全球最大铁矿石生产商淡水河谷公司（Vale SA）首席执行官古斯塔沃·皮门塔（Gustavo Pimenta）估计，中东冲突引发的能源和运输成本激增，正使全球海运市场约10%的供应变得不具盈利能力。
The head of top iron ore producer Vale SA estimates that a surge in energy and freight costs triggered by conflict in the Middle East is making about 10% of supply in the global seaborne market unprofitable.
“价格今天应该会略高一些，”皮门塔在接受彭博电视台主持人弗朗辛·拉克夸（Francine Lacqua）采访时表示。“这不是因为供需关系，而是因为运费的影响；燃料价格一直居高不下。”本周，新加坡铁矿石期货价格首次跌破每吨90美元，为两年来首次，且因中国需求疲软、全球供应充裕（包括几内亚西芒杜矿等新增来源），2026年迄今下跌约15%。与此同时，战争导致的能源价格飙升增加了淡水河谷等矿企的成本。
“Prices should be today a little higher,” Chief Executive Officer Gustavo Pimenta said in an interview on Bloomberg Television with Francine Lacqua. “Not because of supply and demand, but because of the impact of freight rates; fuel prices have been higher.”Iron ore futures in Singapore this week dipped below $90 a ton for the first time in two years, and are down about 15% in 2026 amid faltering Chinese demand and abundant global supply, including from new sources as Guinea’s Simandou mine. Meanwhile, a war-driven spike in energy prices has increased costs for miners like Vale.
皮门塔表示，随着所谓边际生产商的成本抑制其产能，价格料将回升。目前不具盈利能力的供应量约占总量的10%，相当于约1.6亿吨，其中已有约1500万吨因成本上升而被迫停产。
Prices will likely recover as the costs for so-called marginal producers are discouraging production, Pimenta said. The roughly 10% of supply that’s currently unprofitable amounts to about 160 million tons, and about 15 million tons has already been brought offline due to higher costs, he said.
皮门塔预计，市场将保持平衡，中国及其他关键市场的需求将保持强劲。
Pimenta expects the market to remain balanced and demand from China and other key markets to remain strong.
“在中国，需求继续保持稳固，”他说，并补充称，印度和越南等其他钢铁生产国也存在“大量增长”。
“In China the demand continues to be solid,” he said, adding there’s “a lot of growth” in other steel-producing countries like India and Vietnam.
他还表示，无论本月底巴西大选结果如何，他都对巴西的政策持乐观态度。他称，两位候选人都将支持企业发展，并认为通过简化许可流程等措施加强该行业将带来益处。
The executive is also optimistic about policies in Brazil regardless of the outcome of an election at the end of this month. He said both candidates will be supportive of the business and see the benefit of strengthening the sector via expedited permitting and other measures.
巴西人将于10月25日前往投票站参加总统选举第二轮投票，现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦将面对保守派候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗，后者主张放宽环境规则，并支持私营部门开发自然资源。淡水河谷公司于1997年私有化，但投资者仍对政府通过该公司的黄金股所拥有的影响力持警惕态度，此外还包括涉及矿山许可和关键铁路特许权的政策。
Brazilians will go to the polls on Oct. 25 for a presidential runoff, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative who favors looser environmental rules and the development of natural resources by the private sector. Vale was privatized in 1997, but investors remain wary of the government’s clout through a golden share in the company, as well as policies involving mine permitting and key railway concessions.
皮门塔一直在推动提升矿业投资的措施，包括加快许可流程和增加地质测绘。对巴西保护天然洞穴规则的审查可能释放重大项目，其中包括一座计划中的淡水河谷铁矿山，年产能达5000万吨。
Pimenta has pushed for measures to boost mining investment, including faster permitting and more geological mapping. A review of Brazilian rules protecting natural caves could unlock major projects, including a planned Vale iron ore mine with 50 million tons of annual capacity.