奥兰多，佛罗里达州，10月15日：由于对推动智能革命建设的模糊、循环融资日益担忧，亚洲地区的AI股票抛售在周四显著加速，尽管其影响在欧洲和美国交易时段逐渐消散。尽管如此，避险资金流入意味着美国国债在数月内迎来了表现最好的一天之一，尽管美国生产者通胀出人意料地强劲上涨。今日关键阅读
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 15 : The AI equity rout accelerated significantly in Asia on Thursday on growing fears about the murky, circular financing powering the intelligence revolution's buildout, although its force evaporated in European and US trading hours. Still, safe-haven inflows meant US Treasuries had one of their best days in months, despite a surprisingly strong rise in US producer inflation. Today's Key Reads
- 今日关键市场动向股票：亚洲走低，韩国KOSPI下跌7.5%，触及六个月低点；日本日经指数下跌5%。英国股市上涨1%，达到七周高点。纳斯达克上涨0.1%，标普500指数上涨0.3%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1%。标普500指数八个板块上涨，三个板块下跌。科技板块下跌0.5%，能源板块下跌1.5%，医疗保健板块上涨2%。CoreWeave上涨6.5%，耐克上涨5%。惠普和戴尔下跌7%。外汇：美元走弱，跌幅达六周以来最大。瑞士法郎涨幅最大，上涨1%；巴西里尔跌幅最大，下跌1.5%。债券：德国国债收益率下降11个基点至3.35%，为一个多月来最低水平。美国10年期国债收益率下降10个基点至5.08%，收益率曲线趋平。CoreWeave及其他AI公司债券原油走势分化——布伦特原油持平，西德州中质原油上涨3%。黄金上涨1%，白银上涨3%。今日话题：有趣的钱 全球AI交易遭遇重大动荡。韩国KOSPI作为全球前十大指数之一，在短短一周内已蒸发约20%的市值，周四日本日经指数下跌5%。CoreWeave于四个月前发行的2032年期债券跌至每美元低于80美分，通常被视为困境债券水平；投保主要美国AI公司违约的成本已飙升至历史最高水平。
• CoreWeave's slump spotlights growing burden of debt behind AI boom • AI investment boom may be papering over US economic cracks: Mike Dolan • US producer prices post largest gain in 4-1/2 years; expensive gasoline boosts retail sales • Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: Asia in the red, South Korea -7.5 per cent to 6-month low, Japan -5 per cent. UK +1 per cent to 7-week high. Nasdaq +0.1 per cent, S&P 500 +0.3 per cent, Dow +1 perEight sectors on the S&P 500 rise, three fall. Tech -0.5 per cent, energy -1.5 per cent, healthcare +2 per cent. CoreWeave +6.5 per cent, Nike +5 per cent. Hewlett Packard, Dell -7 per cent.FX: Dollar slides, biggest fall in six weeks. Biggest gainer is Swiss franc, +1 per cent; biggest decliner is Brazilian real, -1.5 per cent.BONDS: Bund yield -11 bps to 3.35 per cent, lowest in over a month. US 10-year yield -10 bps to 5.08 per cent, curve flattens. CoreWeave and other AI corporate bondsOil mixed — Brent flat, WTI +3 per cent. Gold +1 per cent, silver +3 per cent. Today's Talking Points: Funny money The global AI trade has hit some major turbulence. South Korea's KOSPI, a top 10 global index, has lost 20 per cent of its value in barely a week, and on Thursday Japan's Nikkei slid 5 per cent.
一如既往，信贷市场可能会领先于股票市场，而自我实现的毁灭循环风险不容忽视——对特定名称的抛售会对更健康的信贷投射出阴影，而降级和失去投资级评级可能会迫使进一步抛售。与此同时，现金已被花掉，资本支出越来越多地通过债务、私人信贷和资产负债表外借款来融资。我们尚未达到危机点——看看今天美国股票和债券的反弹——但保持警惕是必要的。
CoreWeave 2032 bonds issued just four months ago fell below 80 cents in the dollar, typically considered distressed debt levels, and the cost of insuring against major US AI firms defaulting has soared to record levels. As ever, credit markets are likely to lead equities, and the risk of a self-fulfilling doom loop cannot be ignored — selling in certain names casts a shadow over healthier credits, and downgrades and loss of investment-grade ratings could force further selling. All while cash has been spent, and capex is increasingly being financed by debt, private credit and off-balance-sheet borrowing.
债券还是债券 即将到来的数据显示，美国生产者价格通胀高于预期，就像前一天的CPI一样，WTI原油再次飙升3%，而国债出现反弹。这听起来有些反直觉，尤其是考虑到固定收益市场在过去几周交易得如此活跃，但这表明国债作为避险资产的吸引力被夸大了。
We're not at crisis point yet — look at the rebound in US stocks and bonds today — but vigilance is required. Bonds be bonds Incoming data shows US producer price inflation is running hotter than expected, like CPI the day before, WTI crude spikes another 3 per cent, and Treasuries rally.
周四是今年国债表现最好的一天之一，尤其是10年期及以上的国债。问题在于，这是否是膝跳反应式的举动，还是股票持续波动和人工智能相关企业债务疲软会提醒投资者，传统的“无风险”资产才是对冲、分散和保护资本的最佳场所？超过5%的名义收益率保证似乎具有诱惑力。
Sounds counterintuitive, especially given how heavily fixed income markets have traded in recent weeks, but it shows that the demise of Treasuries' safe-haven appeal has been greatly exaggerated. Thursday was one of the best days of the year for Treasuries, especially for maturities of 10 years and beyond. The question is whether this is a knee-jerk move, or will continued volatility in equities and weakness in AI-related corporate debt remind investors that the best place to hedge, diversify and protect their capital is the traditional "risk-free" asset?
轮动、轮动、轮动 考虑到亚洲科技抛售的激烈程度以及盘初负面情绪的沉重压力，华尔街在周四的韧性相当令人惊叹。芯片股连续第七天下跌，这是四年来最长的连跌纪录，但纳斯达克小幅上扬，更令人印象深刻的是，道琼斯指数上涨1%，达到一个月来的最高点。
Guaranteed nominal yields of over 5 per cent appear to be tempting. Rotation, rotation, rotation Wall Street's resilience on Thursday was pretty remarkable, given the ferocity of the tech selloff in Asia and weight of negative sentiment at the session open.
随着美国财报季进入高潮，焦点将转向科技板块。预期门槛很高，若未能跨越，投资者可能决定加速将资金轮动至其他板块。科技板块的轮动通常持续多久？根据德意志银行的数据，自2024年中以来，轮动的平均时长为67天，中位数为59天。在这些期间的科技板块回撤方面，平均为16.6%，中位数为14.6%。明日可能影响市场的因素有哪些？
Chip stocks fell for a seventh day, their longest losing streak in four years, but the Nasdaq edged higher and, more impressively, the Dow rose 1 per cent to its highest in a month. As the US earnings season kicks into gear, the focus will be on tech. The bar of expectations is high, and if it is not hurdled, investors may decide to ramp up the rotation into other sectors. How long do rotations out of tech last? According to Deutsche Bank, since mid-2024 the average length of rotation is 67 days and the median is 59 days. In terms of tech drawdowns over these periods, the average is 16.6 per cent and the median is 14.6 per cent.
- 曼谷的国际货币基金组织/世界银行会议，美联储主席凯文·沃什，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，以及英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利等多位官员将发表讲话想要每个工作日早晨收到《交易日》邮件？点击此处。这些内容不代表路透社新闻的观点。路透社新闻秉持信任原则，致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。
What could move markets tomorrow? • IMF/World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey among several officials speaking Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? here. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.