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机器人玩偶、芯片短缺和苹果销售疲软Robot dolls, chip shortages and Apple's soft sales

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大家好,我是香港的Cissy。本周中国政治中令我最惊讶的一件事是,对前重庆市长黄奇帆的调查。他曾在两位被查的中共重量级人物薄熙来和孙政才手下工作,却在这两次清洗中幸免于难。

Hello everyone, this is Cissy in Hong Kong. One of the biggest surprises in Chinese politics for me this week was the probe into Huang Qifan, the former Chongqing mayor who served under two disgraced Chinese Communist Party heavyweights - Bo Xilai and Sun Zhengcai - and somehow emerged unscathed from both purges.

2019年,我在上海参加活动时,无意中听到黄奇帆与中国一家最大民营企业董事长的对话。董事长问他:“你周围的人一个接一个被抓,你到底有什么秘诀能够幸存?”黄奇帆笑了笑,说了些模糊的话,并补充说他总有一天会写一本书,讲述他经历的一切。如今,七年过去了,在这本书出版前,他因涉嫌腐败正接受调查。

In 2019, when I was in Shanghai for an event, I overheard a conversation between Huang and the chairman of one of China's biggest private companies. The chairman asked Huang: "What's your secret for surviving when everyone around you keeps getting arrested?" Huang laughed, said something vague, and added that he would one day write a book about everything he has been through. Seven years later, before we can read that book, he is now under investigation for alleged corruption.

调查的真实原因目前尚不清楚。有人猜测是因为他退休后太高调;也有人怀疑是单纯的腐败问题。无论哪种情况,他曾经的政治不可触碰的光环已经消失。

The real reasons for the inquiry remain unknown. Some speculate that he has been too high-profile after his retirement; others suspect straightforward corruption. Either way, his aura of political invincibility has vanished.

与此同时,国内也很忙碌。周二,我参加了香港贸易发展局组织的电子产品展。展会再次充斥着来自中国大陆的机器人。

It has also been a busy week on the ground. On Tuesday, I visited an electronics show organized by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. It was another event once again awash with robots from mainland China.

其中引起广泛关注的是优必选的伴侣型人形机器人:一个身材真实大小的女性形象,长卷发,精致妆容,香奈儿风格套装,珠光闪亮的高跟鞋。机器人坐在沙发上——或者说,我更愿意称它为娃娃——乍一看让我误以为是真人。它看起来就像一个典型的中国社交媒体网红,在任何背景下摆拍照片。

One that drew plenty of attention was UBTech's companion humanoid robot: a life-size female figure with long, curly hair, delicate makeup, a Chanel-style skirt suit and pearlescent, glittery high heels. Sitting on a sofa, the robot - or, as I'd rather call it, doll - fooled me into thinking it was a real person at first glance. It looked just like a typical Chinese social media influencer posing for photos against just about any backdrop.

近距离观察,其面部特征很像真人,这很大程度上归功于化妆。但它的手臂和腿部皮肤却暴露了它是由硅胶制成的。

Up close, the face reads as human, largely thanks to makeup. The skin on its arms and legs, however, was a dead giveaway that it was made of silicone.

我会称它为带聊天机器人的娃娃,因为它甚至跳不出其他机器人的舞步,但市场显然持不同看法。该产品已经在中国开始发货,男性版本的销量超过了女性版本,客户群体主要集中在年轻女性,优必选全球销售总监告诉我。

I'd call it a doll with a chatbot, as it cannot even dance like other robots, but the market apparently disagrees. The product has already begun shipping in China, with the male version outselling the female one, and the customer base skewing heavily toward young women, UBTech's global sales director told me.

她补充说,人们正在为这个生物花费2万美元,用于情感支持。一款具备自主导航和更高算力的旗舰型号售价13万美元。

She added that people are spending $20,000 on this creature to use it for emotional support. A flagship model featuring autonomous navigation and higher computing power costs $130,000.

全球销售总监还告诉我,公司认为日本可能成为其最大市场,因为该国存在巨大的潜在需求。优必选仍在努力获取在那里销售机器人所需的必要认证。

The global sales director also told me that the company believes Japan could become their biggest market due to huge potential demand in the country. UBTech is still working to obtain the necessary certifications to sell its robots there.

NTT将为Anthropic建设其首个日本数据中心 这不仅是中国机器人制造商将目光投向日本。美国前沿人工智能实验室也在寻求在那里扩张,据日经新闻的清水浩介、谷本胜之、田村修吾报道,Anthropic将在该国建立其首个专用数据中心。

NTT to build Anthropic's first Japan data center It's not just Chinese robot makers setting their sights on Japan. U.S. frontier AI labs are also looking to expand there, with Anthropic set to establish its first dedicated data center in the country, according to Nikkei's Kosuke Shimizu, Katsuyuki Tanimoto Shugo Tamura It will be built by Japan's NTT Data Group, the world's third-largest data center operator by market share.

该设施将由日本NTT数据集团建设,该公司是全球按市场份额计算的第三大数据中心运营商。位于大阪府的该设施将成为日本最大的数据中心之一,潜在成本可能达到1万亿日元(约63亿美元),如果包括后期安装的先进AI服务器,成本可能达到数万亿日元。

The facility in Osaka prefecture will be one of Japan's largest, potentially costing 1 trillion yen ($6.3 billion), or several trillion yen if including the advanced AI servers to be installed later.

但获取电力将是一个挑战,因此项目最初将考虑替代方案,包括现场发电和燃料电池。

But securing power will be a challenge, so the project will initially consider alternatives, including on-site generation and fuel cells.

中国的人工智能芯片短缺 中国已将人工智能发展作为国家战略优先事项,今年国内人工智能芯片产量翻倍以上,这一增长由华为、阿里巴巴、百度和寒武纪等公司带动。

China's AI chip shortfall China has made AI development a national strategic priority and more than doubled the production of domestic AI chips this year, led by companies including Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu and Cambricon.

但这仍然不足以满足该国最大科技公司激增的需求,据《金融时报》的吴子晶和埃莉诺·奥尔科特报道。

But it is still not enough to meet soaring demand from the country's biggest tech companies, report the FT's Zijing Wu Eleanor Olcott.

根据熟悉其计划的人士透露,阿里巴巴、字节跳动和腾讯三家公司今年的资本支出预计将翻倍以上,达到约7000亿元人民币(1040亿美元)。

Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent alone are expected to more than double their capital expenditure this year to about 700 billion yuan ($104 billion), according to people familiar with their plans.

行业内部人士表示,今年国内AI芯片供应预计将达到多达350万单元,其中约100万单元是在海外制造的,但总需求预计将远超500万单元。

Domestic supply of AI chips is expected to reach as many as 3.5 million units this year, including about 1 million manufactured overseas, but total demand is estimated to far exceed 5 million, according to industry insiders.

这种失衡预计明年将更加突出。国内芯片产量预计将再次增长,但需求可能翻倍以上,超过1000万单元,导致显著缺口。

The imbalance is expected to become even more pronounced next year. Domestic chip production is forecast to increase again, but demand could more than double, exceeding 10 million units and leaving a significant shortfall.

需求与国内供应之间的差距不断扩大,这不仅给试图赶上美国竞争对手的中国科技集团带来挑战,也给北京带来压力,因为北京正试图打造一个自给自足的人工智能产业。

The widening gap between demand and domestic supply presents a challenge not only for Chinese tech groups trying to catch up with U.S. rivals but also for Beijing as it seeks to build a self-sufficient AI industry.

为了弥合这一差距,中国科技集团已转向使用符合美国出口管制的英伟达游戏和工作站处理器,这些芯片可被改造用于部分人工智能工作负载。

To help bridge the gap, Chinese technology groups have turned to Nvidia's gaming and workstation processors that comply with U.S. export controls but can be repurposed for some AI workloads.

多位行业内部人士透露,中国科技公司今年已购买了超过100万颗英伟达游戏和工作站芯片。这是《金融时报》关于中国数据中心梦想三篇系列报道的第二篇。SB Energy为软银的人工智能布局奠基日本软银正在超越科技投资范围,致力于构建支撑人工智能所需的物理基础设施。这一转型的核心是一个位于俄亥俄州的提案中的330亿美元天然气发电厂及数据中心园区,旨在服务于OpenAI的需求,据日经亚洲的Tsubasa Suruga、Pak Yiu Yifan Yu报道。

Chinese technology companies have bought more than 1 million Nvidia gaming and workstation chips this year, according to multiple industry insiders. in the second of the FT's three-part series on China's data center dreams. SB Energy does SoftBank's AI spadework Japan's SoftBank is expanding beyond tech investments to build the physical infrastructure needed to power AI. At the heart of this shift is a proposed $33 billion natural gas-fired power complex and data center campus in Ohio, set to serve OpenAI's needs, Nikkei Asia's Tsubasa Suruga, Pak Yiu Yifan Yu write.

其中一名开发商是SB Energy,这是一家可再生能源公司,如今已成为软银集团创始人孙正义将业务扩展至人工智能基础设施计划的核心。该公司于9月申请在纳斯达克上市,寻求约500亿美元的估值,但由于人工智能相关股票的波动,该发行此后被推迟。

One of the developers is SB Energy, a renewable energy company now central to SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son's plans to expand into AI infrastructure. The company filed for a Nasdaq listing in September, seeking an estimated $50 billion valuation, but the offering has since been delayed following volatility in AI-linked stocks.

然而,SB Energy的大部分收入仍来自电力和可再生能源业务,因为它目前尚未拥有运营中的数据中心。该公司上半年净亏损约为32亿美元。分析人士认为,该业务是一项高风险高回报的能源布局。

However, most of SB Energy's revenue still comes from power and renewable energy operations, as it has no operational data centers yet. The company posted a net loss of about $3.2 billion in the first half of the year. Analysts view the venture as a high-risk, high-reward power play.

与此同时,SB Energy与OpenAI和Nvidia的密切关系也可能令投资者担忧。这两家公司预计将成为重要股东,而OpenAI是其大多数计划中数据中心的锚定客户。Nvidia将为这些数据中心提供运行所需的芯片,并正在为部分项目提供融资支持。苹果因需求疲软削减iPhone 18 Pro订单苹果正在削减其新推出的iPhone 18 Pro和iPhone 18 Pro Max的零部件订单,相比原始需求,10月份的订单量将至少下降15%。

Meanwhile, SB Energy's close ties with OpenAI and Nvidia may also concern investors. The two are expected to become important shareholders, while OpenAI is the anchor customer for most of its planned data centers. Nvidia supplies the chips that will run inside them and is supporting financing arrangements for some projects. Apple cuts iPhone 18 Pro orders due to soft demand Apple is cutting orders for components for its newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, slashing them by at least 15% in October compared to the original request.

多位熟悉情况的人士向《日经亚洲》的程廷芳Lauly Li透露,存储芯片成本飙升导致涨价,从而抑制了消费者需求。另一位消息人士表示,从8月下旬到10月的需求量相比往年有所下降,但这可能与苹果调整iPhone机型发布时间表有关。

Soaring memory chip costs forced price increases that have dampened consumer demand, multiple people familiar with the matter told Nikkei Asia's Cheng Ting-Fang Lauly Li Another source said that volume demand from late August into October has been softer than previous years, but that this could be related to Apple changing its launch schedule for iPhone models.

尽管出货量下降,但由于所有机型相比去年均涨价至少10%,因此短期内不会直接导致苹果收入下降。

The decline in shipment volume would not immediately translate into lower revenue for Apple, as all models have become at least 10% more expensive than last year's.

推荐阅读 中国 CXMT 的内存突破让芯片竞争对手陷入被动 FT 观点:保护时间的集体全球责任 受英伟达支持的数据中心供应商 Firmus 取消 50 亿美元澳大利亚 IPO 软银寻求从海湾投资者处获得 1000 亿美元以扩大 AI 投注 TSMC、英特尔供应商 Qnity 押注本地生产以赢得业务 GoPro 衰退后,中国相机竞争对手争夺主导地位 Grab、Foodpanda 在新加坡加热杂货配送战 日本因攻击激增宣布网络空间紧急状态 机器人咖啡师和 K-pop 舞者引领韩国物理 AI 热潮 台湾前线的生育诊所 播客:科技最新 新加坡现在是否成为 AI 供应链的关键环节?

Suggested reads Memory breakthrough by China's CXMT puts chip rivals on back foot FT View: The collective global duty to safeguard time Nvidia-backed data center provider Firmus scraps $5bn Australian IPO SoftBank seeks $100bn from Gulf investors to expand AI bet TSMC, Intel supplier Qnity bets on local production to win business Chinese camera rivals battle for dominance after GoPro's decline Grab, Foodpanda heat up grocery delivery war in Singapore Japan declares cyber space emergency as attacks soar Robot baristas and K-pop dancers lead South Korea's physical AI boom The fertility clinic on Taiwan's front line Podcast: Tech Latest Is Singapore now a key link in AI supply chain?

欢迎收听科技最新播客。每周二,我们为您带来科技领域的最热趋势和新闻。

Welcome to the Tech Latest podcast. Every Tuesday, we deliver the hottest trends and news from the tech sector.

本期节目,主持人克里斯·纳特尔与首席科技记者 Annie Cheng Ting-Fang 讨论了芯片制造商为何在新加坡快速扩张,AI 需求如何给关键芯片和组件的产能带来压力,以及当前的短缺是否最终可能演变为供过于求。

In this episode, host Chris Nuttall speaks with chief tech correspondent Annie Cheng Ting-Fang about why chipmakers are expanding rapidly in Singapore how AI demand is straining capacity for essential chips and components, and whether current shortages could eventually give way to a glut.

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Find us on Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube YouTube Music Amazon Music Voicy