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华尔街日报

迈克尔·戴尔,互联网时代的幸存者,有应对人工智能泡沫的建议Michael Dell, a Dot-Com Era Survivor, Has Tips to Beat an AI Bust

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迈克尔·戴尔(伊恩·莫尔/彭博社)Michael Dell (Ian Maule/Bloomberg)

[视频] 戴尔如何从个人电脑之王转型为人工智能基础设施巨头受惊的投资者正在逃离一些因人工智能热潮而达到新高的大型科技公司。

[video] How Dell Transformed From PC King to AI Infrastructure Giant Spooked investors are fleeing some of the big-tech companies that reached new highs on the back of the artificial-intelligence boom.

但迈克尔·戴尔表示,他的公司有能力应对风暴。他于1984年在宿舍里以1000美元创立的面向消费者的个人电脑公司,如今已转向提供科技巨头们需求旺盛的强大超级计算机。而其销售这些产品的策略,使其在从全球前所未有的人工智能基础设施建设中获益最多的企业中相对独树一帜。

But Michael Dell says his company is well-placed to weather a storm. The direct-to-consumer PC company he founded in a dorm room in 1984 with $1,000 has pivoted to delivering the powerful supercomputers that tech giants can’t get enough of. And its strategy for selling them makes it relatively unique among the businesses benefiting most from the world’s unprecedented AI infrastructure build-out.

戴尔依赖其人工智能服务器和个人电脑的即时制造,这实际上使其能够让客户为其运营和库存提供资金。与此同时,亚马逊公司和谷歌等超大规模云服务商,以及它们人工智能数据中心的建设者——所谓的“新云”如CoreWeave、Nebius和Crusoe——正在通过举债来为其人工智能枢纽的建设提供资金。

Dell relies on just-in-time manufacturing of its AI servers and PCs, which has allowed it, in essence, to get its customers to finance its operations and inventory. Meanwhile, hyperscalers like Amazon.com and Google and the builders of their AI data centers—the so-called neoclouds like CoreWeave, Nebius and Crusoe—are piling on debt to fund the build-out of their AI hubs.

戴尔科技的估值如今几乎是一年前的四倍,这一增长得益于其当前财年收入预计增长70%的预期。

Dell Technologies’ valuation is almost four times what it was a year ago, boosted by a projected 70% increase in revenue for its current fiscal year.

当我周二询问戴尔他是如何为人工智能周期可能出现的下滑做准备时,他说:“这确实带来了一些新挑战,但如果你看看我们的现金转换周期,它仍然是负的。” 这句话的意思是:戴尔仅在客户下单时才制造强大的人工智能服务器。通过提前收取客户付款,并延长向供应商付款的时间,戴尔能够将这些款项留在账上数天甚至数周,从而获得现金缓冲,规避因库存过多而带来的风险。

When I asked Dell on Tuesday about how he was preparing his company for a possible downturn in the AI cycle, he said, “There are some new challenges that this presents, but if you look at our cash conversion cycle, it’s still negative.”Translation: Dell manufactures powerful AI servers only when customers order them. And by taking payment from customers upfront, and extending the period over which it pays its vendors, Dell is able to sit on those payments for days or even weeks, giving it a cash cushion and insulating it from the risk of holding too much inventory.

戴尔有众多竞争对手销售大型强大计算机,包括超微电脑、惠普企业和联想。但它是向希望自行构建人工智能的企业客户提供现代数据中心“大脑”的领导者。

Dell has plenty of competitors selling big, powerful computers, including Super Micro, HPE and Lenovo. But it’s the leader in providing the brains of modern data centers to enterprise customers who want to build their own AI.

戴尔表示,该公司用了八个季度才积累了3200名使用其服务器构建AI数据中心的客户,其中包括埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX。在过去的三个季度里,它又增加了3300名客户。

Dell said it took the company eight quarters to amass 3,200 customers building AI data centers with its servers, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX. In the last three quarters, it added 3,300 more.

我们交谈两天后,市场导致该公司股价下跌超过10%。其余同行——芯片制造商、新云服务提供商和科技巨头——也同样受挫。

Two days after we talked, the market sent the company’s stock down by more than 10%. The rest of its cohort—chip manufacturers, neoclouds and tech giants alike—also lost ground.

1997年,戴尔在纽约市出席一场会议。Dell attending a conference in New York City in 1997.

如果这种抛售持续下去且客户撤退,戴尔的即时库存策略使该公司在某种程度上成为衡量AI基础设施繁荣健康状况的晴雨表。收入下降可能几乎立即显现。

If that selloff continues and customers pull back, Dell’s just-in-time inventory strategy makes the company something of a bellwether of the health of the rest of the AI-infrastructure boom. Lower revenue could show up almost immediately.

目前,戴尔表示他的公司运营状况良好。其拥有950亿美元的AI服务器机架后续订单——可以将其视为AI超级计算机,每台重达3000磅,耗电量相当于100个或更多典型美国家庭的用电量。戴尔表示,真正的瓶颈仍在于获取足够的内存芯片以交付所有这些服务器。基于戴尔目前的观察,明年“情况只会变得更糟”。值得注意的是,少数几位在互联网泡沫破裂期间也担任高管的CEO之一——康宁的温德尔·威克斯——采取了与戴尔类似的策略。

For now, Dell says his company is doing fine. It has $95 billion in back-orders for the powerful racks of AI servers—think of them as AI supercomputers, each weighing 3,000 pounds and drawing as much power as 100 or more typical U.S. households. The real bottleneck remains getting enough memory chips to deliver all those servers, says Dell. Next year, based on what Dell currently sees, “It’s gonna get worse.”It’s telling that one of the few other CEOs who was also an executive during the dot-com bust has adopted a similar strategy to Dell: Corning’s Wendell Weeks.

康宁在互联网时代实现了收入和股价的增长,随后随着光纤建设的放缓而崩盘,但该公司已与英伟达、亚马逊和Meta Platforms签署协议,由这些公司帮助融资其光纤制造产能的扩张。

The company, which saw its revenue and stock price boom during the dot-com era, and then collapse along with the fiber build-out, has signed deals with Nvidia, Amazon and Meta Platforms in which those companies help finance the expanded manufacturing capacity for its fiber optics.

康宁没有负现金转换周期。当你从沙子等原材料制造产品时,这几乎是不可能的。但其做法意味着,如果AI繁荣破灭,其合作伙伴无法轻易撤离康宁不得不建设或扩建的工厂。

Corning doesn’t have a negative cash-conversion cycle. When you make things from raw materials like sand, that’s almost impossible. But its approach does mean that if the AI boom goes bust, its partners can’t just walk away from the factories Corning had to build or expand.

9月,戴尔与妻子苏珊·戴尔在华盛顿特区。(卡罗琳·卡斯特/美联社)Dell and his wife, Susan Dell, in Washington, D.C., in September. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

观察戴尔所享有的模式,有助于推演潜在崩溃的走向。如果事情不如计划,人工智能供应链中的每家公司会发生什么?如果到2032年,为证明当前投资合理所需的3.5万亿美元消费者和企业支出没有实现,又会怎样?

Looking at models like the one Dell enjoys provides a useful way to game out a potential collapse. What might happen to each company in the AI supply chain if things don’t go to plan? What if the $3.5 trillion in consumer and business spending on AI that will be required by 2032 to justify current investment doesn’t materialize?

戴尔是目前仍在任的财富500强公司中任职时间最长的首席执行官,也是地球上最富有的人之一。在人工智能热潮中迄今取得的连胜,使他成为无处不在的人物。

The longest-serving CEO of any Fortune 500 company to still be at it, and one of the wealthiest people on earth, Dell’s winning streak in the AI boom thus far has made him a ubiquitous figure.

他收到了英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋签名的人工智能服务器,并在X上获得马斯克的致谢,因为他曾戴着安全帽出现在SpaceX数据中心建设现场。他最近去白宫,与微软首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉、谷歌联合创始人谢尔盖·布林等人一起,从特朗普总统手中接受了一枚奖章。

He’s received a signed AI server from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and a shout-out from Musk on X for appearing in a hard hat at a SpaceX data-center construction site. He recently went to the White House to receive a medal from President Trump, alongside Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Google co-founder Sergey Brin and others.

戴尔告诉我,他之所以对未来感到乐观,尽管最近出现了市场抛售和内存问题,其中一个原因是,他的公司能够快速扩大或缩小生产规模,而不会突然被大量毫无价值的库存拖累。

His company’s ability to rapidly scale production up or down, without being left holding suddenly worthless inventory, is just one of the reasons Dell told me he feels optimistic about the future despite the recent market selloff and memory woes.

他告诉我,另一个原因则更具哲学意味。他和妻子最近捐赠了62.5亿美元,为2500万名儿童设立特朗普账户,并表示他计划在有生之年捐出几乎全部财富。“我是说,你不能把它带走。”

The other, he told me during his visit to The Wall Street Journal, was more philosophical. He and his wife recently donated $6.25 billion to fund Trump accounts for 25 million children, and he said he plans to give away nearly all of his wealth within his lifetime. “I mean, you can’t take it with you.”

请写信给克里斯托弗·米姆斯,电子邮箱:christopher.mims@wsj.com

Write to Christopher Mims at christopher.mims@wsj.com