澳大利亚总理希望选民不满情绪再次消退，但澳大利亚第一党（One Nation）的持续走高增加了难度CANBERRA – 在我一年半前在悉尼卸任后，重返联邦议会报道联邦政治的首周，我并不感到惊讶地发现总理阿尔巴尼斯再次向党内同事保证，他计划在第四季度通过“乘风破浪”赢得下届选举。
Australia’s prime minister hopes voter discontent will fade once again, but One Nation’s sustained surge adds difficulty CANBERRA – In my first parliamentary sitting week back reporting on federal politics after one and a half years in Sydney, I was unsurprised to find Anthony Albanese once again reassuring caucus colleagues that he plans to win the next election by “kicking with the wind” in the fourth quarter.
他早在2021年反对党时期就曾使用过这句话，当时斯科特·摩里森因在新冠疫情期间的领导作用而受到赞誉，而工党同事担心阿尔巴尼斯此前一贯主张两党合作，可能无法赢得下届选举。阿尔巴尼斯当时预测正确，并在2022年赢得了微型多数政府。
It’s a line he trotted out as opposition leader in 2021, when Scott Morrison received credit for the way he led Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic and Labor colleagues were concerned that Albanese, who had offered bipartisanship throughout, may not win the next election. Albanese was right, and delivered a small majority government in 2022.
在首任总理任期中，阿尔巴尼斯再次向同事保证，无论三分之二时间点的比分如何，赢得胜利的关键是在第四季度“乘风破浪”。2025年早些时候，唐纳德·特朗普重新进入白宫后，彼得·杜顿（Peter Dutton）的选情出现下滑，使阿尔巴尼斯获得了94个众议院席位。
In his first term as prime minister, Albanese once again reassured colleagues that, whatever the score at three-quarter time, the key to winning is to kick with the wind in the fourth quarter. The collapse of Peter Dutton’s vote in early 2025 after Donald Trump re-entered the White House delivered Albanese 94 lower house seats.
从阿尔巴尼斯的视角来看，前三个季度的比分或看似的动量变化可能是噪音，只有最终决定性阶段——选民做出决定或大部分目标达成（尤其是如果你是布里斯班狮子队）才代表信号。
From Albo’s vantage point the score in the first three-quarters or apparent swings of momentum against you may be noise, and only the final decisive stretch when voters make up their minds or when most of the goals are scored (especially if you’re the Brisbane Lions) represents the signal.