早上好。2020年大选的一个最能说明问题的数据点是，唐纳德·特朗普赢得了美国83%的县，但这些县仅占美国国内生产总值的29%。
Good morning. One of the most telling data points from the 2020 election was that Donald Trump won 83% of America’s counties, but those counties accounted for only 29% of the U.S. gross domestic product.
相比之下，乔·拜登赢得了美国17%的县，但这些地区贡献了全国经济产出的70%以上。
Joe Biden, by contrast, won 17% of U.S. counties, but those places produced more than 70% of the nation’s economic output.
这清楚地说明了美国两个政党代表着两种不同的经济。民主党在城市和人口稠密的内郊地区占主导地位，这些地区是国家专业阶层聚集的地方。共和党在非都市地区拥有影响力，这些地区农业、采矿和基础制造业的工作更为常见。该党的势力范围拥有大量土地，但在全国经济中的份额较小。
It was a stark illustration of how America’s two political parties represent two different economies. Democrats dominate in cities and populous inner suburbs, where the nation’s professional class is clustered. Republicans hold sway in nonmetropolitan areas, where jobs in agriculture, mining and basic manufacturing are more common. The party’s footprint has lots of land, but a smaller share of the national economy.
现在有迹象表明，这种固化的经济格局可能会发生变化。最新的《华尔街日报》民意调查显示，农村选民是那些对共和党热情下降的群体之一，他们在国会选举中更倾向于支持共和党而非民主党，领先幅度为18个百分点。美联社VoteCast调查发现，在2024年众议院选举中，农村选民在全国普选中支持共和党的幅度达到34个百分点。
Now there are signs this calcified economic map could change. Rural voters are among those showing less enthusiasm for the Republican Party, the most recent Wall Street Journal poll shows, and favor a Republican for Congress over a Democrat by 18 points. In the 2024 House races, they backed Republicans by 34 points in the national popular vote, the AP VoteCast survey found.
这种转变是民主党今年在爱荷华州、密歇根州和威斯康星州众议院选举中前景看好的原因之一，这些选区包括农村社区和小城镇；同样，在北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的参议院选举中也是如此。
The shift is one reason Democrats have rising prospects this year in House races in Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin that include rural communities and small towns, as well as in Senate races in North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska.
如果民主党赢得这些选举，并成功削弱共和党在农村和小城镇社区的传统优势，那么这可能会扩大该党在2028年总统选举中的选举人团机遇。这也将使国会中代表农村和小城镇产业的声音更加多元化。
If Democrats win those races and manage to dent the GOP’s traditional lead in rural and small-town communities into the future, it could expand the party’s Electoral College opportunities in the 2028 presidential election. It would also diversify the representation that rural and small-town industries have in Congress.
根据马克·穆罗和布鲁金斯学会同事制作的GDP数据，2020年大选是国家经济分歧的最近高点。支持特朗普的县在2016年占GDP的36%，在2024年占38%，这两个比例都高于2020年拜登-特朗普选举中的29%。
The 2020 race was a recent high-water mark in the nation’s economic divide, according to the GDP data produced by Mark Muro and Brookings Institution colleagues. Trump-supporting counties accounted for 36% of GDP in 2016 and 38% in 2024, greater shares than the 29% in the 2020 Biden-Trump election.
霍华德·卢特尼克：商务部长因反对大幅削减关税，使得美国-墨西哥贸易谈判的前景进一步蒙上阴影，熟悉谈判情况的人士表示。
Howard Lutnick: The commerce secretary has thrown the future of U.S.-Mexico trade talks into further doubt as he objects to a significant reductions in tariffs, people familiar with the talks have said.
利率：美联储主席凯文·沃什拒绝透露央行是否将在本月会议上加息，他说：“我们已经不再从事这项业务了。”特朗普的星期五：今天总统将前往佐治亚州的道尔顿，届时他将于今下午举行中期选举集会。随后他将前往佛罗里达州的棕榈滩，参加今晚的共和党全国委员会活动。
Interest rates: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has declined to signal whether the central bank will raise rates at its meeting this month, saying, “We’re not in that business anymore.”Trump’s Friday: Today the president will travel to Dalton, Ga., where he will hold a midterm rally this afternoon. Then he will head to Palm Beach, Fla., to attend a Republican National Committee event this evening.
司法部起诉加利福尼亚州，以阻止2万名选民的邮寄选票。特朗普政府称这些选民可能不是美国公民，并正在扩大其联邦对选举的控制力度。加州州务卿雪莉·韦伯表示，流传的名单“既缺乏细节也缺乏功能，无法具备任何调查价值”，并且联邦政府从未解释其怀疑名单上人员为非公民的依据。
The Justice Department sued California to block mail-in ballots from 20,000 people. The Trump administration, which says the voters might not be U.S. citizens, is extending its efforts to expand federal control over elections. California’s Secretary of State Shirley Weber says a circulating list of names “lacks both the detail and function to be of any investigative use,” and that the federal government has never explained its basis for suspecting that people on the list are noncitizens.
特朗普取消了计划中的军事处决直播。这名前军官曾承认在2009年德克萨斯州福德胡德陆军基地的枪击事件中杀害13人，他仍将面临枪决，但特朗普对现场电视直播可能呈现的血腥场面表示担忧。国防部官员皮特·赫格塞斯曾推动该直播计划，但一些美国官员担心此举会为对手提供宣传胜利。
Trump scrubbed the planned livestream of a military execution. The former officer who admitted to killing 13 people in a 2009 shooting at Fort Hood Army base in Texas will still die by firing squad, but Trump expressed concerns about a bloody spectacle on live television. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had advanced the livestream plan, but some U.S. officials worried the approach would hand a propaganda victory to adversaries.
来自佛罗里达的一位极左翼长期冷门人选成为互联网上最受欢迎的民主党人。佛罗里达州的民主党参议员候选人安吉·尼克松在TikTok上获得的喜爱程度超过大牌民主党人——而参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默则获得更多批评。根据《华尔街日报》对自9月1日起发布或播出的数千条TikTok视频、播客节目和政治新闻节目的分析，该党本身正同时受到左右两翼的攻击。
A far-left long shot from Florida is the internet’s favorite Democrat. Florida’s Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon gets more love on TikTok than big-name Democrats—and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer gets more grief. The party itself is taking heat from both the right and left, according to a Journal analysis of thousands of TikTok videos, podcast episodes and political-news programs published or aired since Sept. 1.
古巴导弹危机始于1962年。10月16日，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统获悉，一架侦察机拍摄的照片显示，苏联正在古巴建造核导弹基地。随后几天，肯尼迪下令对古巴实施海军“隔离”，因为苏联船只正驶向该国，同时一架美国侦察机被击落。13天后，双方达成协议，苏联同意拆除武器基地，以换取美国承诺不入侵古巴，事件得以解决。
The Cuban Missile Crisis began, in 1962. President John F. Kennedy was informed on Oct. 16 of photos taken by a spy plane showing nuclear-missile sites being built by the Soviet Union on Cuba. Over the ensuing days, Kennedy order a naval “quarantine” of Cuba as Soviet ships were sailing to the country, and a U.S. reconnaissance plane was shot down. The incident was resolved 13 days later when the two nations agreed that the Soviets would dismantle the weapon sites in exchange for a pledge from the U.S. not to invade Cuba.
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