随着收益率攀升至数十年来的最高水平，全球一些最大的基金正逐渐对美国国债产生兴趣。Jupiter资产管理公司的哈里·理查兹（Harry Richards）却并非如此。
Some of the world’s biggest funds are warming to US Treasuries as yields climb to multi-decade highs. Jupiter Asset Management’s Harry Richards isn’t one of them.
这位常驻伦敦的经理在该家资产规模达759亿英镑（折合1010亿美元）的公司协助管理Jupiter的战略债券策略，他在5年前后几乎卖出了手头的所有美债，目前几乎没有重新买入的意愿。他认为英国和新西兰债券存在更好的机会，那里的市场可能已经消化了过多的紧缩预期。
The London-based manager at the £75.9 billion ($101 billion) firm, who helps run Jupiter’s strategic bond strategy, sold virtually all his Treasuries around May and has little appetite to return. He sees better opportunities in UK and New Zealand bonds, where markets may have priced in too much tightening.
理查兹在接受采访时谈到美债时表示：“当我们把我们认为未来表现最好的资产进行排名时——它对我们来说依然不在榜单的前列。从现阶段来看，美国的增长看起来非常健康，比许多其他发达市场要好得多。”将美债收益率推至2002年以来最高水平的抛售潮，让投资者不禁发问，债券是否终于具备了足够的吸引力去买入。例如，太平洋投资管理公司和摩根士丹利投资管理公司就对美国债务变得更加积极。
“When we’re stacking up the leaderboard of where we think may do the best going forward — it’s still not on the top of the list for us,” Richards said in an interview, referring to Treasuries. “Growth looks to be very healthy in the US, much better than many other developed markets out there at this stage.”The selloff that sent Treasury yields to their highest since 2002 has investors asking whether bonds are finally attractive enough to buy. Pacific Investment Management Co. and Morgan Stanley Investment Management, for example, have turned more positive on US debt.
周五，10年期美债收益率在5.08%附近，低于本月早些时候触及的5.36%的高位。受美国与伊朗战争推高的能源价格以及美联储加息押注的推动，收益率一直在走高。彭博社的美国政府债务回报指标今年已下跌1.6%。
The 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.08% Friday, down from a high of 5.36% reached earlier this month. Yields have been driven higher by elevated energy prices fueled by the US-Iran war and bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Bloomberg’s returns gauge for US government debt has dropped 1.6% this year.
美联储主席凯文·沃什周五在曼谷发表讲话时未提供关于政策的新信号，仅表示央行将实现价格稳定，且他不会对会议进行预判。交易员将对10月27日至28日会议加息的押注从他讲话前的约27%削减至15%以下。
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh offered no new signals on policy when he spoke Friday in Bangkok, saying only that the central bank will deliver price stability and that he doesn’t prejudge meetings. Traders pared bets on a rate hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting to below 15%, from about 27% before he spoke.
彭博社策略师表示……由于高昂的能源成本刺激了通胀，美债依然容易受到新一轮下跌的影响，这种动态也可能抑制股市的任何反弹。——加菲尔德·雷诺兹（Garfield Reynolds），MLIV团队负责人。
What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say...Treasuries remain vulnerable to renewed declines as elevated energy costs spur inflation, a dynamic that also may restrain any rebounds in stocks. — Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader. Click here for more.
理查兹在其他地方看到了更好的价值。他表示，人工智能热潮“显然在美国引发了一些需求价格压力”，而其他经济体“没有相同的人工智能主题，或者至少没有达到同样的程度”。这使得德国国债、英国金边债券和新西兰债务更具吸引力。如果这些经济体降温，加息押注可能会迅速消退，并让位于降息预期，从而提振对债券的需求。
Richards sees better value elsewhere. The AI boom is “clearly causing some demand price pressure” in the US, he said, while other economies “don’t have the same AI themes, or at least to the same extent.”That makes German bunds, UK gilts and New Zealand debt more appealing. If those economies cool, rate-hike bets could quickly unwind and give way to expectations for cuts, boosting demand for bonds.
他说：“经济增长更为疲软。其中一些国家的劳动力市场相当薄弱，比如英国。”根据其事实说明书，截至8月31日的一年里，Jupiter的战略债券基金回报率为5.4%，跑赢了其可比基准3.8%的涨幅。在三年里，两者的回报率均为20.8%。
“Growth is softer,” he said. “Some of them have pretty weak labor markets, like the UK.”Jupiter’s strategic bond fund returned 5.4% in the one year through Aug. 31, outperforming its comparable benchmark’s 3.8% gain, according to its fact sheet. Over three years, both returned 20.8%.