One of Australia’s largest grain-growing states is seeing signs of a significantly larger wheat crop year-on-year, potentially helping bring relief to buyers across Southeast Asia and the Middle East facing supply headaches from the escalating conflict in the Black Sea.

During a two-day tour of wheat and barley crops in northwestern Victoria’s grain belt, scouts repeatedly saw large crops with high yields, and only minor signs of water damage and disease. The tour was organized by the Grain Industry Association of Victoria, with three legs heading toward Horsham and Ouyen, and Wagga Wagga in neighboring New South Wales. The official findings will be released within the coming week.

“We struggled to find a poor low-yielding crop that would normally be cut for hay, or put the sheep on, over the 900 kilometers (559 miles) we traveled over two days,” said Dominic Hogan, manager at Outlook Commodities, who took part in the tour. “In fact, the crops were so high, we couldn’t see any sheep at all.”Victoria is expected to be a bright spot in a mixed season for Australia, with dry conditions severely hampering grain yields in northeastern states including Queensland, while the Western Australia crop is currently forecast to come in about three million tons below the previous bumper year.

Australia’s 2026/27 crop is being closely watched across the world, as the escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to strikes on grain terminals and ships in the Black Sea, significantly constraining exports of wheat from two of the world’s largest producers.

Nations such as Vietnam and Indonesia have already begun seeking out alternative sources for agricultural produce, with Australia on track to ship about 50% more grain than average in October, partly off the back of surging international demand. It also comes at a time of rising global food inflation, which hit the highest since November 2022 this month due to geopolitical challenges and weather disruptions.

An average of spot prices for premium white wheat at five of Australia’s largest grain ports is currently sitting near a more than two-year high despite harvesting beginning across the country.

The results from the tour would buoy grain buyers struggling to find supplies of wheat, said Eliza Redfern, senior manager industry insights for Bendigo Bank Agribusiness. “It’ll be good and it’ll be in high demand both here and internationally,” she said in an interview during the crop tour. “Even for those regions in Victoria that typically do see lower-yielding crops, they’re stronger than what they historically are.”Like much of the farming world, Victoria was initially expected to experience a smaller harvest due to high input prices for fuel and fertilizer sparked by the war in Iran, while the looming risk of a severe El Niño weather system threatened to bring long stretches of dry, hot weather just as the crop was reaching a crucial stage.

However the fears appear unfounded at this stage, although a low chance of severe weather hangs over the crop until it is harvested through the coming month. Outlook Commodities’ Hogan said the final yield and quality will be in the hands of “the weather gods.”“If it gets through this period unscathed, it’s time to ring the bell on the Victorian grain crops,” he said.