周一将公布两项关键经济数据，这可能决定加拿大央行本月晚些时候是否加息。
Two key economic data releases Monday could make or break the case for a Bank of Canada interest-rate hike later this month.
统计局将于渥太华时间上午8:30发布9月份通胀数据，随后央行将公布其最新的企业和消费者前景调查。这些将是政策制定者在10月28日作出下一次利率决策前，了解经济如何应对油价驱动的通胀风险及加剧的贸易紧张局势带来的影响的最后重要线索。
Statistics Canada will release September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. Ottawa time, and the central bank will publish its latest business and consumer outlook surveys shortly after.
官员们在过去七次决策中一直将基准利率维持在2.25%。但政策制定者已表明，他们担心汽油价格长期保持高位，企业更有可能对其他商品和服务提价。
They will be the final major clues to how the economy is weathering oil-driven inflation risks and the fallout from escalating trade tensions before policymakers make their next rate decision on Oct. 28. Officials have held the benchmark rate steady at 2.25% for the past seven decisions.
鸽派预测者正指向9月份的劳动力数据，该数据显示出岗位流失和失业率上升。但如果周一的数据发布显示价格压力持续且经济趋于稳定，这可能不足以阻止政策制定者加息。
But policymakers have signaled they’re worried that the longer gasoline prices remain elevated, the more likely firms will raise prices on other goods and services. Dovish forecasters are pointing to September labor data, which showed job losses and a rising unemployment rate.
“如果通胀数据偏热且企业前景调查强劲，那么即使就业数据疲弱，10月加息也仍在考虑之列，”蒙特利尔银行的加拿大利率和宏观策略师本杰明·雷茨斯在接受采访时表示。
But that might not be enough to keep policymakers from raising rates if Monday’s data releases show persistent price pressures and a steadying economy.
最新的通胀数据对央行的决策尤为关键。消费者价格指数的年度涨幅已连续数月徘徊在3%左右，这是麦克莱姆行长称之为“过高”的水平。尽管年度核心通胀指标接近央行2%的目标，但近期价格压力的趋势已有所加速。关键问题在于通胀是否存在进一步上升的风险。
“If you get a hot inflation print and the business outlook survey is strong, then an October hike is on the table, even with the weak jobs number,” Benjamin Reitzes, a Canadian rates and macro strategist with the Bank of Montreal, said in an interview. The latest inflation data will be especially crucial to the bank’s decision. The headline yearly change in the consumer price index has held near 3% for months, which Governor Tiff Macklem has called “too high.”Annual core inflation metrics are close to the bank’s 2% target, though the more recent trend in price pressures has accelerated.
TD证券的宏观策略师罗伯特·博思表示，他将特别关注央行修整和中位数核心通胀指标的月度变化，以及涨幅达到3%或以上的CPI组成部分所占的比重。
The big question is whether inflation is at risk of flaring up further.
他说道：“如果我们看到核心商品的通胀有所增加，我会感到担忧。”他指的是除食品和能源以外的产品，如衣物和家具。
Robert Both, a macro strategist at TD Securities, said he’ll pay particularly close attention to monthly changes in the bank’s trim and median core measures and the share of CPI components rising at 3% or more. “I’d be concerned if we were seeing more inflation coming through core goods,” he said, describing products other than food and energy, like clothes and furniture.
银行的商业展望和消费者调查将有助于评估加拿大人对通胀和支出的预期。
The bank’s business outlook and consumer surveys will help gauge Canadians’ outlook for inflation and spending.
如果这些调查显示，尽管移民放缓以及与美国的关税战，企业和家庭仍表现出韧性，那么这将缓解人们对增长的担忧。然而，如果企业计划削减招聘和投资支出，正如加拿大国家银行经济与战略主管泰勒·施莱希所说，这可能会让银行犹豫，并表明第二季度的经济反弹增长可能不会持续。
If they show evidence that firms and households are resilient, despite slower immigration and the tariff war with the US, it would ease worries about growth. If firms plan to pull back on hiring and investment spending, however, it could give the bank pause and suggest that the second quarter economic rebound growth won’t last, said Taylor Schleich, director of economics and strategy at National Bank of Canada.
“他们似乎相当有信心，认为企业已经适应了情况，”他说。“我们拭目以待。”如果调查显示通胀预期甚至更高，官员们将会感到担忧。央行还可能询问企业关于其定价行为的情况，包括它们是否预期将更高的输入成本转嫁给客户。
“They seem to be pretty confident that businesses have adapted,” he said. “We’ll see.”Officials will be concerned if the surveys express even higher inflation expectations. The central bank may also ask firms about their pricing behavior, including whether they expect to pass higher input costs on to customers.
截至周五早上，市场认为本月末加息的概率约为30%。大多数经济学家认为央行目前尚未开始紧缩借贷成本，尽管共识表明加息可能早在2027年某时开始。
Markets put the odds of a hike at the end of the month at about 30% as of Friday morning. Most economists don’t see the central bank tightening borrowing costs just yet, though the consensus suggests hikes are likely to start sometime in 2027.
周六，麦克莱姆将在曼谷的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议上接受记者采访。
On Saturday, Macklem will speak to reporters from International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.