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民调:巴西决选前博索纳罗略微领先卢拉Poll shows Bolsonaro with slight lead over Lula ahead of Brazilian run-off

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2026年10月13日,巴西巴西利亚,在10月25日总统决选前,一名女子在支持巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦竞选连任的示威活动中举起标语牌[阿德里亚诺·马查多/路透社]A woman holds up a sign at a demonstration in support of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid ahead of the October 25 presidential run-off in Brasilia, Brazil, October 13, 2026 [Adriano Machado/Reuters]

一项新民调显示,右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗在与总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的竞争中保持微弱领先,两位候选人正在为巴西紧张的10月25日决选投票争取优势。

A new poll has found that right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a slight lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as the two candidates seek an edge ahead of Brazil’s tense October 25 run-off vote.

Quaest民调于周四发布,显示博尔索纳罗——前极右翼总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子——将获得46%的选票,而卢拉为44%,这一差距在两个百分点的误差范围内。

A Quaest poll released on Thursday found that Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 44 percent, a difference within the two-percent margin of error.

博尔索纳罗在10月4日第一轮投票中表现超出预期,以不到两个百分点的优势击败卢拉,尽管大多数民调显示左翼总统有望在第一轮微弱获胜。两位候选人均未获得多数票,因而无法避免进入决选。

Bolsonaro outperformed expectations during the first round of voting on October 4, beating Lula by less than two points despite most polls suggesting that the leftist president was on track for a marginal first-round win. Neither candidate secured a majority that would have avoided a run-off.

这是Quaest自第一轮投票以来发布的首份民调,显示博尔索纳罗一直保持领先,并在进入第二轮时仍是热门人选。

The poll, the first released by Quaest since the initial round of voting, shows that Bolsonaro has held onto his lead and remains the favourite heading into the second round.

卢拉在10月4日失利后一直在努力动员其支持者,举办大型集会,吸引数百万人上街。

Lula has sought to rally his supporters after the October 4 loss, holding large rallies that have drawn millions of people onto the street.

尽管博尔索纳罗在民调中一直领先,但分析人士指出,他并未像预期那样从若干保守候选人的淘汰中获益——这些候选人的支持者原本可能更倾向于支持他而非卢拉。

While Bolsonaro has remained ahead in the polls, analysts have pointed out that he has not benefitted as much from the elimination of several conservative candidates, whose supporters would presumably prefer him to Lula, as might have been expected after the first round.

博尔索纳罗一直在争取右翼和中右翼政党的背书,试图巩固保守派支持,并构建一个对商业利益友好、符合投资者所寻求政策议程的联盟。

Bolsonaro has made progress securing endorsements from right and centre-right parties, however, seeking to consolidate support from conservatives and build a coalition friendly to business interests and a policy agenda sought by investors.

巴西参议院于周三批准了一项宪法修正案,将全国最高工作周从每周44小时降至40小时,且不降低工资,这为卢拉实现了一项关键优先事项,因为他正在向担心生活成本问题的选民陈述自己的主张。

Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment on Wednesday reducing the country’s maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours per week without a reduction in pay, delivering a key priority for Lula as the president presses his case to an electorate that is anxious about cost-of-living issues.

“今天是庆祝数百万工人实现历史性成就的日子,”卢拉在一份声明中表示。“这意味着拥有更多时间去生活、休息、与家人在一起、看着孩子长大、照顾自己、享受生活。那些为建设巴西付出艰辛劳动的人也应当拥有生活的时间。”总统还最近禁止了体育博彩,这导致赌瘾激增,并加剧了全国范围内家庭债务的激增。

“Today is a day to celebrate a historic achievement for millions of workers,” Lula said in a statement. “This means having more time to live, rest, be with family, watch your children grow up, take care of yourself, and enjoy life. Those who work so hard to build Brazil also deserve to have time to live.”The president also recently banned sports betting, which had caused an explosion of gambling addiction and contributed to surging household debt across the country.