印度信息技术股票有望在本周以二十年来最大的幅度战胜全球半导体竞争对手，分析人士表示，随着人工智能热潮的消退，该行业有望继续保持超额表现。
India’s information-technology stocks are poised to beat their global semiconductor rivals by the most in two decades this week, with analysts saying the sector is set to keep outperforming as the artificial-intelligence rally unwinds.
印度最大软件出口商指数在本周至周四期间上涨了7.5%，而MSCI全球芯片股指数则下跌了7.4%，使得前者有望实现自2004年以来最大的周度超额表现。近年来，人工智能股票因收入增长放缓、对基础设施融资的担忧以及再次出现的加息预期而下跌，导致市场担忧这些公司被高估。
An index of India’s biggest software exporters surged 7.5% this week through Thursday, while a MSCI gauge of global chip stocks tumbled 7.4%, putting the former on course for the biggest weekly outperformance since 2004. AI shares have tumbled in recent days as slowing revenue growth, concerns about infrastructure financing, and renewed fears of rate hikes have fueled concerns that the companies are overvalued.
“如果半导体的修正势头增强，就像本周这样，外国投资者将开始关注印度的IT股票，” Societe Generale SA 班加罗尔分部亚洲策略师 Rajat Agarwal 表示。“我们可能会看到这些公司的去估值化结束，而这本身应该带来稳定。” IT股票也出现了一些积极信号。HCL Technologies Ltd. 本周上调了全年销售增长指引，而爱尔兰注册的Accenture Plc 表示，它预计将在2029年前通过提高收入增长和利润率来实现目标。
“If the correction in semiconductors gains momentum, as it has this week, foreign investors will start looking at Indian IT stocks,” said Rajat Agarwal, an Asia strategist at Societe Generale SA in Bengaluru. “We could probably see the end of de-rating in these companies, which itself should bring stability.”There have also been some positive signs for IT shares. HCL Technologies Ltd. raised its full-year sales growth guidance this week, while Ireland-based Accenture Plc said it expects to increase revenue growth and profit margins through 2029.
今年早些时候，印度最大的IT公司曾卷入全球软件股票的抛售潮，因为一些投资者担心人工智能可能会颠覆其商业模式。在地缘政治担忧和客户对更低价格需求上升的背景下，收入增长放缓也削弱了投资者情绪。
India’s largest IT firms were swept up in a global selloff in software stocks earlier this year, as some investors feared that AI could disrupt their business models. Slowing revenue growth amid geopolitical concerns and rising client demand for lower prices also sapped investor sentiment.
Nifty IT 指数自7月低点以来已上涨近20%，但今年至今仍下跌19%，有望录得自2022年以来最差的年度表现。
The Nifty IT index has climbed almost 20% from its July low, but it’s still down 19% this year, putting it on track for its worst annual performance since 2022.
“尽管估值目前在相对和绝对基础上看来合理，但该行业缺乏近期催化剂，”摩根士丹利分析师团队由 Gaurav Rateria 领导，在本周的一份报告中写道。
“Although valuations appear reasonable now, on a relative and absolute basis, the sector lacks near-term catalysts,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Gaurav Rateria wrote in a note this week.
摩根士丹利分析师表示，全球首席信息官最新调查显示，2027年实现稳定增长，结合埃森哲的财报，这表明印度IT企业的收入增长将呈现稳定至放缓的态势。
The latest survey of chief information officers globally showed stable growth in 2027, and together with Accenture’s earnings, that points to steady-to-decelerating revenue growth for Indian IT firms, the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
尽管如此，软件股目前的估值已是自疫情年以来的最低水平。Nifty IT指数成分股的市盈率低于其未来一年盈利的17倍，比五年平均水平低近两个标准差。
Still, software stocks are now the cheapest they have been since the pandemic year. Stocks in the Nifty IT Index trade at less than 17 times their one-year forward earnings, nearly two standard deviations below the five-year average.
该行业的风向标股票——印孚瑟斯有限公司（Infosys Ltd.）将于10月23日发布第二季度财报及评论。这家总部位于班加罗尔的公司预计将报告仅1.8%的收入增长。展望未来，市场中至少有人看到更长期的反弹可能。
The sector’s bellwether, Infosys Ltd., is due to release its second-quarter earnings and commentary on Oct. 23, with the Bengaluru-based firm expected to report revenue growth of just 1.8%. Looking ahead, at least some in the market see a longer rebound.
“过去主要创新的分析表明，虽然转型初期确实出现了放缓，但随后立即迎来了更长期的增长时期，”埃德尔维斯资产管理有限公司（Edelweiss Asset Management Ltd.）股票基金经理苏曼塔·汗（Sumanta Khan）表示。
“An analysis of major innovations in the past indicates that while early stages of transition did witness a slowdown, it was immediately followed by a longer period of growth,” said Sumanta Khan, fund manager for equity at Edelweiss Asset Management Ltd.