新闻的传播速度如今如此之快，以至于即使是最近的事件也可能在后视镜中消失，若有记忆也只能模糊地回想起来。但请尝试回想四年前的情形。2022年十月中旬，汽油价格逼近每加仑4美元，30年期抵押贷款利率飙升至7%。只有五分之一的美国人认为国家正朝着正确的方向前进，而总统乔·拜登的支持率则十分低迷。
The news rushes ahead so swiftly now that even recent events can vanish in the rear-view mirror, to be recalled dimly, if at all. But cast your mind back, if you can, to four years ago. In mid-October 2022 petrol prices were nearing $4 a gallon, and 30-year mortgage rates were spiking to 7%. Only one in five Americans thought the country was heading in the right direction, and the approval ratings of the president, Joe Biden, were dismal.
分析人士指出，民主党在加利福尼亚州和纽约州等可靠的民主党州份中，正努力保住拜登以两位数优势赢得的选区席位。德克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）大声宣称，红色浪潮不仅将来临，更是一场“红色海啸”。《美国保守派》（American Conservative）这家右翼刊物在选举前夕预测：“明天，它巨大的波涛将登陆。”
Analysts noted that Democrats were struggling to defend seats in districts Mr Biden had won by double digits in such reliably Democratic states as California and New York. Not just a red wave but a “red tsunami” was coming, crowed Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. “Tomorrow, its immense swell will make landfall,” the American Conservative, a right-wing publication, predicted on election eve.
事实证明，这股巨浪其实是提前的炒作。共和党在众议院赢得多数，但让民主党欣喜的是，他们打破了预期，突破了中期选举的历史规律——在众议院仅净失九个席位，并在参议院净增一个席位，继续保持多数。这个结果应当提醒正在为下月自己可能的海啸而兴奋的民主党。但真正的教训是给共和党的：在2022年看似对民主党有利的消息，最终却成为他们的灾难。
The immense swell, it turned out, was in the advance hype. The Republicans won a majority in the House, but it was the Democrats who emerged elated. They had confounded expectations and overcome the historical pattern of midterm elections by losing a net of only nine seats in the House and gaining one in the Senate, where they held the majority. That outcome should be a caution to Democrats now, as they grow giddy at the hope of their own tsunami next month. But the real lesson is for Republicans: what seemed like happy news for the Democrats in 2022 turned out to be a disaster for them.
拜登在中期选举次日举行记者会，庆祝他所说的民主党“一个强劲的夜晚”时，被问及他接下来会有什么不同做法。“什么都不会变，”他回答道。他解释说，美国人只是在逐渐认识到他政府的伟大成就。“他们越了解我们在做什么，支持就越多，”他说。中期选举之后，那些私下怀疑拜登是否应该竞选连任的助手们打消了疑虑，其他党内领袖也公开表态支持他。在那场记者会上，拜登宣称中期选举的结果意味着MAGA共和党人“无法再次接管政府”。两年后，他们恰恰做到了这一点。
When Mr Biden held a press conference the day after the midterms to celebrate what he called “a strong night” for Democrats, he was asked what he would now do differently. “Nothing,” he replied. Americans, he explained, were just learning to appreciate the great achievements of his administration. “The more they know about what we’re doing, the more support there is,” he said. After the midterms, aides who had privately wondered whether Mr Biden should run for a second term cast their doubts aside, and other party leaders publicly fell into line behind him. At that press conference, Mr Biden declared that the outcome of the midterms meant the MAGA Republicans were “not taking over the government again”. Two years later they did just that.
2026年民主党的优势是否比2022年共和党的优势更大？很可能是。2022年，共和党候选人不得不应对选民对最高法院当年6月作出的多布斯裁决的愤怒，该裁决取消了宪法规定的堕胎权。这不仅激发了可靠的民主党选民，也激发了一个已经疏远该党的群体——没有大学学位的白人女性。与此同时，尽管民主党当时作为执政党在2022年财力上具有竞争力，但共和党在本轮选举周期中获得了非同寻常的优势。
Do the Democrats have a bigger advantage in 2026 than the Republicans did in 2022? Probably. In 2022 Republican candidates had to contend with anger at the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, handed down in June that year, which eliminated a constitutional right to abortion. That energised not only reliable Democratic voters but also a constituency that had drifted away from the party—white women without college degrees. At the same time, though Democrats, then the party in power, were competitive financially in 2022, Republicans have extracted an extraordinary advantage during this election cycle.
此外，唐纳德·特朗普在本次选举前推动更多选区进行杰利蝾螈式改划，可能为共和党增加了约八个席位。
Further, Donald Trump’s push to gerrymander more districts ahead of this election may have added about eight seats to the Republicans’ total.
2026年有利于民主党的最大不同在于热情。根据皮尤研究中心的民调，2022年，自称“极其有动力”去投票的选民在两党之间平分秋色。而在2026年，根据皮尤的数据，这类热情高涨的选民中有59%支持民主党，仅35%支持共和党。
The biggest difference in 2026 that favours the Democrats is passion. In 2022 voters who described themselves as “extremely motivated” to go to the polls were evenly divided between the parties, according to polling by the Pew Research Centre. In 2026, according to Pew, 59% of such fired-up voters favour the Democrats, while only 35% favour Republicans.
这种动力差距从何而来？答案人尽皆知，但共和党人却害怕承认。选民们并未受到民主党连贯的立法议程的鼓舞。与1994年不同——当时共和党人围绕纽特·金里奇的《美国契约》团结起来，在众议院取得了压倒性胜利；也与2006年不同——当时民主党人以他们称之为“2006六项计划”的六点纲领进行竞选。而在本届选举周期中，没有人能够将反对党的目标浓缩到一张便签纸上。
Whence this motivation gap? Everyone knows the answer, but Republicans are scared to admit it. Voters are not inspired by a coherent Democratic legislative agenda. In contrast to 1994, when Republicans united around Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” to win a thumping victory in the House, and to 2006, when Democrats campaigned on a six-point plan they called “Six for ’06”, no one in this cycle could hope to distil the aims of the opposition party on a notecard.
甚至可以说，就连民主党人自己——更不用说广大公众——也对这个政党并不感到兴奋。根据奎尼皮亚克大学上个月的一项民意调查，只有48%的民主党选民认可该党目前在国会的工作表现；在所有选民中，这一比例仅为21%。
Nor can it be said that even Democrats—let alone the wider public—are thrilled with the party. Only 48% of Democratic voters approve of the job their party is doing now in Congress, according to a poll last month by Quinnipiac University. Among alled voters, that proportion is 21%.
民主党候选人所具备的优势，简单来说，就是反对特朗普总统的立场。每一次中期选举都是一次对现任总统的公投，但今年这一点似乎比以往任何时候都更加明显。高达44%的选民认为，他们投票给国会代表，实际上是在投票反对特朗普；而希望表达支持他的选民仅占19%。《经济学人》杂志设计的选举预测模型显示，民主党有惊人的五分之三的机会赢得参议院，以及二十分之十九的机会赢得众议院。
What Democratic candidates have going for them is, simply, rejection of the Trump presidency. Every midterm election is a referendum on the sitting president, but that appears to be truer this year than ever. Fully 44% ofed voters view their vote for congressional representatives as a vote to oppose him; only 19% want to signal support for him. The election-forecast model devised by The Economist gives the Democrats an astonishing three-in-five chance of winning the Senate, and a 19-in-20 chance of winning the House.
然而，选区划分不公和政治极化使得一个政党要实现共和党在2010年那样的巨大胜利变得困难得多——当时他们净增了64个席位。作为选举预测中较为冷静的机构，《库克政治报告》估计，民主党将在众议院赢得9到19个席位——与共和党在2022年净增的席位数量相同。
But gerrymandering and polarisation make it far harder for a party to achieve the kind of whopping gains Republicans made as recently as 2010, when they netted 64 seats. The Cook Political Report, a sober prognosticator of elections, estimates the Democrats will gain between nine House seats—the same number as the Republicans netted in 2022—and 19 seats.
- 人名和地名一律使用中文字符进行转写；品牌名称和产品名称可保持原样（即使用拉丁字母）。
When Republicans lose, Mr Trump looks for someone else to blame.
翻译内容：每当共和党人落败时，特朗普总会找别人来承担责任。他在谈到2022年自己支持的候选人时说：“如果他们获胜了，所有功劳都应该归我；但如果他们失败了，那我根本不应该受到指责。”到了2026年，无论共和党是惨败还是通过出人意料的表现勉强获得胜利（就像拜登四年前所做的那样），特朗普都将成为众矢之的。
“If they win, I should get all the credit,” he said of his endorsed candidates in 2022. “And if they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”In 2026 he should get the blame whether Republicans take a shellacking or, by beating the expectations game, eke out the phoney validation Mr Biden claimed four years ago.
特朗普在德克萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等州推举候选人时，更看重候选人对他的个人忠诚度而非他们的能力或吸引力，这无疑让他的政党陷入了困境。更重要的是，他在执政期间做出了许多糟糕的决定，导致他在民众中的支持率持续低迷。然而，与拜登相比，这位总统更有可能继续以现有的方式执政——无论中期选举的结果如何。
Mr Trump put his party in a hole by promoting candidates in states such as Texas and South Carolina based on loyalty to him rather than skill and appeal. More important, he has made lousy choices in office that have made him historically unpopular. Yet even more than Mr Biden, this president can be counted on to keep governing as he has, regardless of the midterm result.
他已无法再次参选。那些希望在未来（2029年）接替他担任总统的共和党人应该从民主党的错误中吸取教训，礼貌而果断地与特朗普保持距离。
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He cannot run again. But those Republicans who hope to succeed him as president in 2029 should learn from the Democrats’ mistakes and begin, politely but decisively, to distance themselves from him. ■ rs to The Economist can sign up to our Opinion newsletter, which brings together the best of our leaders, columns, guest essays and reader correspondence.