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关于民粹主义的都市迷思Urban myths about populism

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(尼尚特·乔克西)(Nishant Choksi)

欢迎通过电子邮件将信件发送至 letters@economism,了解我们处理信件的具体方式。Alexander Heffner 认为,世界各地的市长是民主制度的捍卫者,“威权主义者”在市政厅中毫无立足之地(《By Invitation》,10月3日)。但他对民粹主义的理解仅限于右翼类型。例如,他观察到“50个最大城市中没有一个是 MAGA 派系的市长所治理”,这一说法其实并不那么令人意外,因为这50个城市中只有7个由任何类型的共和党人管理。

Letters are welcome via email to letters@economismFind out more about how we process your letter Alexander Heffner finds that the world’s mayors are the defenders of democracy and “authoritarians” have no place in city hall (By Invitation, October 3rd). But he limits his conception of populism to the right-wing sort. His observation that “none of the 50 largest cities is run by a MAGA-aligned mayor” is less startling, for example, given that only seven are run by Republicans of any stripe.

在这50位市长中,有41位是民主党人,其中至少5位可归为民粹左翼阵营,包括纽约市的 Zohran Mamdani 和芝加哥市的 Brandon Johnson。他举出的德国例子也印证了这一点。柏林虽然一直抵制 AfD 式的民粹主义,但在9月份的选举中却屈服于民粹左翼,使“左翼党”(Die Linke)成为最大政党。

Of these 50 mayors, 41 are Democrats and at least five of those can be placed in the populist-left camp, including New York’s Zohran Mamdani and Chicago’s Brandon Johnson. His German example reinforces this point. Berlin has been immune to the AfD’s brand of populism, but it succumbed to the populist-left variety in September’s election by making Die Linke the biggest party.

Heffner 先生对城市为何能够“坚守”民主底线给出的第一个解释是,城市拥有“更年轻、更多元化、受教育程度更高的选民”。这不过是“以民主党选民为主”的另一种更冗长的说法。他的第二个理由则是,市长们的政绩往往体现在修葺下水道等更具体的成果上,这一观点似乎与他希望将市政管理的范畴扩展到住房、犯罪和气候等充满党派分歧的领域直接相悖。

Mr Heffner’s first explanation for why cities “hold” the line of democracy is that they have “younger, more diverse, more educated voters”. That is simply a more verbose way of saying “heavily Democratic”. His second reason, that mayors are judged on more tangible accomplishments like fixing sewers, seems directly at odds with his wish to expand the mayoral domain into housing, crime and climate, all areas laced with partisan tripwires.

最后,Heffner 先生批评那些“削弱”市长权力的州政府,并以得克萨斯州限制城市对房产进行监管为例。我不禁要问:如果休斯敦、奥斯汀、达拉斯和沃斯堡的市长能够自由地效仿旧金山或纽约,这些城市的房产市场今天是否会更高效?更重要的是,得克萨斯州的这些规定真的比许多市长所推崇的“邻避主义”(NIMBYism)更少民粹色彩吗?

Finally, Mr Heffner lambasts statehouses that “kneecap” their mayors, citing as one key example Texas’s limits on cities regulating property. I wonder. Would Houston, Austin, Dallas and Fort Worth have more functional property markets today had their mayors been free to copy San Francisco or New York? And more to the point, are Texas’s rules really less populist than the NIMBYism so many mayors cherish?

彼得·多纳休休斯敦:《休斯顿电讯报》正确地指出,民主制度的优势在于通过选举而非暴力来疏导民众的愤怒情绪(10月3日)。只有当选民相信选举具有合法性、反对派有权执政且败选者能接受结果时,选票才能真正胜过子弹。一旦这些前提条件遭到破坏,民主制度便可能从宣泄愤怒的渠道沦为冲突的战场。意大利“铅色年代”带给我们的真正教训是:民主社会需要领袖与民众共同维护游戏规则,即便这些规则对政治对手有利。

Peter DonahueHouston The Telegram rightly notes that democracy’s strength lies in channelling political anger through elections rather than violence (October 3rd). Ballot boxes beat bullets only when voters believe elections are legitimate, opponents are entitled to govern, and losers accept the outcome. Once those assumptions weaken, democracy risks becoming not an outlet for anger, but its battleground. The true lesson of Italy’s “Years of Lead” is that democratic societies depend on leaders and citizens to defend the rules of the game, even when those rules favour their political rivals.

民众愤怒本身并不会导致民主制度消亡;唯有当他们不再认同“败选亦属合理”这一原则时,民主才会走向灭亡。费德里科·福尔尼伦敦:“教授们也受不了的高温”(9月26日)提出了一个耐人寻味的问题:为何意大利的芬太尼致死案例如此罕见?不过,文中所谓意大利黑手党达成共识以杜绝该毒品流通的说法,缺乏足够证据支撑。您引用的意大利宪兵指挥官称,贩毒者似乎有意避开芬太尼,但这既不能证明黑帮头目间存在协议,也无法解释为何贩毒者会刻意回避这种毒品。

Democracy does not die when people become angry; it dies when they stop believing that losing is legitimate. Federico ForniLondon“Too hot for the dons” (September 26th) raises an intriguing question: why are fentanyl deaths so rare in Italy? The suggestion that Italian mafias have agreed to keep the drug out, however, goes beyond the evidence presented. The Carabinieri commander you cited said that traffickers appear to be steering clear of fentanyl. That does not establish an agreement among godfathers, or explain why traffickers are avoiding the drug.

2024年意大利仅出现两例与芬太尼相关的死亡案例,2025年也仅有五例。然而低发率现象并非意大利独有:法国法兰西岛大区的一项研究显示,2017至2021年间有12例死亡案例检测出芬太尼或其类似物;德国2024年报告的芬太尼致死案例达95例;西班牙则在2023年发现60名吸毒死亡者体内含有芬太尼。这些数据虽不可直接对比,且检测出芬太尼也未必意味着其为致死原因,但无论如何都远未达到美国那种泛滥程度。倘若意大利黑手党的默契协议是主因,为何其他欧洲国家的芬太尼情况同样相对可控呢?

Italy recorded two deaths associated with fentanyl in 2024 and five in 2025. But low numbers are not unique to Italy. A study in the Île-de-France region detected fentanyl or its analogues in 12 deaths examined between 2017 and 2021. Germany reported 95 fentanyl-associated deaths in 2024. Spain detected fentanyl in 60 people who died after using drugs in 2023. These figures are not directly comparable and detecting fentanyl does not necessarily mean that it caused a death. None, however, suggests an epidemic on the American scale. If an Italian mafia agreement is the main explanation, why has fentanyl also remained relatively scarce in other European countries?

美国的历史提供了另一种解释。自20世纪90年代起,医生开始大规模开具阿片类止痛药,导致大量人群开始使用这类药物。其中一些人进而转向吸食海洛因。大约从2013年开始,非法制造的芬太尼在黑市上迅速蔓延,逐渐取代或与海洛因混合使用。而欧洲并未出现类似的阿片类药物处方量激增现象:海洛因在欧洲大部分地区依然可获取,芬太尼也并未大规模取代海洛因的地位。

The history of the United States offers another explanation. From the 1990s, doctors prescribed opioid painkillers on a vast scale, helping create a large population using opioids. Some people turned to heroin. From around 2013, illegally manufactured fentanyl spread through the illicit market, replacing or being mixed with heroin. Europe did not experience the same surge in opioid prescribing. Heroin remained available in much of Europe, and fentanyl did not displace it on a large scale across the continent.

迄今为止,欧洲并未出现类似美国的阿片类药物滥用危机,这一现象只是欧洲的普遍状况,并不能证明意大利黑手党是在保护普通消费者。千万别轻信那些黑帮头目的“保护承诺”。费德里科·瓦雷塞,巴黎目前英国工党内部出现了一种论调,声称在撒切尔夫人执政之前曾有过一个“黄金时代”(《贝格霍特》,10月3日)。

So far the absence of an American-style epidemic is a European pattern, not evidence that Italian mafias are protecting consumers. Never put your trust in the Godfather. Federico VareseParis A narrative is developing in the British Labour Party that there was a golden age before Margaret Thatcher (Bagehot, October 3rd).

这种说法完全无视了1970年代其实是个极其糟糕的十年这一事实:当时通货膨胀率一度超过25%,加上经济增长乏力,导致了严重的滞胀现象。英国甚至被称作“欧洲的病夫”。我当时背负着18%利率的房贷,每年都爆发各种罢工活动:邮递员罢工促使伦敦的大型企业创立了“文件快递服务”,通过私人信使网络来递送邮件。

This ignores the fact that the 1970s were an appalling decade. Inflation reached over 25%. Combined with low growth it created stagflation. Britain was called the sick man of Europe. I had a mortgage at 18%. Each year saw industrial action. The strike by post-office workers caused big London firms to create the Document Exchange, a service to deliver mail via a system of private messengers.

码头工人、电工、电力行业从业者……罢工接连不断。矿工罢工更是导致全国实行每周三天工作制。作为伦敦金融城一家小公司的合伙人,我曾遭遇工会切断电力供应的状况,只能在烛光下工作,连打字机和通讯设备都无法使用。而那些工会头目却能与时任首相在唐宁街共进午餐。此后选举轮番举行:哈罗德·威尔逊、爱德华·希思、詹姆斯·卡拉汉相继执政。

Dockers, electricians, power workers: it was one big strike after another. The country was put on a three-day week with the miners’ strike. As a partner in a small firm in the City of London, I found myself working by candlelight with no typing or communications systems when the unions shut off the power. The union bosses lunched in Downing Street with the prime minister of the day. Elections came and went: Harold Wilson, Edward Heath, James Callaghan.

工资管制、物价与收入管控措施也屡见不鲜;从“不满之冬”到垃圾清运工甚至掘墓工的罢工,各种乱象层出不穷。

So did wage controls, price and income boards, the Winter of Discontent, strikes by binmen and even grave-diggers, you name it.

1979年撒切尔夫人的当选正是上述种种状况的结果。她的政策至今仍备受争议,但可以确定的是:在她执政之前根本不存在什么“黄金时代”。

The election of Thatcher in 1979 was the result of all this. Her policies remain deeply controversial. But what is clear is that there was no golden age before her.

克里斯托弗·博丁顿,伦敦 作为一名设计“睡眠走向未来”等项目的睡眠神经科学家,我对巴特比关于如何像专业人士一样睡觉的备忘录(9月19日)一笑置之。但最有说服力的发现并不是一个笑话。当高级管理人员在凌晨3点发送信息时,初级同事早早醒来回复,整个公司的睡眠都变差了。我在无数组织中见过这种级联效应。

Christopher BoddingtonLondon As a sleep neuroscientist who designs programmes like “Sleep Into The Future”, I laughed at Bartleby’s memo on how to sleep like a pro (September 19th). But the most telling finding wasn’t a joke. When senior managers sent messages at 3am, junior colleagues woke early to answer them, and the whole firm slept worse. I have seen that cascade in countless organisations.

这就是为什么此类项目仍然迫切需要,也是为什么这么多项目令人失望。它们发放眼罩和追踪器,把睡眠当作每个员工的私人问题。更大的因素是领导行为。在我为一家咨询公司开展的一个睡眠项目中,管理层几乎没有以身作则展现良好睡眠习惯,员工到周五时累积了七小时的睡眠债。而那些领导完全做到的员工几乎没有睡眠债。

That is why such programmes are still badly needed, and also why so many disappoint. They hand out eye masks and trackers, and treat sleep as each employee’s private problem. The bigger factor is leadership behaviour. In a sleep programme I ran at a consulting firm where management barely modelled good sleeping habits, staff built up seven hours of sleep debt by Friday. Employees whose leaders fully did had almost none.

一家公司对此深思熟虑是对的。它应该从那些发送凌晨3点邮件的人开始。

A firm is right to sleep on it. It should start with the people sending the 3am emails.

埃尔斯·范德赫尔姆,睡眠神经科学家,瑞士卢塞恩 《经济学人》将新加坡描述为一个“一尘不染的城市国家”,并承认最近一篇学术论文发现一些公务员存在不寻常的购房模式,其结论“实际上并没有那么具有破坏性”(“公民不服从”,10月3日)。尽管如此,政府认真对待所谓的“统计模式”,并正在调查是否存在任何实际不当行为。

ELS VAN DER HELMSleep neuroscientistLucerne, Switzerland The Economist described Singapore as a “squeaky-clean city-state” and allows that the findings of a recent academic paper identifying unusual patterns of property purchases by some civil servants are “not actually that damning” (“Civil disobedience”, October 3rd). Nevertheless, the government takes the purported “statistical patterns” seriously and is investigating whether there was any actual misconduct.

两位新加坡学者主动要求将自己的名字从论文的致谢中删除。《经济学人》声称这暗示新加坡学术文化中存在“某种腐败”。但最新的QS世界大学排名将新加坡国立大学列为全球第十,南洋理工大学列为第十二。这很难与《经济学人》笼统的定性相符。

Two Singaporean academics asked, of their own accord, for their names to be removed from the paper’s acknowledgements. The Economist claims this implies “a form of rot” in Singapore’s academic culture. But the latest QS World University Rankings place the National University of Singapore tenth and the Nanyang Technological University 12th globally.

  1. 人名和地名一律使用中文字符进行转写;品牌名称和产品名称可保持原样(即使用拉丁字母)。

That hardly squares with The Economist’s sweeping characterisation.

翻译内容:

NG TECK HEANSingapore high commissionerLondon You propose that American and Chinese labs disclose their safety incidents, and that a lab whose agent escapes its sandbox should be made financially liable (“Can the AI arms race be stopped?”, September 19th). Medicine tried to have both, and learned it cannot.

NG TECK HEAN(新加坡高级专员)你建议美国和中国的实验室公开其安全事故记录,并规定:如果某个实验室的智能系统“逃出”了其“安全隔离环境”,该实验室应承担相应的经济责任(《人工智能军备竞赛能被阻止吗?》,9月19日)。医学领域曾试图同时实施这两项措施,但最终发现这根本行不通。我在放射科实验室工作了八年,负责利用人工智能软件分析 MRI 扫描结果。

I have spent eight years in a radiology lab checking kidneys that AI software draws on MRI scans. A model that traces a healthy kidney perfectly can quietly lose the edge of one swollen with cysts, and the error never flags itself.

某些模型能够完美地识别健康的肾脏,但却会忽略那些被囊肿影响的肾脏——而这些错误根本不会被系统自动检测出来。我们之所以能发现这些问题,是因为有工作人员会主动指出那些异常情况;否则,这些问题可能永远都不会被发现。

We caught such failures because a student could point at an odd-looking volume without anyone first asking whose fault it was. Frontier labs are no different. An engineer who notices an agent probing its sandbox will report it only if doing so does not put a price on the employer.

HREEDI DEV(纽约)丹·西蒙斯在1989年出版的科幻小说《Hyperion》描绘了人类遍布整个银河系的情景。人类之所以离开地球,是因为一起被称为“大错误”(The Big Mistake)的灾难性事件……其实,罪魁祸首就是人工智能。

Keep liability for harm that reaches the outside world, but protect the report of the near-miss that did not. Otherwise the incidents will continue. We will simply stop hearing about them. HREEDI DEVNew York Dan Simmons’s excellent 1989 science-fiction book, “Hyperion”, was based on a human diaspora throughout the galaxy. Humans had left Earth because of an incident called The Big Mistake.

Dennis Merritt(马萨诸塞州谢尔本福尔斯)

Spoiler alert. It was AI. Dennis MerrittShelburne Falls, Massachusetts