Somalia’s election commission has announced that parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in the country next year. Abdikarim Ahmed Hassan, chief of the Independent National Elections and Boundaries Commission (INEBC), made the announcement on the state broadcaster on Thursday, saying that elections for members of parliament for both the lower and upper chambers are planned for April 15, 2027, followed by a presidential vote scheduled for May 15.

A statement by the electoral body said the vote to elect a president was in accordance with a rule “which stipulates that the president’s term of office is five years, beginning on the date the president is sworn into office”.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s second term – starting in 2022 – ended earlier this year, but his government declared a “transition period” through a constitutional amendment in May, despite an agreement with the opposition to hold elections. Opposition parties boycotted that vote to amend the constitution and have rejected the changes since.

Mohamud is pushing to hold party-based elections to replace a system of electing established clan elders, but his attempts have been opposed by critics, who call his move a power grab.

Former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo called the decision to hold elections a “dangerous threat to Somalia’s statehood and future” in a post on X, and urged an agreement with all factions before a decision can be made on the polls.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, another former president, who was previously a leader of the opposition, warned that a “contested [electoral] process could lead to parallel elections” and even “civil conflict”, according to the AFP.

Meanwhile, the government welcomed the polling date announcements as an “important stage … towards reinforcing the country’s democratic system” and called on all parties to engage with the process, peacefully “in good faith”.

“There’s no political agreement to hold those elections,” analyst Samira Gaid told the AFP news agency.

“All the processes that the government is starting are leading to further fragmentation,” she said, adding that the government was essentially made up of Mogadishu and “two or three allied member states”.

Elections, Gaid said, would lead to “conflict and more confrontation within the remaining federal member states”. There was also scepticism in the capital Mogadishu, with some residents calling the announcement “one-sided”.

“Announcing an election schedule through a process driven by one side, and rejected by the opposition, is effectively declaring a new conflict,” Omar Said, a resident of the capital, told AFP.

Speaking to Al Jazeera earlier this month, President Mohamud said the country still faced significant security challenges, despite the al-Shabab group having no presence in the major cities, and despite there being little possibility of the group taking control in Somalia.

Al-Shabab is a Somali armed group that emerged from the Islamic Courts Union in the mid-2000s and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012. It has fought Somalia’s federal government for years, holds territory in parts of southern and central Somalia, and has carried out deadly attacks, including in Mogadishu and in neighbouring Kenya. Mohamud said the United States remained Somalia’s strongest partner in the fight against “terrorism”.

He also spoke on Somalia’s relations with neighbouring Ethiopia, describing ties as good, highlighting that Mogadishu does not object to landlocked Addis Ababa gaining access to the sea through a joint agreement to use Somali ports for its economic interests.

In January 2024, Addis Ababa signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on sea access, which Somalia condemned as a violation of its sovereignty. Somalia and Ethiopia later agreed to ease tensions.