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IPO荒正驱使私募股权持有的公司转向债务市场以回报投资者The IPO drought is driving private equity-owned companies to the debt market to pay investors

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数据显示,私募股权基金正日益推动其投资组合公司承担更多债务,以向投资者返还现金。

Private equity funds are increasingly pushing their portfolio companies to take on more debt to return cash to their investors, data suggests.

这一趋势出现的背景是,私募股权投资的传统变现方式 — — 通过IPO出售公司股权,或将其转让给其他私募基金或买家 — — 在近年来已趋于枯竭。

It comes as the typical ways of monetizing private equity investments — selling company stakes via IPOs, or offloading them to other PE funds or buyers — have dried up in recent years.

虽然投资者能够获得回报,但私募股权赞助商通过向公司增加债务来分红的做法 — — 被称为股息再融资(dividend recapitalizations) — — 存在削弱其投资能力或应对未来交易低迷的风险。

While investors get paid, the practice of private equity sponsors adding more debt to companies — known as dividend recapitalizations — risks weakening their ability to invest or weather future downturns in trading.

自2022年以来,“股息再融资”活动激增,穆迪评级预计,随着私募股权公司寻求向投资者返还资金,而公司出售和IPO活动仍然低迷,该做法在欧洲、中东和非洲地区将保持高位。

"Dividend recap" activity has surged since 2022, and Moody's Ratings expects it to remain high in Europe, the Middle East and Africa as private equity firms look for ways to return money to investors while company sales and IPOs remain subdued.

该评级机构估计,欧洲、中东和非洲地区的私募股权所有公司在触发通常会导致评级下调的杠杆水平之前,还可能再承担410亿欧元(约460亿美元)的债务。退出渠道仍然“寥寥无几”穆迪的最新分析表明,这一做法主要局限于表现最强、具备承担新债务最大能力的公司,表明这种“显著的再杠杆能力”可能进一步支撑股息再融资的增长。

The ratings agency estimates that private equity-owned companies in the EMEA region could take on a further 41 billion euros ($46 billion) in debt before reaching leverage levels that typically prompt a downgrade. Exits remain 'few and far between' New Moody's analysis indicates the practice remains limited to the strongest-performing companies with the greatest capacity to take on new debt, indicating this "significant releveraging capacity" could support a further ramp-up in dividend recaps.

然而,这并未解决私募股权领域存在的退出积压问题 — — 基金目前被迫将持有期延长至远超典型的五到六年周期。

Still, it does not address the exit backlog weighing over private equity, where funds are now having to hold onto companies for much longer than the typical period of around five to six years.

“根本问题是退出机会寥寥无几——欧洲IPO市场一直低迷,而通常用于大型企业战略收购的资本在上一轮加息周期后变得更为昂贵,”穆迪分析师Mayank Mallik表示。“总体而言,我们更关注私募股权生态系统对企业信用质量的影响——而这是目前的关键传导机制之一。”穆迪表示,私募股权赞助人在选择股息再融资候选对象时一直保持“纪律性”,服务业、消费品和制造业是最活跃的行业。

"The fundamental problem is that exits are few and far between – the European IPO markets have been muted, and the capital that would generally fund strategic purchases by large corporates has become a lot more expensive after the last rate hike cycle," said Moody's analyst Mayank Mallik. "Generally, we are more focused on the impact that the general PE ecosystem has on corporate credit quality — and this is one of the key transmission mechanisms currently." Moody's said PE sponsors have remained "disciplined" in choosing dividend recap candidates, with services, consumer products and manufacturing the most active sectors.

Mallik指出,大多数股息再融资涉及业绩超出原计划的公司,新增债务通常将杠杆率恢复到初始水平,且不会“实质性”影响退出机会。

Mallik noted most dividend recaps have involved companies that outperformed their original business plans, with the new debt generally returning leverage to its initial level without "materially" affecting exit opportunities.

“然而,准备IPO的公司倾向于在接近市场前展示几年稳健去杠杆化的记录,”他通过CNBC告诉记者。“确实存在风险:如果IPO窗口意外打开,最近刚完成股息再融资的发行人可能无法抓住机遇。进行股息再融资的公司很可能持前瞻性看法,认为短期内IPO市场将保持闭塞。”近年来,向投资者的分配大幅下降。穆迪引用PitchBook数据称,私募股权分配从2022年净资产初始值的30%以上降至目前约12%。

"It is true, however, that companies preparing for IPOs like to show a track record of solid deleveraging for a couple of years before approaching the market," he told CNBC via "There is indeed a risk that, if an IPO window unexpectedly opens, issuers that have recently done a div recap may not be able to jump on the opportunity. Any company doing a div-recap is likely taking a forward-looking view that the IPO market will be closed in the short run." Distributions to investors have fallen sharply in recent years. Moody's, citing PitchBook data, said private equity distributions dropped from more than 30% of starting net asset value in 2022 to about 12% today.

“风险在于,如果私募股权退出积压持续延长,赞助人可能开始关注较弱的信用资产以实现变现,这可能导致整个投资组合的信用质量恶化,”Mallik补充道。

"The risk is that if PE exit backlog is prolonged, sponsors may start looking at relatively weaker credits to monetize, which may lead to credit deterioration across the portfolio," Mallik added.

他表示,这些风险如今比十年前更大,部分原因是发行人寻求额外融资时的文件条件变得相当宽松。

He said that those risks are greater than a decade ago, partly because documentation has become "quite permissive" for issuers looking to raise additional debt.

信贷市场趋紧为企业再融资提供了支持目前,这些企业的再融资资金主要来自广泛参与的贷款市场:多家投资银行会联合起来向借款人提供贷款,从而分散风险。另一种融资方式是通过发行高收益企业债券或进行私人信贷借款。

Tighter credit markets support recaps — for now Portfolio companies' recaps are typically funded through the broadly syndicated loan market, where several investment banks will club together to lend money to a borrower, thereby spreading the risk. Alternatively, funding is raised by high-yield corporate bond issuance or private credit borrowing.

Raymond James公司全球私人资本咨询部门负责人Sunaina Sinha Haldea表示,目前市场上仍有足够的融资能力来支持企业的再融资需求;她指出,信贷利差收窄以及新贷款供应不足正在推动投资者继续参与此类融资活动。

Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James, said there is still "meaningful capacity" to fund recaps, highlighting how tight spreads and scarce new loan supply are helping support appetite.

她进一步解释道:“如果企业盈利能力下降、信贷利差扩大或投资者撤资,融资难度可能会增加;而收购融资市场的复苏将为贷款机构提供更多资金来源,从而帮助他们满足股东的资金需求。”

"Weaker earnings, wider spreads or investor withdrawals could tighten availability, while a recovery in acquisition financing would give lenders more alternatives to funding shareholder payouts," she said.

Haldea还指出,股息再融资能够为企业提供流动性,缓解其出售资产的压力,但并不能从根本上解决企业估值与市场估值之间的差距。她对CNBC表示:“投资者可以收回部分资金,但资产仍留在基金中,最终仍需要找到买家。”

她强调:“如果企业的盈利能力提升确实为其带来了足够的融资能力,那么股息再融资并不会阻碍企业的退出计划;但若企业仅依靠预期中的增长来获取融资,情况就不同了。更多的债务会降低企业的财务灵活性,当企业最终被出售时,股东的权益价值也会相应减少。”

Haldea noted that dividend recaps provide liquidity, relieving the pressure to sell without ultimately resolving the valuation gap. "Investors get some cash back, but the asset remains in the fund and still needs an eventual buyer," Haldea told CNBC via "A dividend recap need not derail an exit if earnings growth has created genuine borrowing capacity, but borrowing against hoped-for growth is a different proposition. More debt means less financial flexibility and, at the same enterprise value, less equity value left for shareholders when the business is eventually sold."