（这是《市场最佳股票》，由瑞思奥尔茨财富管理公司的乔什·布朗和肖恩·鲁索为您呈现。）乔什 — — 法拉利世界主题公园于2010年11月在阿布扎比开放。公园的中心景点是Formula Rossa，吉尼斯世界纪录今年春天将其认证为地球上最快的过山车发射式游乐项目。它采用类似于用于将战斗机弹射出航空母舰甲板的液压发射装置。
(This is The Best Stocks in the Market , brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — The Ferrari World theme park opened its doors in Abu Dhabi in November 2010. The centerpiece of the park is Formula Rossa, which Guinness verified this spring as the fastest roller coaster launch ride on planet Earth. It employs a hydraulic launcher similar to the one used to catapult fighter jets off the top of an aircraft carrier.
乘客在启动时不到5秒钟就会被送入每小时240公里（约149英里）的冲刺，且在起步的前2秒内就能达到每小时100公里。以这样的速度，即使是空气中的普通尘埃也会像子弹一样击中皮肤。乘客必须佩戴护目镜，并在登车前放下他们携带的所有物品，列车造型就像一辆真正的F1赛车。整个乘坐过程大约持续一分钟，但对我来说，这已经是足够长的时间了。
Your body is sent into a 240 km per hour (about 149 mph) rush in under 5 seconds when the ride takes off, and it hits 100 km per hour within the opening 2 seconds. At that speed, even ordinary dust in the air hits the skin like a bullet. Riders are made to wear eye goggles and leave anything they're carrying behind before boarding the train, which is shaped like an actual F1 car. The ride lasts about a minute, but that sounds like plenty of time to me.
今年像Palantir（PLTR）这样的AI软件股票的乘坐体验，是您在不前往亚斯岛的情况下能够接近Formula Rossa体验的最接近方式。它的贝塔系数为1.6，意味着其股价波动幅度比整个股市大60%，这种特性在两个方向上都成立。但即使贝塔系数也低估了这次乘坐的极端程度。过去五年，其年化标准差达到71%，是更广泛市场波动幅度的数倍。
Riding an AI software stock like Palantir (PLTR) this year is the closest you'll get to the Formula Rossa experience without traveling to Yas Island. It has a beta of 1.6, meaning the shares move 60% more than the stock market, which works in both directions. But even beta understates how extreme the ride has been. Over the last five years the annualized standard deviation is 71%, several times what the broader market runs.
五年内的最大回撤达到85%，但如今该股票仅距离历史最高点几个百分点。我指出这一点是为了提醒您：如果过山车不是您的兴趣所在，您可能想要跳过这次乘坐。并非所有乘客在下车后踉踉跄跄地走向墙上查看自己的照片时，都同意这种刺激值得所带来的寒意。无论怎样，我们都将讲述这个故事并展示这些图表。Palantir自上周起再次进入我们的关注列表，而我们尚未在此专栏中对其进行过报道。
The five-year max drawdown is 85%, and yet the stock is now just a few percentage points away from a record high. I point this out to warn you that if roller coasters aren't your thing, you may want to sit this one out. Not everybody getting off the ride, stumbling to see their picture on the wall, agrees that the thrills were worth the chills. We're going to tell you the story and show you the charts regardless. Palantir has just hit our list again as of last week and we haven't covered it yet in this column.
肖恩将在下面介绍基本面。我将在后续内容中回顾技术面以及我们可能出错的地方。最佳股票聚焦：Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) Sean — Palantir 是我们在一月份推出内部动量策略 Porterhouse 时的原始持仓之一。该模型在四月再平衡时卖出了该股，此后未再买回。然而，就在上周，它出现在我们的最佳股票名单上，因此我们认为可以将其作为有趣的焦点进行介绍。
Sean has the fundamentals below. I'll be back with the technicals and where we'd be wrong. Best Stock Spotlight: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR) Sean — Palantir was one of the original holdings when we launched Porterhouse, our in-house momentum strategy, in January. The model sold it at our April rebalance and it has not made its way back. However, just last week it popped up on our Best Stocks list, so we thought it would be a fun spotlight.
Palantir 去年十一月收盘价曾创下纪录高点 207.18 美元，随后随着软件板块整体下跌，在六月跌至接近 107 美元的低点，跌幅达 48%。此后股价几乎翻倍，于十月九日收盘价创下新纪录 209.05 美元。截至周三收盘，其年内涨幅为 13%，过去三个月涨幅为 55%。Palantir 开发的软件使政府和大型企业能够基于自身数据和 AI 模型运营业务。
PLTR closed at a record $207.18 last November, then fell 48% to a June low near $107 as all of software sold off. It then nearly doubled to a new record close of $209.05 on Oct. 9. As of Wednesday's close, it's up 13% YTD and up 55% over the last three months. Palantir builds software that lets governments and large companies run their operations on their own data and AI models.
公司起初服务于美国国防和情报机构，如今正在快速拓展其商业业务。私营企业已成为 Palantir 增长最快的业务板块。接下来我们进行深入分析。即使在“SaaSpocalypse”期间，公司业务也未放缓。收入增长已连续九个季度加速，从 2024 年第二季度的 27% 提升至 2026 年第二季度的 93%，当时收入为 19.4 亿美元。
It started with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies and today the company is quickly expanding its commercial business. Private corporations have become the fastest-growing business for PLTR. Let's dive in. The business never slowed down during the "SaaSpocalypse." Revenue growth has accelerated for nine straight quarters, from 27% in Q2 2024 to 93% in Q2 2026, on $1.94B of revenue.
美国商业业务增长了 149%，美国政府业务增长了 90%。净美元留存率达到 157%，这意味着现有客户的支出较一年前增加了 57%。净利润首次在单个季度超过 10 亿美元。这种增长与利润率的结合体现在常被讨论的“40 法则”中——该指标将收入增长与利润率相加。高于 40 被视为健康的软件公司标准。Palantir 在 2026 年第二季度的得分为 155（基于其 62% 的调整后营业利润率），且这是连续第十二个季度该得分呈提升趋势。
U.S. commercial grew 149% and U.S. government grew 90%. Net dollar retention hit 157%, which means existing customers are spending 57% more than a year ago. Net income topped $1B in a quarter for the first time. That combination of growth and margin shows up in the oft-talked-about "Rule of 40," which adds revenue growth to profit margin. Anything above 40 is considered a healthy software company. Palantir's score was 155 in Q2, using its 62% adjusted operating margin, and it was the 12th straight quarter that score improved.
微软的得分约为 66，而规模相当的 CrowdStrike 得分约为 45。在 Palantir 前列的仅有少数大型公司：美光（427）、SK 海力士（333）、三星（182）。管理层在今年每次财报发布时都上调了 2026 年的收入指引。该指引从二月的 71.9 亿美元（增长 61%）提升至八月的 81.5 亿美元（增长 82%）。
Microsoft scores about 66, and CrowdStrike, at a similar revenue size, scores about 45. The only large companies ahead of PLTR are Micron (427), SK Hynix (333), Samsung (182). Management has raised 2026 revenue guidance at every print this year. It went from $7.19B (61% growth) in February to $8.15B (82% growth) in August.
Q3指引暗示增长83%，公司将于11月2日发布报告。订单积压也印证了这一点——剩余合同总价值为131亿美元，增长83%。9月，Palantir扩大了与英伟达的合作伙伴关系，将英伟达的开放模型与Palantir平台配对，使客户能够在其自身数据上运行AI并保留他们训练的模型。英伟达正在为其自身供应链使用这一设置。这一切都不便宜。
Q3 guidance implies 83% growth, and the company reports on November 2. The backlog backs that up - total remaining deal value is $13.1 billion, up 83%. In September, Palantir expanded its partnership with Nvidia to pair Nvidia's open models with Palantir's platform, which lets customers run AI on their own data and keep the models they train. Nvidia is using that setup for its own supply chains. None of this is cheap.
投资者正在为增长买单。在4830亿美元市值下，Palantir的股价为今年收入指引的59倍，以及2027年共识盈利的约78倍。股价已回到去年11月的水平，但季度收入比当时高出64%。这使得如今的股票比其上次创下历史新高时更具性价比。风险管理Josh — Palantir在8月4日突破基础，开盘价接近145美元，此前一天收盘价在120美元中段。
Investors are paying up for growth. At a $483B market cap, Palantir trades at 59x this year's revenue guidance and about 78x consensus 2027 earnings. The stock is back where it was last November, but quarterly revenue is 64% higher than it was then. This makes it a cheaper stock today than it was the last time it hit an all-time high. Risk management Josh — Palantir gapped out of a base on Aug. 4, opening near $145 after closing in the mid-120s the session before.
该股在2026年大部分时间里一直低于其200日均线，并在6月下旬触及低位100美元区间。这是年内成交量最大时出现的突破缺口，而Sean上文所述的Q2报告是原因。机构买家付出了溢价，且不愿等待。该缺口从未被填补，9月的回调在166美元处两次遇到买盘，但远未达到该水平。股价在10月8日突破了9月下旬的195美元阻力位，随后第二天突破去年11月的纪录高点，并在周一冲高至接近213美元。
The stock had spent most of 2026 under its 200-day and bottomed in the low $100s in late June. This is a breakaway gap on the heaviest volume of the year, and the Q2 report Sean described above is the reason. Institutions paid up and weren't willing to wait. The gap has never been filled, and the September pullback found buyers at $166 twice, nowhere near it. The stock cleared the $195 ceiling from late September on Oct. 8, then took out last November's record the next day and ran to a high near $213 on Monday.
周三下跌4%后，股价回落至201美元，今日早盘开盘疲软，约在195美元。与此同时，50日均线上行至181美元，200日均线为153美元。周一的高点是需要突破的天花板。RSI在8月缺口后数周保持高位，股价亦保持坚挺。9月则在回调至166美元时将其压低至40多点低位，实现完全重置，为这一轮第二段上涨清除了道路。10月9日推动股价创纪录上涨，使RSI重返70点低位。周三下跌后RSI降至63，单个交易日内动能几乎下降了十个点。
Wednesday's 4% drop left it at $201, and it's opening soft this morning at around $195. Meanwhile, we have the 50-day rising at $181 and the 200-day at $153. Monday's high is the ceiling to clear. RSI stayed elevated for weeks after the August gap and the stock held. September then flushed it into the low 40s on the pullback to $166, a full reset that cleared the way for this second leg. The Oct. 9 push to the record took RSI back into the low 70s.
虽然股价较历史高点有所回落，但这一跌幅相对于9月份的强劲涨势而言微不足道。目前股价水平仍为后续进一步上涨留出了空间，且无需从过高价位起步。交易者不宜将195美元作为止损位——当前股价正好处于该价位附近，因此它并非有效的止损点，而是一场多空博弈的战场。185美元才是较为合适的止损位，这一价位较当前股价低约5%。
With RSI at 63 after Wednesday's drop, momentum has cooled by nearly ten points in a single session. One red day from a record high is a small dent next to that September flush, and the reading leaves room for another run at Monday's high without starting from a stretched level. Traders can't use $195 here.
该价位正是9月末至10月初股价盘整区间的下限：当时买方力量强劲，使得股价在两周时间内始终维持在185美元至187美元之间，随后才实现突破。若股价收盘跌破185美元，则意味着此次突破失败，股价将重新回到此盘整区间。一旦判断失误，投资者也能迅速察觉，且损失有限。与其纠结于盘中波动，不如以收盘价作为决策依据。
The stock is opening right on top of it, so it's not a stop, it's the battle. Traders can use $185 as their stop, a 5% drop from here. That's the floor of the late September and early October consolidation, where buyers held the stock between $185 and $187 for two weeks before it broke out.
对于长期持有者而言，166美元可作为重要支撑位——这一价位恰好对应了9月份出现的两次低点。145美元附近的缺口以及153美元处的200日均线均位于该价位之下，因此166美元才是值得耐心坚守的底线。一旦股价出现周线级别的收盘跌破，则意味着自缺口形成以来的“低点不断抬高”趋势宣告终结。若你打算参与交易，务必做好充分准备；当然，你也可以选择放弃交易，转而去排队买吉事果。
A close below it puts the stock back inside that range and tells you the breakout didn't take. If you're wrong, you'll know fast, and it won't cost you much to find out. Let the closing print decide, not the intraday noise. Investors can anchor to $166, where both September lows came in.
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The gap near $145 and the 200-day at $153 sit well below that, which makes $166 the line for patient holders. A weekly close below it and the sequence of higher lows since the gap is broken. Put your goggles on if you're playing. You have my permission to skip and get in the churro line instead.