亚历克西斯的观点 伊朗战争正在成为非洲能源领域发生地震式转变的催化剂。而在非洲首富阿利科·丹格特的案例中，冲突证明了那句老话——机遇是准备遇到机会时发生的事情。
Alexis’s view The Iran war is shaping up to be the catalyst of a seismic shift in Africa’s energy sector. And, in the case of the continent’s richest man Aliko Dangote, the conflict has proven the old adage that luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
丹格特位于拉各斯州郊区的巨型炼油厂揭示了西非市场因本地炼油燃料供应不足而规模巨大的事实，同时通过展示非洲炼油厂能够向欧洲和亚洲供应市场，颠覆了传统观念。与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡的动荡暴露了严重依赖燃料进口国家的脆弱性：南非和肯尼亚已提高油价，这有可能推动通胀上升。与此同时，尼日利亚总统博拉·蒂努布三年前取消燃油补贴的举措，使得油价飙升，将燃油成本转化为一月份大选前的关键竞选议题。
Dangote’s mega-refinery on the outskirts of Lagos State has revealed the scale of a West African market underserved by locally refined fuel, while upending conventional thinking by showing African refineries can supply markets in Europe and Asia. At the same time, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of nations that are heavily dependent on fuel imports: South Africa and Kenya have hiked prices, which runs the risk of driving inflation. Meanwhile, President Bola Tinubu’s removal of Nigeria’s subsidy three years ago has allowed prices to skyrocket, turning the cost of fuel into a key campaign issue ahead of January’s election.
政策制定者已迅速对能源动态的变化作出反应。南非宣布计划自 apartheid 结束以来首次增加其战略石油储备，以缓解供应冲击；安哥拉希望实施更快速的勘探特许权，并敦促南非洲各国政府帮助融资建设新炼油厂；在乌干达和坦桑尼亚建设炼油厂的计划也在加速推进。
Policymakers have been quick to react to the altered energy dynamics. South Africa announced plans to increase its strategic oil reserves for the first time since the end of apartheid to mitigate supply shocks, Angola wants to implement faster exploration concessions while urging southern African governments to help finance a new refinery, and plans to build refineries in Uganda and Tanzania have gathered pace.
多边贷款机构非洲金融公司肯尼亚地区办事处主任弗奥拉·法格布勒——该机构曾帮助融资丹格特的拉各斯炼油厂——称该尼日利亚亿万富翁的项目影响为“大爆炸”时刻。他告诉我，各大洲正在开展各种项目，“这是能源市场新现实的结果。”这一转变也潜藏风险。标普全球能源部门全球燃料与炼油研究主管丹尼尔·埃文斯承认，非洲对下游投资的需求正在增加，但他警告称，对于需要高额资本支出的项目，困难仍然存在。
Fola Fagbule, who heads the Kenya regional office of multilateral lender Africa Finance Corporation, which helped to finance Dangote’s Lagos refinery, called the impact of the Nigerian billionaire’s project a “Big Bang” moment. He told me various projects are being developed across the continent “as a result of the new realities in the energy market.”The shift has potential pitfalls. Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, acknowledged the increased appetite for downstream investment across Africa, but warned difficulties remain around projects that require high levels of capital expenditure.
但新一代炼油厂有潜力改变经济格局，不仅能够保护各国免受未来能源冲击，还能提供提升制造业所需的基荷电力。正如法格布勒所言，这种范式转变的遗产可能在于它引发了“非洲前所未料的大规模工业化”。著名的丹格特炼油厂正推动将其股份出售范围扩大至埃及，表明非洲规模最大的首次公开募股很可能呈现更泛非洲化的格局。
But a new generation of refineries has the potential to transform economies, not only protecting countries from future energy shocks but providing the baseload power needed to ramp up manufacturing. As Fagbule put it, the legacy of this paradigm shift could be how it triggered “massive, large-scale industrialization in Africa that nobody expected.”Notable Dangote Refinery is pushing to extend the sale of its shares to Egypt, indicating that Africa’s largest IPO is likely to take a more pan-African shape.