一系列风险交织在一起，威胁要让美国首次公开募股（IPO）管道陷入停滞，使得Anthropic PBC的潜在大型上市成为投资者少数可以指望的交易之一。
A cocktail of risks is threatening to stall the US IPO pipeline, leaving Anthropic PBC’s potential blockbuster debut as one of the few offerings that investors can count on.
多笔交易已经告吹，智能戒指制造商Oura Inc.和Bamboo Insurance Services Inc.推迟了计划，原因是利率攀升，伊朗战争持续。高知名度候选企业SB Energy Inc.和Nscale Ltd.已公开提交申请，但尚未开始正式营销，进一步让第四季度前景变得扑朔迷离。
Several deals have already come unglued, with smart-ring maker Oura Inc. and Bamboo Insurance Services Inc. postponing their plans as interest rates climbed higher and the Iran war dragged on. High-profile candidates SB Energy Inc. and Nscale Ltd. have filed publicly but haven’t yet started formal marketing, further muddying the fourth quarter outlook.
即使有些交易搁浅，股权资本市场银行家们仍将庆祝他们有史以来最好的费年份之一。Anthropic计划最早下个月与SpaceX创纪录的首次公开募股相媲美或超越，这次上市将远超所有其他潜在交易的总和。
Even with some deals falling by the wayside, equity capital markets bankers will be celebrating one of their best years ever for fees. Anthropic is seeking to match or exceed SpaceX’s record-setting debut as soon as next month, in a listing that would dwarf all of the other potential deals combined.
银行家们承认，由于包括即将举行的中期选举在内的因素，营销IPO变得更加困难，投资者也更加挑剔。
Bankers concede that marketing IPOs has become much harder due to factors including the upcoming midterm elections, and investors are more choosy.
“今年是IPO市场首次出现一点停顿，人们表示，‘在我们购买什么以及以什么价格购买方面，必须有一些差异化’，”Citigroup Inc.全球股权资本市场联席负责人Aloke Gupte表示。
“This is the first time this year that there has been a bit of a pause in the IPO market where folks are saying, ‘There’s got to be a little bit of differentiation in terms of how we evaluate what we buy and at what price’,” said Aloke Gupte, Citigroup Inc.’s co-head of global equity capital markets.
由于11月3日的美国中期选举，年底日程比往常更棘手，AI安全和数据中心已成为政策辩论的一部分，这也无济于事。
It doesn’t help that the end-of-year calendar is trickier than normal due to the Nov. 3 midterm US elections, where AI safety and data centers have become part of policy debates.
“纵观美国的政治格局和整体地缘政治形势，仅在过去六周内，未知因素的数量就大幅增加了，”摩根大通北美股权资本市场负责人戴维·鲍尔（David Bauer）表示。“这种不确定性的增加必然会对市场表现产生影响。”今年9月，市场就已经发出了警告：随着美国10年期国债收益率飙升超过50个基点，IPO活动明显放缓。根据彭博社的数据，仅有五家大型企业成功上市，筹集了19亿美元，这使得9月成为自3月以来IPO数量最少的月份。
“When you look at the US political landscape and geopolitics overall, the number of unknowns has gone up over the past six weeks alone,” said David Bauer, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of equity capital markets for North America. “That increase in uncertainty inevitably has an impact on how the market is going to behave.”A warning for the market sounded in September, with IPO activity slowing as US 10-year bond yields jumped more than 50 basis points. Only five sizable companies went public, raising $1.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it the slowest month since March.
这与今年前半年的情况形成了鲜明对比——当时SpaceX和韩国内存芯片制造商SK海力士（SK Hynix Inc.）的上市为市场带来了积极影响。
That’s in stark contrast with the picture for the year to date, bolstered by SpaceX and South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix Inc.’s listings.
根据彭博社的数据（该数据未包括那些通过特殊投资工具进行融资的公司），今年美国企业的IPO总融资额达到了1630亿美元，是去年同期的三倍多。今年最后一个季度的IPO活动可能会集中于某一笔重大交易上。
Companies have raised $163 billion in US IPOs this year, or more than three times last year’s haul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg that excludes listings by blank-check firms and other investment vehicles. The action in the final quarter of the year may be concentrated in one deal.
“尽管有可能出现备受瞩目的大型IPO，但对于整个IPO市场来说，接下来的两个月可能会非常平静，”美国银行（Bank of America Corp.）技术融资部门全球负责人J.D.莫里亚蒂（J.D. Moriarty）表示。
“In the midst of the best year for IPOs in a long time, it’ll likely be a very quiet two months for the broader IPO market, even with the possibility of a marquee deal coming to market,” said J.D. Moriarty, vice chairman and global head of technology ECM at Bank of America Corp.
“目前，投资者更关注自己持有的资产，而不是银行希望向他们展示的信息。”尽管最近人工智能市场的抛售令市场预期面临挑战，但大多数银行仍对投资者和企业能够在估值问题上找到平衡点持乐观态度。
“At the moment, investors are more focused on what they own than what bankers want to show them.”Most bankers remain optimistic that investors and companies can find a middle ground on valuation, despite expectations being challenged by the AI selloff in recent days.
尽管今年十大美国IPO交易中有7笔的交易价格低于其发行价，但SpaceX的强劲表现依然引起了投资组合管理者的关注；更何况，如果像Anthropic这样的大型企业也能取得类似的业绩，其影响将更加深远。
Even as 7 of the year’s 10 largest US deals trade below their IPO prices, SpaceX’s resilient performance isn’t lost on portfolio managers, not to mention the implications if a big deal like Anthropic’s delivers similar gains.
“市场对IPO的兴趣依然如故。目前所看到的一切变化都只是暂时性的，属于市场调整的结果，”巴克莱银行（Barclays Plc.）全球融资部门负责人约翰·科尔兹（John Kolz）说道。
“There is as much interest overall in IPOs as there has been. Anything we see going on is a bit temporal and mark-to market,” said John Kolz, Barclays Plc’s global head of ECM.
“仍然有人表示IPO表现并不理想，但仍在追问你接下来有什么计划，”科尔兹补充道。
“The same people saying that IPO performance has not been great are still asking what do you have coming,” Kolz added.
今年多次出现波动，且这些波动来得快去得也快，提交IPO申请的公司正保持选择开放。
Companies with live IPO filings are keeping their options open, after several outbreaks of volatility this year that faded almost as rapidly as they arrived.
“即使一家公司决定将时间表推迟至2027年初，他们也不会在今年剩余时间里停止工作，”摩根大通的鲍尔表示。“他们仍在与投资者互动，仍在讨论如何完善股权故事。他们正保持准备状态。一旦机会重新出现，人们将迅速行动。”有人认为，IPO市场重新获得动力只需一两个成功案例，而这些成功案例可能尚未出现在与AI主题高度相关的行业中。
“Even if a company decides to move their timeline into early 2027, they won’t go pens down for the rest of the year,” said JPMorgan’s Bauer. “They’re still engaging with investors, still talking about ways to refine the equity story. They’re staying ready. People will move quickly when the opportunity opens back up.”To some, all the IPO market needs to regain momentum is a win or two, and that could yet come from sectors not as exposed to the AI theme.
“拥有一定程度的多样性会有所帮助，但我们只需要几家常规方式的IPO能够定价良好且交易活跃，”巴克莱美洲ECM部门负责人罗布·斯托说。“这将使事情朝着正确的方向发展。”
“It would help to have some degree of diversity, but we just need a few regular-way IPOs to price and trade well,” said Rob Stowe, Barclays’ head of Americas ECM. “That will get things moving in the right direction.”