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彭博社

秘鲁经济连续第二个月增速超过3%Peru’s Economy Expanded Faster Than 3% for Second Month

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一列利马地铁列车在利马穿行。A Lima Metro train travels through in Lima.

,符合预期,主要得益于多数行业表现强劲。

Peru’s economy grew more than 3% for a second straight month, in line with expectations, driven by strong performance in most sectors.

秘鲁国家统计局INEI周四表示,经济活动指数(国内生产总值的代理指标)同比增长3.23%。该数据略低于7月的3.6%,也略低于彭博社调查的经济学家中位数预期3.3%。环比增长0.22%。

The economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 3.23% from a year earlier, the national statistics agency INEI said Thursday. The result was slightly slower than July’s 3.6% reading and just below the 3.3% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Output rose 0.22% from a month earlier.

该数据表明秘鲁可能正朝着央行预测的2026年3.2%增长目标前进,这一增长受私人投资强劲和金属价格高企推动。这些因素有助于缓冲今年早些时候异常天气对农业、渔业及相关行业造成的冲击。2026年前八个月,经济活动累计增长3.14%。

The reading signals Peru may be on its way to meeting the central bank forecast of 3.2% growth for 2026, driven by strong private investment and high metal prices. Those headwinds are expected to help cushion the impact on the economy from unusual weather conditions that have been undercutting agriculture, fishing and related industries earlier in the year. In the first eight months of 2026, economic activity rose 3.14%.

8月份的增长主要受建筑、零售销售和制造业拉动,分别增长10.34%、6.89%和4.18%。采矿业下降5.53%,渔业下降17.33%,对总体产出形成拖累。

August’s output was driven by strong performance in construction, retail sales and manufacturing, which expanded 10.34%, 6.89% and 4.18%, respectively. Weighing on output, mining fell 5.53%, while fishing declined 17.33%.

秘鲁是拉美地区较为稳定的经济体之一,近年来增速领先于区域同行,通胀水平也处于新兴市场较低位置。但一系列供给冲击导致年度消费者物价涨幅连续七个月超过央行目标区间上限3%,食品价格上涨进一步叠加了全球能源冲击。

Peru is one of Latin America’s more stable economies, with growth outpacing regional peers and inflation among the lowest in emerging markets in recent years. But a series of supply shocks have seen annual consumer price increases print above the 3% top of the central bank’s target range for seven straight months, with rising food costs adding to the global energy shock.

本月早些时候,政策制定者出人意料地将基准利率维持在4.25%不变,这是连续第13次会议按兵不动,未能如市场预期般加息25个基点。董事会认为通胀飙升可能是暂时的,但警告称若厄尔尼诺现象恶化,可能导致通胀居高不下更长时间。厄尔尼诺现象预计将持续到2027年上半年。

Earlier this month, policymakers surprisingly kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for a 13th straight meeting, bucking expectations for a quarter-point hike. The board is betting that the inflation spike will prove temporary, while warning that a worsening El Niño could keep inflation elevated for longer. The weather phenomenon is expected to last through the first half of 2027.