美国正在加速安装创纪录规模的清洁能源，今年及明年均将实现这一目标，原因在于开发商争相抢夺即将到期的联邦税收抵免，同时数据中心用电需求激增推动了增长。
The US is on track to install record amounts of clean energy this year and next as developers race to claim expiring federal tax credits and as soaring data-center electricity demand stimulates growth.
但同样的数据中心热潮也正在推动天然气的大规模扩张，削弱了可再生能源建设的气候效益。
But the same data-center boom is also driving a major expansion of natural gas, undercutting the climate benefits of the renewables buildout.
这一发现是彭博新能源财经（BloombergNEF）最新发布的《美国清洁能源市场展望》的一部分，该报告于周五发布。
The findings are part of BloombergNEF’s latest US Clean Energy Market Outlook, released Friday.
“当我们从整体来看时，我们仍然认为数据中心增长是可再生能源的顺风，但它正被日益增长的天然气管道所玷污，”报告作者霍尔·韦尔本（Hall Wellborn）表示。
“When we look at the picture holistically, we still see data center growth as a tailwind to renewable energy, but it is tainted by the growing gas pipeline,” said Hall Wellborn, an author of the report.
彭博新能源财经预计，美国今年将新增创纪录的89吉瓦清洁能源，并在2027年超过这一水平。尽管开发商正面临更高的融资成本、贸易壁垒以及设备成本和供应的不确定性，这一增长势头仍在持续。
BNEF expects the US to add a record 89 gigawatts of clean energy this year and to surpass that level in 2027. The surge is coming even as developers contend with more expensive financing, trade barriers and uncertainty over equipment costs and availability.
同时，彭博新能源财经预计，到2030年，美国将新增67.8吉瓦的燃气发电能力。考虑到同期仅有14.3吉瓦的燃气发电能力计划退役，新增管道将带来可观的净增长。
At the same time, 67.8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power could be added through 2030, according to BNEF. With just 14.3 gigawatts of gas generation slated to close over that period, the pipeline would amount to a substantial net increase.
人工智能和数据中心的快速增长正日益塑造美国的能源预测。彭博新能源财经现在预计，到2030年，已安装的数据中心容量将达到118吉瓦，较其仅在去年12月作出的预测高出52%。到2035年，数据中心的平均用电需求可能达到120吉瓦，约为当前水平的五倍，其中与人工智能相关的计算将承担近一半。
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence and data centers is increasingly shaping US energy forecasts. BNEF now expects installed data-center capacity to reach 118 gigawatts in 2030, which is 52% higher than its projections made only last December. Average data-center power demand could reach 120 gigawatts by 2035, roughly five times current levels, with AI-related computing responsible for nearly half.
相当一部分新建数据中心将依赖现场天然气系统供电。虽然美国是全球最大的化石燃料供应商，但如此巨大的需求将给国内供应带来压力，彭博新能源财经预计，该行业将从过剩生产转为供应不足，且这一转变可能早在2028年就发生。
A significant portion of new data centers will be powered by on-site natural gas systems. While the US is the world’s largest supplier of the fossil fuel, all that demand is going to tax domestic supply, and BNEF expects the industry to swing from surplus production to a deficit as soon as 2028.
然而，这一繁荣也在改善清洁能源项目的前景。彭博新能源财经（BNEF）将其到2036年陆上风电新增装机容量的预测上调了15%，达到99.7吉瓦，部分原因是考虑到了数据中心的需求。
Yet the boom is also improving the outlook for clean-energy projects. BNEF revised up by 15% its forecast through 2036 for onshore wind additions, to 99.7 gigawatts, partly in light of data-center demand.
电池的前景改善更为显著。BNEF现在预测，到2036年将安装383吉瓦的储能容量，较今年早些时候的预测高出35%。尽管对部分可再生能源项目的支持正在减弱，但联邦对储能的激励措施仍然保持不变。
The outlook for batteries has improved even more. BNEF now projects that 383 gigawatts of storage will be installed through 2036, 35% more than it expected earlier this year. Federal incentives for storage remain in place even as support for some renewable projects winds down.
太阳能将继续占据新增清洁能源发电的最大份额。分析师预计，仅在2026年就将安装48.9吉瓦的太阳能容量，因为开发商正在推进那些已获得即将到期税收优惠资格的项目。然而，由于新关税和税收抵免的逐步取消，2026年至2036年期间的公用事业规模太阳能预测已被下调7.5%，至430吉瓦。
Solar will continue to account for the biggest share of new clean generation. The analysts expect 48.9 gigawatts to be installed in 2026 alone as developers push ahead with projects that secured eligibility for expiring tax incentives. However, the utility-scale solar forecast for the period 2026 to 2036 has been revised down by 7.5%, to 430 gigawatts, due to new tariffs and the tax-credit phaseout.
科技公司自身也在承担清洁能源扩张的大部分成本。根据BNEF的数据，截至8月，企业清洁能源采购合同的公告总额已超过15吉瓦。Meta Platforms公司和Alphabet公司旗下的谷歌共同占据了这一总额的近四分之三。
Technology companies are themselves underwriting a large portion of the clean-energy expansion. More than 15 gigawatts of corporate clean-power contracts were announced through August, according to BNEF. Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google represented nearly three-quarters of that total.
电力需求的增长也在重新点燃人们对核能的兴趣，尽管新建反应堆仍然成本高昂且需要数年才能建成。更直接的收益可以来自重启已关闭的反应堆以及提升现有核电厂的输出功率。这些项目，加上有限数量的新建核电厂，预计将在2036年前新增13.7吉瓦的核能装机容量。
Rising electricity needs are also renewing interest in nuclear power, although new reactors remain expensive and can take years to develop. More immediate gains can come from restarting closed reactors and increasing output from existing plants. Those projects, along with a limited number of new plants, are expected to add 13.7 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2036.