根据德国经济研究所（IW）周四发布的数据，由于关键工业领域的不平衡现象日益严重，德国今年对华贸易逆差预计将首次超过1000亿欧元（约合1120亿美元）。
Germany's trade deficit with China is expected to exceed €100 billion ($112 billion) for the first time this year, driven by widening imbalances in key industrial sectors, the German Economic Institute (IW) said Thursday.
该研究所表示，如果2026年上半年的贸易趋势持续到全年，这一逆差将超过2019年水平的7倍（2019年德国对华贸易逆差为141亿欧元）。
The deficit would be more than seven times its 2019 level of €14.1 billion if trade trends from the first half of 2026 continue through the rest of the year, the institute said.
在上半年，德国从中国的进口额几乎是出口额的2.5倍。预计今年的年度贸易逆差将超过2025年创下的约900亿欧元的纪录。
Germany imported almost 2.5 times as much from China as it exported to the country in the first six months. The projected annual deficit would surpass the previous record of about €90 billion in 2025.
德国对中国的商品出口额预计将比2019年下降约25%，而从中国的进口额则预计将上升约62%。
German goods exports to China are projected to be roughly 25% below their 2019 level, while imports from China are expected to be about 62% higher.
受压的核心工业领域：汽车行业是导致贸易逆差增加的主要因素——自2019年以来，汽车行业对贸易逆差的贡献率达到了近24%。德国对中国的汽车出口额预计将从2019年的230多亿欧元降至今年的约10亿欧元；同期，德国从中国的汽车进口额将增长54%，而从中国进口的汽车零部件则将增长超过475%。
Core industrial sectors under pressure The automotive industry accounts for almost 24% of the projected increase in the deficit since 2019, making it the largest individual contributor. Germany's automotive trade surplus with China is expected to shrink from more than €23 billion in 2019 to about €1 billion this year. Automotive exports to China are projected to fall 54% over that period, while imports of Chinese vehicles and parts are expected to rise more than 475%.
电气设备领域的贸易逆差：预计电气设备的贸易逆差将超过240亿欧元，而2019年这一数字仅为48亿欧元。
The trade deficit in electrical equipment is forecast to exceed €24 billion, compared with €4.8 billion in 2019.
机械制造业的贸易逆差：机械制造业也预计将首次出现对华贸易逆差，逆差金额约为10亿欧元以上，此前该行业在2019年还保持着约100亿欧元的贸易顺差。
Machinery manufacturing is also expected to record its first trade deficit with China, at slightly more than €1 billion, reversing a surplus of nearly €10 billion in 2019.
德国经济研究所指出，能源密集型行业（包括化工、造纸、玻璃和金属行业）仅对贸易逆差的扩大贡献了约40亿欧元；同时，较高的能源成本仅能解释贸易逆差恶化现象的一小部分原因。
Energy-intensive industries, including chemicals, paper, glass and metals, account for only around €4 billion of the widening gap, IW said, arguing that higher energy costs explain only a small part of the deterioration.
该研究所将这种贸易格局的变化归因于中国的技术进步，以及所谓的“竞争扭曲”因素（如大量政府补贴和被严重低估的人民币汇率）。
The institute attributed the shift to China's technological advances and what it described as competitive distortions, including substantial subsidies and a sharply undervalued currency.
国际贸易专家尤尔根·马特思呼吁进行国内改革，并实施可迅速落实的广泛反制性关税。
IW foreign trade expert Jurgen Matthes called for domestic reforms and broad countervailing tariffs that could be implemented quickly.
他敦促欧洲理事会要求欧盟委员会制定一项新的贸易工具，认为此类措施将恢复公平竞争。
He urged the European Council to ask the European Commission to develop a new trade instrument, arguing that such measures would restore fair competition.