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经济学人

为什么委内瑞拉监狱中仍有政治犯在受苦?Why do political prisoners still languish in Venezuela’s jails?

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罗德奥(Rodeo)是位于委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯附近的一所臭名昭著的监狱。在该监狱的某座塔楼里,那些得罪了该国专制政权的人被关押在狭小的牢房里,这些牢房的厕所是露天式的。那里的气温极高、环境极其恶劣(充满污秽和臭味),而且还有大量昆虫。牢房里播放着宣传性内容。更糟糕的是,囚犯们还会遭受折磨。

RODEO IS A notorious prison near Caracas, Venezuela’s capital. In one of its towers, people who fell foul of the country’s grim regime are held in tiny cells with open latrines. The heat, smell and bugs are unbearable. Televisions play propaganda. And then there is the torture.

32岁的维尔德·巴斯克斯(Wilder Vásquez)曾作为政治犯在该监狱被关押了近三年;他说,监狱的看守在迎接他时曾嘲讽道:“只有上帝才能把你从这里救出去。”最终,他是通过唐纳德·特朗普的帮助才得以获释的。九个月前,美国总统派遣特种部队逮捕了前独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro),但随后却让马杜罗的副手德尔西·罗德里格斯(Delcy Rodríguez)接替了他的位置。

Wilder Vásquez, 32, who was held there as a political prisoner for almost three years, says the director welcomed him to the prison with a taunt: “Only God can get you out of here.”In the end, he was sprung by Donald Trump. It is nine months since America’s president dispatched special forces to snatch Nicolás Maduro, the former dictator—only to replace him with his deputy, Delcy Rodríguez. Mr Trump boasts of his control over Venezuela.

特朗普一直宣称自己能够控制委内瑞拉的局势。据非政府组织“Foro Penal”称,目前仍有超过300名政治犯被关押在罗德奥监狱中。这些囚犯的家属中,有些人甚至在监狱门外露营,他们试图理解为什么自己的亲人会遭受这样的待遇。

Mr Vásquez is one of 1,104 political prisoners who have since been released. Yet there are still more than 300 languishing behind bars, many in Rodeo, according to Foro Penal, an NGO. Relatives of these inmates, some of them camping outside the prison gates, struggle to understand why.

危机组织(Crisis Group)的分析师菲尔·冈森(Phil Gunson)指出,这一事件凸显了美国与委内瑞拉新关系中的紧张局势。特朗普政府对德尔西·罗德里格斯拥有巨大的影响力——他们完全有能力像之前逮捕马杜罗那样再次逮捕她。美国还控制着委内瑞拉的石油出口,但同时仍依赖罗德里格斯领导的政权来管理国家的日常事务。冈森表示:“美国不可能一夜之间就按照自己的意愿重塑委内瑞拉的局势。”

The issue underlines tensions at the heart of the new relationship between the United States and Venezuela, says Phil Gunson, an analyst with Crisis Group, another NGO. The Trump administration has extraordinary leverage over Ms Rodríguez. Everyone knows that it could snatch her, just as it snatched her boss. The United States controls Venezuela’s oil exports, too. And yet it still depends on Ms Rodríguez’s regime to run Venezuela day-to-day. “The United States cannot simply remake Venezuela in the way we want overnight,” says Mr Gunson.

美国在委内瑞拉的主要目标依次是经济利益、国家稳定以及民主制度的建立。美国不希望重蹈伊拉克的覆辙:在伊拉克,政权的更迭导致了内战的发生。因此,美国选择让查韦斯主义政权继续掌权。虽然该政权推行了一些经济改革,但德尔西·罗德里格斯可能认为,过于迅速或过度的政治变革可能会破坏这些改革成果。非政府组织“Foro Penal”的阿尔弗雷多·罗梅罗(Alfredo Romero)指出:“我们仍然生活在德尔西统治下的世界里。”

America’s priorities in Venezuela are business, stability and democracy—in that order. It does not want to repeat mistakes made in Iraq, where regime change led to civil war. So it has kept the chavistas in power. The regime has churned out economic reforms. But Ms Rodríguez may be arguing that too much political change, too quickly, risks derailing that process. “We are still in Delcy’s world,” says Alfredo Romero of Foro Penal.

政治犯对现政权来说具有重要的利用价值:他们不仅是与美国人进行谈判的筹码;他们的持续被关押也向委内瑞拉人民表明,该政权镇压异见的能力依然完好无损。自马杜罗被捕以来,委内瑞拉人民的恐惧情绪有所减轻,抗议活动也随之增加——8月份的抗议人数几乎是去年同期的四倍。安德烈娜·巴杜埃尔(Andréína Baduel)指出,现政权需要维持某种程度的“社会控制”。

Political prisoners are useful for the regime. They are not only chips for bartering with the Americans; their continued incarceration helps make clear to Venezuelans that the regime’s ability to quash dissent remains intact. Venezuelans have been less fearful since Mr Maduro was arrested. Protests are rising: August saw almost four times as many as in the same month last year. The regime needs to retain a degree of “social control”, says Andreína Baduel.

她的父亲劳尔·巴杜埃尔(Raúl Baduel)于2021年死于狱中;她的兄弟霍斯纳尔斯(Josnars)目前仍被关押在罗德奥(Rodeo)监狱中。

Her late father, Raúl Baduel, died a political prisoner in 2021. Her brother Josnars is currently in Rodeo.

一些政治犯的看守心怀怨恨,需要通过某种方式才能被说服释放这些囚犯;而在剩余的政治犯中,几乎有一半人曾有军事背景,他们大多是被指控参与叛乱的高级军官。美国马里兰海军学院的学者约翰·波尔加-赫西莫维奇(John Polga-Hecimovich)认为,将这些囚犯关押起来其实是一种控制武装力量的手段。现政权可能担心:如果这些囚犯获释,他们可能会向美国检察官透露政权的腐败行为及其参与毒品交易的事实。

Some political prisoners have a specific jailer: a person with a grudge who needs to be convinced to release them. And almost half of those remaining have a military past. Many are senior officers accused of rebellion. Keeping them locked up is a way of controlling the armed forces, says John Polga-Hecimovich, an academic at the US Naval Academy in Maryland. The regime could be worrying that, if released, some of them might talk to United States prosecutors about the regime’s corruption and involvement in drug trafficking.

10月8日,美国以使用酷刑来维持权力的罪名起诉了马杜罗及其妻子西莉亚·弗洛雷斯(Cilia Flores)。许多囚犯都曾亲身经历过酷刑。巴杜埃尔女士提到,她兄弟的膝盖和肩膀韧带都受到了严重损伤;他在牢房里使用厕所时必须蹲下,这种姿势令人痛苦不堪。希奥万卡·阿维拉(Hiowanka Ávila)的兄弟因被指控参与用无人机暗杀马杜罗的阴谋而被捕,他遭受了殴打、电击和窒息等酷刑,还被强迫保持痛苦的姿势并长时间被悬挂在手腕上。“而这仅仅只是身体上的折磨而已,”阿维拉女士说。

On October 8th the US indicted Mr Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, for using torture to hold power. Many prisoners tell stories of that. Ms Baduel says the ligaments in her brother’s knees and shoulders are broken. Squatting over the latrine in his cell is agony. Hiowanka Ávila, whose brother was arrested for alleged involvement in an attempt to assassinate Mr Maduro with a drone, says he was beaten, electrocuted and asphyxiated. He was put in stress positions and left hanging from his wrists for days. “And that was just the physical torture,” says Ms Ávila.

自马杜罗先生被紧急带走以来,罗迪奥的情况已经有所改善。家属在探视期间已被允许与亲人相拥。每位囚犯都得到了一张枕头。针对他们的暴力行为也已减少。在监狱外扎营的家属们仍然希望亲人能尽快获释(前一页图片为监狱附近的一场游行)。但与此同时,他们也担心某些因素可能会中断政治过渡进程。巴杜埃尔女士表示:“对委内瑞拉人来说,这场恐怖事件尚未完全结束。”

Conditions in Rodeo have improved since Mr Maduro was whisked away. Families have been allowed to embrace their relatives during visits. Each prisoner has been given a pillow. The violence against them has abated. The families who camp outside the prison still hope their loved ones will be released soon (a procession near the prison is pictured on the previous page). But they are anxious, too, that something might curtail the political transition. Says Ms Baduel: “This episode of horror for Venezuelans is not totally over yet.