Heavy reliance on imported soy feed in China’s massive pork industry puts affordable protein supply for its 1.4 billion people at risk amid rising regional conflicts and climate change, a new study has warned.

The nation, which relies largely on pork for its protein intake, was “exposed” to risks in access to this essential macronutrient, according to the Protein Sovereignty Index published by a Singapore-ed biotech firm on Friday.

China faced a medium level of risk on a global scale, as it ranked 21st among 43 countries and regions assessed by Full Circle Biotechnology. Its challenges mainly involved import exposure and resource headroom, according to the study, released in advance of Friday’s World Food Day.

In an era of growing focus on national security and resilience, the ability to secure affordable protein is being tested by Middle East conflicts that have disrupted fertiliser supplies and a strong El Nino weather pattern that has driven up fishmeal prices.

The best-performing country against this backdrop was Canada, the only country the study ranked as “sovereign” due to its large food-producing base and world-leading potash industry, the study said.

Ten countries or regions, including the United States and the European Union, were rated as “resilient”, while the rest were either “exposed”, “dependent” or “critically exposed”.

China was rated as “exposed” because producing nearly half of the world’s pork and the world’s largest farmed-fish harvest required “more feed than China can grow”, said Felix Collins, founder of the firm and co-author of the study.

While China grew almost all of its own rice and wheat, the top sources of calories, it imported about a third of its protein when counting animal feed – more than the US and EU imported combined, he said.

China sources most of its soybeans from Brazil and the US for animal feed and edible oil, as it saves its limited resources for more critical food plants.

“The North China Plain holds a quarter of the country’s cropland but less than 8 per cent of its water, so China cannot quickly grow more of its own feed,” Collins said.

From January to September, the country’s cumulative grain imports totalled about 117 million tonnes, up 9.7 per cent year on year, according to latest Chinese customs data. Soybean imports accounted for 73 per cent of the total, or 86 million tonnes.

A rapidly growing aquaculture sector, another source of protein, was also exposing China to risk because of increased demand for fishmeal imports, said Collins. Global fishmeal prices have hit all-time highs as the El Nino pattern warms the ocean near Peru, the world’s largest source of fishmeal, cutting its anchovy catch.

Facing scarce water and arable land resources, Beijing has been calling on the public to move away from a traditional diet centred on staple grains and pork and towards a more varied diet with more poultry and fish.

At a late-September press conference, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that China’s per capita meat availability in 2025 reached 72.5kg – about 1.5 times the world average – while per capita poultry and egg availability stood at 24.9kg, exceeding levels in developed countries.

To ensure people “have enough to eat, eat well, and eat nutritiously and healthily, we must not only tap the potential of arable land but also build a more diversified food supply system”, said Chen Bangxun, ministry spokesperson, as it vowed to develop deep-sea aquaculture to secure more high-quality protein.