这是一场爆裂的经济：科技繁荣推动强劲增长，失业率低，通胀升高，美联储通过加息试图降温。
It was an economy bursting at the seams: robust growth powered by a tech boom, low unemployment, elevated inflation and Fed rate hikes to try to cool things down. The big picture:
全景回顾： 2000年的情况正是如此，这让人不禁想起2026年的状况。
That was the situation in the year 2000, and it reminds us a great deal of the conditions in 2026.
- 然而令人担忧的是：当时，就像现在一样，早期预警信号表明，推动繁荣的科技繁荣可能不会永远持续下去。
• The worrying part, however, is this: Then, as now, there were early warning signs that the technological boom powering the good times may not last forever.
- 事实上，2000年科技行业出现的裂痕后来蔓延，导致2001年出现更广泛的熊市和温和衰退。
• And indeed, the cracks that appeared in the tech sector in 2000 would spill over into a broader bear market and mild recession in 2001.
- 我们并不是在预测这一次也会如此。历史只会押韡，而不会重演。但这一历史事件值得我们在思考2027年及以后可能出现的各种情形时予以权衡——尤其是本周，因为资助AI建设的债务市场出现了动荡。
• We're not predicting that this time. History only rhymes; it doesn't repeat. But it is a historical episode worth weighing when thinking about the range of possibilities for how things may go in 2027 and beyond — particularly this week, as the debt markets funding the AI build-out have wobbled.
历史回放：虽然2001年对美国经济来说是艰难的一年——全面的科技泡沫破裂因9·11恐怖袭击而雪上加霜——但前一年几乎在各项指标上都表现不错。
Flashback: While 2001 was a nasty year for the U.S. economy — a full-fledged tech bust exacerbated by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks — the year before was pretty great by nearly every measure.
- 2000年4月，失业率降至多年低点3.8%，全年最终收于仅3.9%。
• The unemployment rate reached a multi-decade low of 3.8% in April 2000 and closed the year at a mere 3.9%.
- 全年GDP增长4.1%，增长动力来自惊人的生产率提升。
• GDP rose 4.1% for the full year, powered by stunning rates of productivity growth.
- 然而，这期间也伴随着高通胀，特别是能源成本飙升推动的通胀。全年消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨了3.4%。
• It coincided, however, with high inflation, driven particularly by surging energy costs. The Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% over the course of the year.
细节放大：在此背景下，由阿兰·格林斯潘领导的美联储感到有必要采取行动降温，以免通胀变得更加根深蒂固。当年央行共三次加息，其中包括5月份一次超大幅度的半个百分点加息。
Zoom in: Against that backdrop, the Alan Greenspan-led Fed felt compelled to try to cool things down, lest that inflation become more entrenched. The central bank increased rates three times that year, including a super-sized half-point in May.
- 但正是这里，过去与今天的相似之处变得更加有趣：格林斯潘为加息所辩护的理由，几乎可以直接搬用今天美联储官员谈论AI繁荣时的表述——如果今天的央行官员也像他那样喜欢绕弯子的话。
• But here's where the parallels to today get even more interesting: Greenspan's justification for rate hikes could be lifted from today's Fedspeak about the AI boom — or would be if today's central bankers shared his penchant for circumlocution. What they're saying:
他们是这样说的：格林斯潘在2000年2月对国会表示：“推动美国经济实现竞争卓越的深层有益力量也在酿造一套失衡，若不加以遏制，将威胁我们持续的繁荣。”
The "profoundly beneficial forces driving the American economy to competitive excellence are also engendering a set of imbalances that, unless contained, threaten our continuing prosperity," Greenspan told Congress in February 2000.
- “问题在于，生产率的提升往往会导致总需求的增长幅度甚至超过潜在总供给的增长幅度，”他说。
• "The problem is that the pickup in productivity tends to create even greater increases in aggregate demand than in potential aggregate supply," he said.
- “这主要是因为结构性生产率增长的提升伴随着对长期企业收益的更高预期。”
• "This occurs principally because a rise in structural productivity growth has its counterpart in higher expectations for long-term corporate earnings."
- “反过来，这不仅刺激了企业投资，还推高了股价以及家庭持有资产的市场价值，从而创造了额外的购买力，而目前尚未有相应的商品或服务被生产出来以匹配这种购买力。”
• "This, in turn, not only spurs business investment but also increases stock prices and the market value of assets held by households, creating additional purchasing power for which no additional goods or services have yet been produced."
言之有物：他当时谈论的是由互联网及当时相关信息技术创新驱动的生产率繁荣，但这一观察对当今的人工智能繁荣同样适用。
Between the lines: He was talking about the productivity boom driven by the internet and related IT innovations of that era, but it is very much applicable to the AI boom today.
- 是的，人工智能驱动的生产率提升未来可能提升经济的供给潜力，带来对应的非通胀性增长和更高收入。
• Yes, AI-fueled productivity could create a boost to the economy's supply potential in the future, with corresponding noninflationary growth and higher incomes.
- 但那是未来的事情。目前，这种潜力正在推动资产价格飙升以及对建设所需投入品的需求激增，从而推高通胀。
• But that's in the future. Right now, that potential is causing surging asset prices and rising demand for inputs to the build-out, pushing inflation higher.
现实检验：股市在2000年3月达到峰值。到2001年，一场全面的科技股暴跌正在进行，因为当时在光纤电缆及其他互联网基础设施上的大量投资超前于时代。
Reality check: The stock market peaked in March 2000. By 2001, an all-out tech rout was underway, as much of the investment in fiber-optic cable and other internet infrastructure was ahead of its time.
- 这反过来改变了美联储的局面：2000年看来似乎因财富效应和投资繁荣而过热的经济，实际上被拖了下去。
• That reversed the playing field for the Fed, as the wealth effects and an investment boom that appeared to be overheating the economy in 2000 instead dragged it down.
- 美联储于2001年1月3日出人意料地降息半个百分点，并且最终在2001年共降息11次（！）。
• The Fed enacted a surprise half-point rate cut on Jan. 3, 2001, and would ultimately cut rates 11 times (!) in 2001. Yes, but:
但也有例外：有趣的是，尽管科技泡沫破裂打击了美国人的财富、就业前景和资本支出，但世纪初的生产率提升在整个衰退期间以及随后的无就业复苏过程中一直持续。
Interestingly, while the tech bust hammered Americans' wealth, employment prospects and capital spending, the turn-of-the-century productivity gains continued throughout that recession and the ensuing jobless recovery. The bottom line:
结论：即使人工智能热潮推动了其支持者所预期的那种长期生产率激增，前路仍可能充满坎坷 — — 政策制定者最好研究26年前的类似情况。
Even if the AI boom drives the kinds of long-term productivity surges its proponents anticipate, there is a risk of a bumpy path ahead — and policymakers would do well to study the parallels from 26 years ago.