批评，同时支持他的对手。埃尔-赛义德是个激进分子。他几乎从未掩饰过对美国盟友以色列的敌意，甚至将以色列与伊朗伊斯兰共和国相提并论。当然，自1979年革命以来，伊朗就一直与美国处于战争状态。该政权导致超过一千名美国人丧生：无论是1983年黎巴嫩真主党（伊朗的代理势力）炸毁美国驻贝鲁特大使馆和海军陆战队营房的事件，还是上周末胡塞武装（另一支伊朗代理势力）用导弹袭击沙特阿拉伯利雅得国际机场，造成一名美国人死亡的事件。
HISTORIC NEWSPAPER GIVES EL-SAYED A SAVAGE REBUKE FOR HIDING HIS PAST WHILE ENDORSING HIS OPPONENT El-Sayed is a radical. He’s done very little to hide his antipathy toward America’s ally Israel, going so far as to equate Israel with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran has, of course, been at war with the United States since its revolution in 1979. That regime is responsible for the deaths of more than a thousand Americans, whether blown up at the U.S. Embassy or the Marine Corps barracks in Beirut in 1983 by Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, or this past weekend, when another American was killed by another Iranian proxy, the Houthis, via a Houthi missile attack on the international airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
即便如此，埃尔-赛义德也不能仅仅宣称以色列是我们的盟友，而伊朗是我们的敌人。这一立场就足以让所有人了解埃尔-赛义德的真实面目，也将在11月3日的选举中让他付出代价。
Still, El-Sayed cannot simply declare that Israel is our ally and Iran is our enemy. That should tell everyone all they need to know about El-Sayed and cost him on November 3.
EL-SAYED 试图与犹太裔民主党人和解，但对抛弃 HASAN PIKER 划了界限 美国全国范围内，民主党提名了各种边缘候选人，从密歇根州的 El-Sayed 到得克萨斯州的 James Talarico，明尼苏达州的 Peggy Flanagan 以及缅因州的 Troy Jackson。这看起来像是全国民主委员会在提名候选人方面付出了极少努力，或者他们只是把骰子扔向一张标有“保证失败”的板子上。
EL-SAYED TRIES TO MAKE PEACE WITH JEWISH DEMOCRATS BUT DRAWS LINE AT DUMPING HASAN PIKER All across the country, Democrats have nominated candidates from the fringe, from El-Sayed in Michigan to James Talarico in Texas, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota and Troy Jackson in Maine. It’s as though the Democratic National Committee put zero effort into candidate recruitment, or maybe they just threw darts at a board marked with "Guaranteed to Lose" at the top.
但 El-Sayed 是众多候选人中最糟糕的……差距巨大。随着反对派研究揭露关于 El-Sayed 过去的事实——他曾声称拥有双重国籍，随后又否认了这一说法——这些旧录像和推文频频浮出水面，距离投票日还有不到三周时间，预计更多此类“老骨头”将陆续曝光。
But El-Sayed is the worst of the lot … by a lot. And the stories keep coming as opposition research reveals facts about El-Sayed’s past that he has tried to hide, including his claim of dual citizenship, which he has subsequently repudiated. With nearly three weeks left before polls close, it’s fair to expect that more such old tape and tweets will surface.
FETTERMAN “DARES” EL-SAYED TO STICK WITH PIKER, CLAIMS MICHIGAN NOMINEE HAS ‘LITTLE MAN SYNDROME ENERGY’ El-Sayed 的共和党对手、前众议员迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）则截然不同，他是一位主流且温和的密歇根州人，在担任陆军军官后转入密歇根州立法机构，随后在众议院任职超过十年，并最终成为众议院情报委员会主席。
FETTERMAN 'DARES' EL-SAYED TO STICK WITH PIKER, CLAIMS MICHIGAN NOMINEE HAS 'LITTLE MAN SYNDROME ENERGY' El-Sayed’s Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is, by contrast, a mainstream and moderate Michigander, a former FBI agent and lieutenant in the Army before he went on to serve in the Michigan legislature and then for more than a decade in the House of Representatives, finishing there as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. (That’s significant, by the way, as the Intelligence Committee is a select committee, with members selected by the speaker and the House minority leader, traditionally because of their national security chops.)
（这点很重要，因为情报委员会是委员会，其成员由议长和众议院少数党领袖遴选，传统上因其在国家安全方面的经验。）罗杰斯对抗 El-Sayed 本不应当接近。而且很可能不会，因为 El-Sayed 最近被报道称难以与密歇根州的黑人社区建立联系——这是民主党在“老虎州”（密歇根州）赢得选举的传统基础。
Rogers v. El-Sayed ought not to be close. And chances are it won’t be because of El-Sayed’s reported difficulty connecting with Detroit’s Black community, on which Democrats traditionally rely to win in the Wolverine State.
罗杰斯在埃尔-赛德初选胜利后向民主党选民敞开大门：“仍有希望”报告层出不穷，暗指底特律及其周边地区黑人和阿拉伯裔美国人社区长期存在的疏离，但几乎没有民意调查机构知道如何解释黑人选民对埃尔-赛德所抱的敌意。
ROGERS OPENS DOOR TO DEMOCRATIC VOTERS AFTER EL-SAYED’S PRIMARY VICTORY: ‘THERE IS STILL HOPE’ Report after report hints at the long-standing estrangement between the Black and Arab American communities in and around Detroit, but hardly any pollster knows how to account for the antipathy felt toward El-Sayed by Black voters.
前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前总统贝拉克·奥巴马的竞选走访，已经是能发出的最接近“打碎玻璃，拉响警报”紧急信号的举动，但它们并未奏效。
Campaign drop-bys by former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama are as close to "break glass, pull alarm" emergency signals as you can get, but they are not doing the trick.
密歇根州的黑人选民和犹太裔民主党人对投票给埃尔-赛德持保留态度，他们说：“他在占便宜。”
BLACK VOTERS, JEWISH DEMOCRATS IN MICHIGAN WARY OF VOTING FOR EL-SAYED, SAY 'HE'S TAKING ADVANTAGE' The trouble?
问题在于？传统民主党人认识埃尔-赛德。他曾经参加过政治竞选，而且之前也输过。他简历上没有“讨人喜欢和和善”这一项。如果说有什么的话，他是几十年来我们看到的最愤怒的主要政党候选人。他拒绝回答关于派克尔的基本问题，关于他家庭据称与穆斯林兄弟会的关系，以及“全民医保”对工会谈判得到的医疗保健计划的影响（前者会毁掉后者）的问题，这使埃尔-赛德显得不可信赖。
Traditional Democrats know El-Sayed. He’s run for political office before. And lost before. "Winsome and gracious" is not on his resume. If anything, he’s the angriest major-party candidate we’ve seen in decades. His refusal to answer basic questions about Piker, about his family’s alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, and about the impact of "Medicare for All" on union-negotiated health care plans (the former would destroy the latter) marks El-Sayed as untrustworthy.
选举之夜对罗杰斯的早期预测将为共和党锁定参议院多数席位。（这一结果可能已经通过缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯和新罕布什尔州参议员约翰·苏努努的胜利得以实现，但如果罗杰斯在11月3日能够早早得到这一预测，将是一个巨大的慰藉。）除了仅仅让更优秀的候选人赢得选举之外，罗杰斯战胜埃尔-赛德的胜利还将是对温和与成熟的胜利，也是对那种民主党在深蓝城市选区之外并未 flirt 过的极端主义的拒绝——那些选区曾把AOC、伊尔汉·奥马尔以及“小队”其他成员送往华盛顿特区。
An early call for Rogers on election night will secure the Senate majority for Republicans. (That result might have already been accomplished by victories for Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and John Sununu in New Hampshire, but Rogers getting the call early on November 3 would be a great relief.) Beyond simply having the far better man win an election, though, the victory of Rogers over El-Sayed will be a win for moderation and maturity and a rejection of the sort of extremism that Democrats have not flirted with outside of the deep-blue urban districts that sent AOC, Ilhan Omar and the rest of "The Squad" to D.C.
美国需要两个主流政党，它们必须致力于在美国政治的“40码线”之间进行博弈。如果民主党落入像埃尔-赛义德这样的极端分子掌控之中，将对所有人造成灾难性后果，尤其是对民主党自身而言。
The United States needs two mainstream parties committed to playing between the 40-yard lines of American politics. Losing the Democrats to the control of extremists like El-Sayed would be terrible for everyone, including, and most especially, the Democratic Party.
休·休伊特是福克斯新闻的撰稿人，也是《休·休伊特秀》的主持人。该节目于美国东部时间工作日下午3点至6点在塞勒姆广播网络播出，并在塞勒姆新闻频道同步转播。休·休伊特的节目通过全国超过400家附属电台覆盖美国东海岸的听众，并在西海岸的午餐时段播出，同时也可在塞勒姆新闻频道（SNC）的所有流媒体平台上观看。
Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen.
他经常作为嘉宾出席福克斯新闻频道由布雷特·拜尔主持的每周四晚6点（美国东部时间）的新闻圆桌讨论。作为俄亥俄州之子，休伊特毕业于哈佛大学和密歇根大学法学院，自1996年起担任查普曼大学福勒法学院的法律教授，教授宪法课程。1990年，他在洛杉矶创办了以自己名字命名的广播节目。40年的广播生涯中，休伊特频繁亮相各大全国性电视新闻频道，曾为PBS和MSNBC主持电视节目，为美国各大报纸撰稿，撰写了十几本书，并主持过多场共和党候选人辩论，最近一次是2023年11月在迈阿密举行的共和党总统候选人辩论，以及2015-2016年选举周期中的四场共和党总统辩论。
He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle.
他的广播节目和专栏主要聚焦宪法、国家安全、美国政治，以及克利夫兰布朗队和守护者队。在长达40年的广播生涯中，休伊特采访过数以万计的嘉宾，从民主党人希拉里·克林顿和约翰·克里，到共和党总统乔治·W·布什和唐纳德·特朗普。本专栏将提前介绍他今日广播/电视节目中的头条内容。
Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.