罗伊·萨里格堪称伦敦最具以色列特色的人物。他出生于一个基布兹，家族历史可追溯到以色列建国之前；每年他都会庆祝这个节日。他密切关注着以色列的新闻与政治动态，经常回国访问，并计划有朝一日彻底回归。然而，在英国生活的22年间——这里是他妻子的祖国——他从未参加过一次以色列选举。“我从未试图割裂自己与以色列的身份联系，”他说，“只是我觉得自己不在以色列生活，就不适合去投票。”不过今年，他定于10月27日回国行使这一权利。
ROI SARIG is about as Israeli as it is possible to be in London. Born on a kibbutz to a family with roots predating the country’s independence, which he celebrates each year, he follows its news and politics closely, visits regularly and plans to return some day. Yet in the 22 years he has lived in Britain, his wife’s home country, he has not once voted in an Israeli election. “It was never a case of me detaching myself from my Israeli identity,” he says. “But I believed that because I wasn’t living there it wouldn’t be right for me to cast my vote.”This year, however, he will be flying back to do exactly that on October 27th.
像他这样的人不在少数。最近几周，遍布世界各地的以色列侨民群体中，人们茶余饭后、在犹太教堂里谈论的话题都是：谁会回国投票？根据以色列选举法，只有少数特定人群及其家属，比如外交官以及负责推动犹太人移民以色列的“犹太事务局”工作人员，才有权在海外使领馆投票。除居住在约旦河西岸占领区的以色列人外，其他所有侨民若想行使民主权利，都必须亲自返回以色列。
He is far from alone. Across Israel’s wide diaspora, the talk around dinner tables and in synagogues in recent weeks has been about who is going home to vote. Under Israeli electoral law only a few limited categories of citizens and their families, such as diplomats and employees of the Jewish Agency, the main body responsible for promoting aliyah—Jewish immigration—can cast their ballots in embassies abroad. Apart from Israelis living in the occupied territories of the West Bank, everyone else must return to Israel if they wish to exercise their democratic right.
目前尚无法准确统计回国投票的人数，但这一数字预计将创下历史纪录。美国一家致力于推动以色列民主发展的非营利组织“援助联盟”预测，将有超过5万名旅美以色列侨民回国投票。
It is impossible to know how many will go but numbers appear to be unprecedented. The Aid Coalition, an American non-profit group focused on promoting democracy in Israel, expects over 50,000 expats in America to go back.
这次选举的结果可能非常胶着。我们的民意调查数据显示，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德党与加迪·艾森科特领导的新政党“雅沙尔党”的支持率几乎持平。政治策略师兼民意调查专家达莉亚·谢因德林指出：今年，每个政党每多获得4万张选票，就有可能赢得以色列议会（Knesset）中的1个席位（具体席位数量取决于投票率和该政党的得票率）。
The election may be close. Our poll tracker suggests that the Likud party of Binyamin Netanyahu is neck-and-neck with Yashar, a new party led by Gadi Eisenkot. Dahlia Scheindlin, a political strategist and pollster, reckons this year each 40,000 votes a party wins could translate into one of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. (The number varies depending on turnout and the party’s vote share.)
虽然目前还不清楚海外犹太人会如何投票，但可以合理推测他们很可能会倾向于支持反对利库德党的政党；因为她表示：“目前，帮助海外犹太人回归以色列的主要努力主要来自自由派人士。”
No one knows how expats will vote, but it is reasonable to assume they will lean heavily to parties opposing Likud because “the major efforts to help people come back are mostly among liberal circles,” she says.
许多选择回国的人曾在2023年参与过反对内塔尼亚胡司法改革的抗议活动，他们认为这些改革是对以色列民主制度的威胁。政府在2023年10月7日未能有效阻止哈马斯发动的袭击，以及其在加沙地带的军事行动，进一步加剧了他们的愤怒。Jenny Kananov（We Democracy组织的联合创始人之一）表示：“对于生活在海外的以色列人来说，这一切就像是在看一场‘慢动作’发生的车祸——他们感到这是最后一次机会，试图纠正这些错误。”
Many returning were involved in protests against Mr Netanyahu’s judicial reforms in 2023, which they saw as attacks on Israel’s democracy. The government’s failures to prevent the Hamas attacks on October 7th 2023, and its prosecution of war in Gaza have added to their anger. “For Israelis abroad it has been like watching a slow-motion car crash,” says Jenny Kananov, an Israeli co-founder of We Democracy, a network in Britain that supported Israel’s pro-democracy movement. “Some people feel this is the last chance to somehow try to make things right.