印尼股市自一月以来跌幅最大，原因是MSCI公司称该国不再符合新兴市场资格，可能被剔除出其全球指数，并引发外资撤离的担忧。该指数提供商正就一项让印尼获得独立地位的提案进行咨询，称降为前沿市场并不能充分反映该国市场问题的严重性。MSCI表示，除非发现市场治理和运作有明显实质性改善的明确证据，否则将推进此项变更。
Indonesian stocks fell by the most since January after MSCI Inc. said the country no longer merits emerging-market status, risking an ejection from its global indexes and triggering fears of foreign capital flight. The index provider is consulting on a proposal to give Indonesia standalone status, saying a downgrade to frontier would not adequately reflect the severity of the country’s market problems. MSCI expects to proceed with the change unless it finds clear evidence of material improvements in market governance and functioning.
MSCI在周四的声明中指出，尽管印尼当局已宣布改革，但“仍然对市场功能失调存在重大担忧，包括持续的可疑协同交易行为以及缺乏有意义执法的证据”。
Despite reforms announced by Indonesian authorities, “significant concerns remain around market dysfunction, including continued suspected coordinated trading behaviour and lack of evidence of meaningful enforcement,” MSCI said in a statement Thursday.
雅加达综合指数周五开盘下跌8%，触发30分钟的交易暂停，加深了今年迄今的跌幅，使其已成为全球同业中表现最差的市场。印尼盾兑美元汇率下跌0.5%，至18,035印尼盾每美元，10年期主权债券收益率基本持平。
The Jakarta Composite Index dropped 8% at the open on Friday to trigger a 30-minute trading halt, deepening a year-to-date decline that already makes it the worst-performing market among global peers. The rupiah weakened 0.5% to 18,035 per dollar, while the yield on 10-year sovereign bonds was little changed.MSCI’s proposed reclassification applies fresh pressure on a market already battered by investability concerns and policy uncertainty under President Prabowo Subianto.
MSCI提出的重新分类给本已因可投资性担忧和普拉博沃·苏比安托总统执政下的政策不确定性而受挫的市场施加了新的压力。继MSCI一月的警告引发历史性股市抛售数月后，这一最新提案对普拉博沃吸引外资进入东南亚最大经济体的雄心构成重大打击。
Coming months after MSCI’s January warning sparked a historic stock rout, the latest proposal marks a major blow to Prabowo’s ambitions of drawing foreign capital to Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
印尼证券交易所在声明中表示，将就重新分类计划背后的理由和评估标准向MSCI寻求澄清，并补充称该国已实施“显著的进展和改革措施”。独立地位仅保留给不符合MSCI新兴市场或前沿市场指数纳入标准的市场。
In a statement, the Indonesia Stock Exchange said it plans to seek clarification from MSCI on the rationale and assessment criteria behind the reclassification plan, adding the country has implemented “significant progress and reform measures.”Standalone status is reserved for markets that don’t meet MSCI’s criteria for inclusion in either its emerging- or frontier-market indexes.
阿根廷、黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦等市场被列入该名单，亚洲地区没有任何市场入选。单独的分类可能会迫使追踪MSCI新兴市场指数的被动基金卖出印尼持仓，而以这些指数为基准的主动基金经理也可能减少敞口。失去新兴市场和前沿市场基准的双重准入可能会进一步削弱外国投资者需求，从而对股价和流动性造成额外压力。
Argentina, Lebanon and Palestine are among the markets with the designation, with none in Asia.A standalone classification could force passive funds tracking MSCI’s emerging-market indexes to sell Indonesian holdings, while active managers benchmarked against those indexes may also cut exposure. Losing access to both emerging- and frontier-market benchmarks could further weaken foreign investor demand, putting additional pressure on share prices and liquidity.“We want to make sure our market is very competitive and market friendly, and any feedback from market participants is always noted,” said Pandu Sjahrir, chief investment officer of Danantara.
“我们希望确保我们的市场具有很强的竞争力和市场友好性，市场参与者的任何反馈我们都会予以关注，”丹安塔拉首席投资官Pandu Sjahrir表示。最新的MSCI举措“仅仅是延续了印尼在可投资性方面的下降趋势，”拿骚1982银行首席经济学家Win Thin表示，他指出股市可能面临进一步资金外流的风险。根据彭博社汇总的数据，外资基金今年以来已净卖出49亿美元的印尼股票。
The latest MSCI move “simply continues the downward trend for Indonesia in terms of investibility,” said Win Thin, chief economist Bank of Nassau 1982, who sees a risk of further capital outflows from the stock market. Foreign funds have pulled a net $4.9 billion from Indonesian stocks so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
主要股票基准今年以来已下跌38%。这些外流对印尼盾造成压力，印尼盾今年已贬值约8%，成为亚洲表现最差的货币。“更深层的修正”：“我们预计，外国抛售压力和市场波动将持续到印尼的地位明朗为止，”印尼Kiwoom证券研究部主任Liza Camelia Suryanata在一份报告中写道。“雅加达综合指数可能会经历更深层的修正。”
The main stock benchmark has fallen 38% so far this year. The outflows have weighed on the rupiah, which has fallen about 8% this year, making it Asia’s worst-performing currency.‘Deeper Correction’“We anticipate that foreign selling pressure and market volatility will persist until there is clarity concerning Indonesia’s standing,” Liza Camelia Suryanata, head of research at PT Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, wrote in a note. “The JCI could undergo a deeper correction.”
MSCI表示，此次咨询将持续至2027年4月30日，最终决定预计将在2027年6月30日前作出。印尼当局已宣布一系列旨在避免降级的改革措施，包括加强对持股比例超过1%的股东的披露、更详细的投资者分类以及制定实现最低自由流通股比例15%的路线图。
The MSCI consultation will run through April 30, 2027, with a final decision expected by June 30, MSCI said. Indonesian authorities have announced a series of reforms aimed at averting a downgrade, including enhanced disclosure of shareholders with ownership above 1%, more detailed investor classifications and a roadmap toward a minimum free-float requirement of 15%.
当局还在制定一项计划，计划在6月任命新的首席执行官后将该交易所从“互助型”（mutual-type）结构转变为“公司型”（corporate-type）结构。不过，MSCI表示投资者需要看到这些措施得到切实执行，并且需要证据表明这些措施确实能够改善市场运作效率。MSCI在6月推迟了对该国股市的评估，称需要更多时间来验证最近宣布的透明度改革措施是否有效。
Authorities are also working on a plan to demutualize the exchange after appointing a new chief executive officer in June. But MSCI has said investors need to see consistent implementation and evidence that the measures are materially improving market functioning. MSCI in June postponed its review on the nation’s equities, saying it needs more time to see whether recently announced transparency measures are effective.
在周四发布的声明中，MSCI还表示，在另行通知之前，将继续暂停涉及印度尼西亚证券的任何指数调整。与此同时，FTSE Russell本月早些时候也重申了印度尼西亚股市的“新兴市场”地位，这得益于当地政府所采取的各项举措。马斯克同意就2024年选举相关的诉讼问题达成和解。
In the Thursday announcement, MSCI said it will also maintain its freeze on certain index changes involving Indonesian securities until further notice. Meanwhile, FTSE Russell earlier this month reaffirmed the emerging-market status of Indonesian equities amid efforts taken by local authorities. Musk agrees to settle lawsuits over 2024 election lottery