智能手机出货量在第三个日历季度下降了至少五分之一，因为受人工智能驱动的内存短缺冲击，另一个消费硬件市场也遭到打击。IDC和Omdia的初步估计分别将年同比下降幅度定为22%和20%。根据IDC的数据，自去年以来，内存成本已飙升约350%，并且仍在上升。这继续对供应商的利润空间造成巨大压力，促使他们提高价格标签并缩减市场价值端的设备。
Smartphone shipments fell by at least a fifth in the third calendar quarter as the AI-driven memory crunch battered another consumer hardware market. Preliminary estimates from IDC and Omdia put the year-on-year decline at 22 percent and 20 percent respectively. Memory costs have surged by approximately 350 percent since last year, according to IDC, and are still rising. This continues to place substantial pressure on vendor margins, prompting them to hike price tags and scale back on devices at the value end of the market.
IDC估计，供应商向分销渠道出货了2.553亿部智能手机，并警告称，这一衰退远未结束。“行业一直在准备的急剧下滑终于在今年第三季度出现了。然而，最坏的情况尚未到来，”IDC全球设备高级研究总监Nabila Popal表示。“当前指标表明，市场尚未触底。虽然内存通胀开始放缓，与前几个季度50%至100%的跳升相比，Q3环比仅出现个位数至低双位数的增长，但其他关键组件的成本仍然居高不下，进一步加剧了短缺。”
IDC estimates that vendors shipped 255.3 million smartphones into distribution channels and warns that the downturn is far from over. "The sharp downturn the industry has been bracing for finally materialized in the third quarter this year. However, the worst is yet to come," said Nabila Popal, IDC's senior research director for worldwide devices. "Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom. While memory inflation is beginning to slow down, with a low double-digit sequential increase in Q3 compared to a 50 to 100 percent jump in prior quarters, costs remain elevated across other critical components as well, compounding the crunch."
Omdia将出货量估计为大约2.55亿部，尽管年同比下降幅度不同，但这一数字接近IDC的估计。它表示，市场收缩进一步两极化了竞争格局，三星和苹果目前占全球出货量的约45%，较一年前上升了大约8个百分点，而成本上升对更敏感价格的细分市场打击尤为严重。Omdia仍预计，全球智能手机出货量将在2026年下降12%，随后在明年再下降6%。此前它曾预测，售价超过400美元的设备将更具韧性，并可能实现出货量增长。
Omdia puts shipments at roughly 255 million, close to IDC's estimate despite the different annual decline. It says that the shrinking market has further polarized the competitive landscape, with Samsung and Apple now accounting for about 45 percent of global shipments, up approximately 8 percentage points from a year ago, while rising costs hit more price-sensitive segments particularly hard. Omdia still expects global smartphone shipments to fall 12 percent across 2026, followed by another 6 percent decline next year. It previously forecast that devices priced above $400 would prove more resilient and could record shipment growth.
“我们预计在2028年之前，甚至更早，都不会看到当前内存危机的任何缓解，因为我们预计需求与供应之间仍将存在相当大的差距。我们所期待的改善的第一个迹象是内存价格将趋于稳定（基本停止增长），而我们目前尚未达到这一点，” Omdia 首席分析师 Runar Bjorhovde 对《The》表示。Omdia 表示，对分销合作伙伴关系和高端设备的投资可能决定哪些供应商在成本缓解时会变得更强。
"We don't anticipate any relief to the current memory crisis before 2028 at the earliest as we expect there to remain a considerable gap between demand and supply. The first signs of improvement we're looking for is when the memory pricing will stabilize (basically stopping to grow), and we're still not there yet," Omdia principal analyst Runar Bjorhovde told The. Omdia says investment in distribution partnerships and premium devices could determine which vendors emerge stronger when costs ease.
第四季度的新旗舰发布、促销活动和节日需求不太可能完全抵消持续的供应端压力。Omdia 认为，买家可能会习惯于支付更高的价格，从而可能为高价值设备创造更大的机遇。该公司此前曾概述一些手机制造商为抵消内存部件成本上升所采取的措施，包括转向更便宜的显示面板、传感器或射频（RF）模块。IDC 同样认为，在2028年之前几乎没有复苏的前景，并预计将出现向更高成本持续转移的趋势。它表示，那些能够调整其产品和定价的供应商将最有可能获得市场份额。®
New flagship launches, promotions, and festive demand in Q4 are unlikely to fully offset persistent supply-side pressures. Omdia reckons buyers may get used to paying more, potentially creating greater opportunities for higher-value devices. The firm previously outlined the measures some phone makers are taking to offset the rising cost of memory parts, including switching to cheaper display panels, sensors, or radio frequency (RF) modules. IDC also sees little prospect of recovery before 2028 and expects a lasting shift toward higher costs. It says vendors that adapt their products and pricing will be best placed to gain market share. ®