法国2026年的温室气体排放量预计将下降2.8%，略高于去年——但脱碳速度仍远低于实现该国气候目标所需的水平。
France’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by 2.8 percent in 2026, slightly more than last year – but the pace of decarbonisation remains well below what is needed to meet the country’s climate targets.
根据负责编制法国国家排放清单的组织Citepa周二发布的估算数据，今年排放量预计将达到约3.494亿吨二氧化碳当量。
Emissions are forecast to reach around 349.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year, according to estimates published on Tuesday by Citepa, the organisation responsible for compiling France’s national emissions inventory.
这一预测降幅优于2025年录得的2.1%的下降幅度，当时减排进展有所放缓。
The projected fall represents an improvement on the 2.1 percent decline recorded in 2025, when progress in cutting emissions slowed.
但Citepa表示，整体情况并不均衡。2026年上半年排放量下降了4.1%，而下半年降幅预计将放缓至仅1.3%，部分原因是能源部门的排放量预计将有所上升。
But Citepa said the picture was uneven. Emissions fell by 4.1 percent during the first half of 2026, while the decline is expected to slow to just 1.3 percent during the second half, partly because of an anticipated rise in emissions from the energy sector.
法国当前的气候路线图要求，到2030年，温室气体排放量需较1990年水平减少50%。要实现这一目标，2024年至2030年间每年需实现约5%的减排。
France’s current climate roadmap calls for greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 50 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Meeting that objective would require annual reductions of around 5 percent between 2024 and 2030.
Citepa表示：“因此，未来几年减排速度必须加快，才能保持在碳预算范围内并实现法国的目标。”
“The reduction in emissions will therefore need to speed up over the coming years to stay within carbon budgets and meet France’s targets,” Citepa said.
法国气候行动网络（该网络汇集了多个环保组织）的项目主管安妮·布林戈表示，法国的生态转型尚未达到必要的速度。
Anne Bringault, programme director at the Climate Action Network France, which brings together a number of environmental organisations, said France’s ecological transition had yet to reach the pace necessary.
生态转型部长莫妮克·巴尔布特称最新的降幅“令人鼓舞”，同时承认这“尚不足以实现我们的气候目标”。
Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut described the latest decline as “encouraging”, while acknowledging that it was “not yet sufficient to meet our climate targets”.
气候报告显示，全球变暖1.5°C的临界点将在2030年前被突破。建筑和交通领域的减排最为显著，其中住宅和商业建筑表现最佳，预计2026年全年的排放量将下降5.9%。
Climate report shows 1.5C limit on global warming will be breached by 2030 Buildings and transport lead reductions The strongest improvement has come from residential and commercial buildings, where emissions are expected to fall by 5.9 percent over 2026 as a whole.
Citepa表示，减排主要与取暖、热水和烹饪的排放降低有关，特别是由于天然气消费下降。交通运输部门也记录了显著下降，预计今年排放将减少4.8%。
Citepa said the reduction was largely linked to lower emissions from heating, hot water and cooking, particularly because of a decline in natural gas consumption. Transport has also recorded a significant fall, with emissions forecast to drop by 4.8 percent this year.
根据Citepa的数据，这一改善在很大程度上反映了柴油消费的大幅下降，2026年上半年销量下降了7.3%。
According to Citepa, much of that improvement reflects a sharp decline in diesel consumption, with sales down 7.3 percent in the first half of 2026.
这一下降与燃料价格飙升同时发生，价格上涨由全球能源供应中断引起，包括伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡、乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源基础设施以及中东战事重燃。
The fall coincided with a surge in fuel prices caused by disruption to global energy supplies, including Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed fighting in the Middle East.
布里诺表示，价格压力强化了减少法国对进口化石燃料依赖的理由。
Bringault said the price pressures reinforced the case for reducing France’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.
她说：“中东战争导致燃料和取暖价格高企，以及干旱和热浪因气候变化加剧导致食品价格上涨，正变得令许多家庭和企业难以承受。”
“High prices for fuel and heating following the war in the Middle East, as well as for foodstuffs due to droughts and heatwaves exacerbated by climate change, are becoming unsustainable for many households and businesses,” she said.
“摆脱对进口化石燃料的依赖并提供替代方案显得更加紧迫。” 法国敦促加快削减甲烷，因排放仍处于创纪录高位 能源排放上升 虽然大多数行业预计今年排放将降低，但能源行业却朝相反方向发展。Citepa表示，该行业“因预计2026年排放上升而引人注目”。
“Moving away from imported fossil fuels and providing alternative solutions is all the more urgent.”France urges faster methane cuts as emissions remain at record high Energy emissions rising While most sectors are expected to record lower emissions this year, energy is moving in the opposite direction. Citepa said the sector “stands out due to an expected rise in emissions in 2026”.
在上半年略有下降后，排放预计将在下半年再次增加，特别是由于发电相关排放增加。
After falling slightly during the first half of the year, emissions are expected to increase again during the second half, particularly because of higher emissions associated with electricity generation.
Citepa最新的清单未计入土地利用和森林的排放与碳吸收，后者通常作为主要碳汇，从大气中移除二氧化碳。
Citepa’s latest inventory does not take into account emissions and carbon absorption from land use and forests, which normally act as a major carbon sink by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
然而，近年来它们面临越来越大压力，干旱、热浪和野火削弱了自然生态系统吸收碳的能力。
However, they have come under increasing pressure in recent years, with drought, heatwaves and wildfires weakening the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb carbon.
Citepa表示，今年夏季野火的规模尤其惊人。1月1日至8月27日期间，法国本土约有7.7万公顷土地被烧毁，不包括受控燃烧的区域。据估计，这些火灾向大气中释放了约570万吨二氧化碳当量。
Citepa said the scale of this summer’s fires was particularly striking. Around 77,000 hectares of land were burnt in mainland France between 1 January and 27 August, excluding areas subject to controlled burning. The fires are estimated to have released around 5.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere.
这一数字比同样遭遇异常严重野火的2022年高出43%，也超过了2025年记录水平的一倍多。
That was 43 percent more than in 2022, another year marked by exceptionally severe wildfires, and more than twice the level recorded in 2025.