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非洲汇市:肯尼亚和乌干达货币承压AFRICA-FX-Kenyan and Ugandan currencies under strain

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2026年10月14日,乌干达坎帕拉,随着美元汇率持续攀升,一名出纳员在外汇兑换局的收银亭内清点乌干达先令纸币。路透社/阿布巴克尔·卢博瓦A teller handles Ugandan shilling notes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau as the dollar rate continues to escalate in Kampala, Uganda, October 14, 2026. REUTERS/Abubaker Lubowa

肯尼亚和乌干达的货币预计将在未来一周至周四面临压力,而加纳货币可能延续涨势,赞比亚和尼日利亚的货币则可能基本持平,交易员表示。

The currencies of Kenya and Uganda are expected to be under pressure in the next week to Thursday, while Ghana's could extend gains and those of Zambia and Nigeria may be little changed, traders said.

由于石油经销商和一般进口商对美元的需求增加,肯尼亚先令在长期稳定后预计将走弱,不过慈善机构带来的资金流入或能限制跌幅。

Kenya's shilling is seen losing ground after a long period of stability due to increased dollar demand from oil marketers and general importers, though inflows from charities could limit the losses.

周四,商业银行报出的先令汇率为每美元129.75/95,与一周前持平。尽管央行本周紧急加息,乌干达先令仍可能小幅下跌。

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 129.75/95 per dollar on Thursday, unchanged from a week earlier. Uganda's shilling could edge lower despite this week's emergency interest rate hike by the central bank.

虽然周三加息2.25个百分点令先令一度走强,但交易员表示,出口收入疲软和能源价格高企意味着该货币很快将再次面临阻力。

While the 2.25-percentage-point hike provided an immediate lift to the shilling on Wednesday, traders said weaker export receipts and high energy prices mean the currency will face headwinds again soon.

“我认为先令将继续因相同的基本面因素而走弱,但贬值速度可能会慢得多,”一位交易员表示。

"I would think the shilling will continue weakening driven by the same fundamentals, but possibly the depreciation will be at a much slower pace," a trader said.

商业银行报出的先令汇率为每美元3,990/4,000,而上周四的收盘价为4,080/4,090。

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,990/4,000 to the dollar, compared to last Thursday's close of 4,080/4,090.

加纳塞迪预计将延续本周的涨势,这得益于矿业部门强劲的外汇流入以及银行间市场流动性的改善。

Ghana's cedi is expected to add to this week's gains, helped by strong foreign-exchange inflows from the mining sector and improving interbank market liquidity.

LSEG数据显示,塞迪汇率从一周前的11.73升至11.60。

LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.60 from 11.73 a week ago.

“未来一周,塞迪对美元可能延续涨势,因为矿业部门强劲的外汇流入将超过本地企业账户的需求,”加纳Absa银行交易主管安德鲁斯·阿科托表示。

"The cedi is likely to extend its rally against the dollar in the coming week, as strong mining-sector FX inflows outweigh demand from local corporate accounts," said Andrews Akoto, head of trading at Absa Bank Ghana.

赞比亚克瓦查预计将保持稳定,这得益于企业出售硬通货以筹集本地资金,用于支付月底的债务。

Zambia's kwacha is expected to hold steady, supported by hard-currency sales from companies raising local funds to meet month-end obligations.

周四,商业银行以每美元20.18克瓦查的价格出售美元,而一周前为20.23。

Commercial banks were selling one dollar at 20.18 kwacha on Thursday, compared with 20.23 a week earlier.

“尽管进口商对(外币)的需求持续带来压力,但企业也会出售美元以支付工资和其他月底应付款项,”一位金融分析师表示。

"Despite persistent pressure arising from (foreign-currency) demand from importers, corporates will also be selling dollars to pay salaries and other month-end dues," a financial analyst said.

尼日利亚奈拉汇率整体基本未变,这得益于中央银行的美元出售以及外资流入。

Nigeria's naira may be broadly unchanged, supported by central bank dollar sales and foreign inflows.

周四,该货币在官方市场的报价为1美元兑1,329奈拉,与一周前的1,331相比变化不大。而在街头交易中,该货币的汇率约为1美元兑1,375奈拉。

The unit was quoted at 1,329 to the dollar on the official market on Thursday, little changed from 1,331 a week ago. The currency was changing hands at around 1,375 to the dollar in street trading .

一位交易员表示:“我们预计未来一周奈拉汇率将总体保持稳定,这主要归因于尼日利亚中央银行的美元出售。”

"We expect to see a broadly stable naira in the coming week, largely due to the Central Bank of Nigeria dollar sales," a trader said.