牛津经济研究院表示，印度或将在11月适度上调燃料价格，这是明年年初关键邦选举前为数不多的调价窗口期。
India may raise fuel prices moderately in November, a brief window to do so before crucial state elections early next year, Oxford Economics said.
牛津经济研究院首席经济学家亚历山德拉·赫曼·普拉萨德在周四的一份报告中写道：“我们认为11月是加油站价格上调的最后一个现实窗口期，因为2027年初的邦选举竞选活动届时将愈演愈烈。”明年举行选举的七个邦中有五个邦，包括关键的北方邦和旁遮普邦，投票时间将在3月至5月之间。
“We regard November as the last realistic window” for price increases at the pump, “before campaigning for early-2027 state elections intensifies,” Alexandra Hermann Prasad, lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note Thursday. Five of the seven states holding elections next year, including key Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, will vote between March and May.
此次燃料价格上调幅度可能约为5月份累计7.5%涨幅的一半，而5月份是唯一一次因中东战争影响导致加油站价格上涨的时期。赫曼·普拉萨德表示，这可能会使10月至12月季度的零售通胀率升至6.2%，2027年前三个月则达到6.5%。这两个数据都将高于印度储备银行设定的2%至6%的通胀目标区间。
The fuel price increase could be around half the magnitude of the cumulative 7.5% increases in May, the only period when pump prices rose in response to the war in the Middle East. This could lift retail inflation to 6.2% in the October-December quarter and 6.5% in the first three months of 2027, Hermann Prasad said. The readings would be above the Reserve Bank of India’s mandate of keeping it within the 2%-6% range.
牛津经济研究院的预测高于印度储备银行的预期，且方向也存在差异。印度储备银行在本月早些时候的货币政策审查中预测，10月至12月季度的通胀率为6%，并在1月至3月期间降至5.7%。而牛津经济研究院的模型则显示，明年的价格压力将加剧。
Oxford’s projections are higher and directionally different from what the central bank expects. The RBI, in its monetary policy review earlier this month, projected inflation at 6% in the October-December quarter, and for it to moderate to 5.7% in the January-March period. Oxford’s model suggest price pressures intensifying next year.
对于截至3月的整个财年，赫曼·普拉萨德预测通胀率为5.4%，高于印度储备银行对该年度的5.2%预测。
For the full fiscal year through March, Hermann Prasad forecast inflation at 5.4%, above the Reserve Bank of India’s 5.2% projection for the year.
不过，这位牛津经济学家表示，如果当局未在11月宣布上调燃料价格，她对未来几个季度的通胀预测将下调10至30个基点。
The Oxford economist, however, said if authorities do not announce a fuel price increase in November, her inflation projections should come down by 10-30 basis points in the coming quarters.
尽管如此，“通胀仍将处于较高水平”，印度储备银行可能需要在12月和2月的政策会议上各加息25个基点，以应对此前10月份0.25个百分点的加息。9月份的通胀率升至5.54%，为2024年底以来的最高水平，高于8月份的4.83%。
Nevertheless, “inflation would remain elevated,” and may require the central bank to raise rates in the December and February policy meetings by 25 basis points each, following October’s quarter-point increase. Inflation rose 5.54% in September, the highest since late-2024 and up from 4.83% in August.
印度储备银行近期采取的货币市场措施应能抑制卢比的波动，“但油价高企以及持续的外部融资压力意味着仅靠干预不太可能带来持久的货币稳定，”她表示。
The RBI’s recent currency-market measures should contain rupee volatility, “but elevated oil prices and persistent external financing pressures mean intervention alone is unlikely to deliver lasting currency stability,” she said.
这位牛津大学的经济学家也不认为，针对政府选举舞弊指控而扩大的抗议活动会对经济增长产生实质性影响，因为“扰乱主要集中在德里，且范围仍然过于有限。”
The Oxford economist also doesn’t expect broadening protests against the government over allegations of electoral malpractice to materially affect growth, as “disruption has largely centered on Delhi and remains too limited.”