我相信是2013年。在纽约总部附近的四季餐厅，我与一位来自日本的熟人共进了午餐。“日本正在变化，”他告诉我。
It was 2013, I believe. At the Four Seasons, a restaurant near our New York headquarters, I had lunch with an acquaintance visiting from Japan. "Japan is changing," he told me.
我持怀疑态度。人们已经这么说了25年，我想，但其实什么都没真正改变。
I was skeptical. People had been saying that for 25 years, I thought, and nothing had really changed.
黑石集团在1998年退出了日本，当时该国资产价格泡沫破裂导致经济陷入长期通货紧缩和停滞。
Blackstone had withdrawn from Japan in 1998, after the collapse of the nation's asset-price bubble had left the economy mired in a long period of deflation and stagnation.
“不，”他坚持道。“新任首相安倍晋三正在多个方面推进改革。他的思维方式与日本过去所见的任何情况都完全不同。这是全新的思维。相信我，这一次，真的是变革。”第二周，在我们例行的周一会议上，我提到了这次谈话，我们开始分析日本的情况。我们得出结论：日本正在重新回到现实世界。安倍政府正试图通过加强股东权利来重塑企业行为，并通过放松管制来提升国家的竞争力。
"No," he insisted. "The new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is moving on any number of fronts. His way of thinking is entirely different from anything Japan has seen before. New thinking. Trust me, this time, it really is change." The following week, at our regular Monday meeting, I mentioned that conversation and we began analyzing the situation in Japan. We concluded that Japan was coming back into the real world. The Abe government was trying to reshape corporate behavior by strengthening shareholder rights, and to sharpen the nation's competitiveness through deregulation.
这真的在发生吗？就在日本？我内心仍有部分不确定。但答案日益明显：是的。
Was this really happening? In Japan, of all places? Part of me remained unconvinced. But the answer, increasingly, was yes.
甚至从日本抵达的人们的面容似乎也变了。那些曾对国家前景感到绝望的人，如今似乎因复苏的可能性而几乎被点燃。正是日本人自己决定他们的国家必须改变——并且他们终于感受到这种改变真的到来了。
Even the faces of the people arriving from Japan seemed changed. Those who had once been despondent about the country's prospects now seemed almost electrified by the possibility of renewal. It was the Japanese themselves who had decided that their country had to change -- and who sensed that it finally had.
我第一次见到安倍是在2017年9月，当时他在访问纽约期间举办了一场早餐会。他邀请了一些美国商界的领军人物。他显然自豪地谈到了“安倍经济学”的成果——这是他为摆脱日本长期通货紧缩的困境、恢复经济信心而推出的计划。
I first met Abe in September 2017 at a breakfast he hosted while visiting New York. He had invited a group of leading figures from American business. He spoke with evident pride about the results of Abenomics, his program for pulling Japan out of its long deflationary torpor and restoring confidence in the economy.
我提到我也在关注即将举行的2020年东京奥运会的经济影响。当我抱怨自己想去日本观赛却订不到酒店时，安倍反驳我说：“既然如此，你为什么不在日本开一家自己的酒店？”全场哄堂大笑。
I mentioned that I was also watching the economic effects of the upcoming 2020 Tokyo Olympics. When I complained that I would like to visit Japan for the games but could not get a hotel room, Abe shot back, "Well, in that case, why don't you start your own hotel business in Japan?" The room erupted.
从那之后，我们养成了有机会就见面的习惯。他异常机敏且聪明，与我之前认识的许多日本政客和企业高管不同，他说话直率得令人印象深刻。
From that point on, we made a habit of meeting whenever the chance arose. He was extraordinarily alert and intelligent, and, unlike many Japanese politicians and executives I had known, he spoke with striking directness.
正是由于安倍的改革，我们与日本公司的对话相比十年前几乎难以认出。感觉就像一场革命。
As a result of Abe's reforms, our conversations with Japanese companies became almost unrecognizable compared with a decade earlier. It felt like a revolution.
日本公司开始理所当然地像我们这样的外国企业开展业务。他们不再自动抵制剥离前景不明朗业务的想法。而在过去的日本，这样的对话几乎是不可想象的。
Japanese companies began doing business with foreign firms such as ours as a matter of course. They no longer automatically resisted the idea of unloading investments in businesses with little future. These were the kinds of conversations which, in the old Japan, would have been almost unthinkable.
目前最显著的变化仍然集中在日本的旗舰企业中。但基础正在扩大。黑石已重返日本，我们在那里的业务正在房地产、企业投资、面向个人的投资产品以及其他领域实实在在地扩张。
The most dramatic change remains concentrated, for now, among Japan's flagship corporations. But the base is broadening. Blackstone has returned to Japan and our business there is expanding in real estate, in corporate investments, in investment products for individuals and in other areas.
2021年，我所参与的美国良心呼吁基金会向安倍颁发了世界政治家奖。他当之无愧。他是一位具有全球 stature 的政治领袖，有勇气推动社会变革和大胆的新政策。
In 2021, the Appeal of Conscience Foundation, an American organization with which I am involved, presented Abe with its World Statesman Award. He deserved it. He was a political leader of global stature and one with the courage to pursue social change and bold new policies.
于是，第二年，当安倍被枪击身亡时，我陷入了深深的悲痛。我感到这不仅是日本的悲剧，更是世界的损失。
And so, the following year, when Abe was shot dead, I sank into a deep gloom. I felt it not merely as a Japanese tragedy, but as a loss to the world.
在美国，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统和他的弟弟、参议员罗伯特·F·肯尼迪都遇刺身亡。罗纳德·里根和唐纳德·特朗普总统也都曾遭枪击。但日本向来是一个政治暴力几乎不可想象的国家。为什么会在那里发生？为什么是安倍？
In the United States, President John F. Kennedy and his younger brother, Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, were both assassinated. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump were both shot. But Japan was a country where such political violence seemed almost unimaginable. Why there? Why Abe?
安倍是创新的象征。一个认真致力于改变事物的人有时会吸引那些思想不正常的人——那些害怕改变、怨恨权力或无法容忍领袖信念力量的人。他的生命以这种深深的悲伤方式结束。
Abe was a symbol of innovation. A person who sets out in earnest to change things sometimes attracts the unhinged -- those who fear change, resent power, or cannot abide the force of a leader's conviction. It was a profoundly sad way for a life to end.
自2013年安倍开始致力于改变国家以来，日本经济一直在走向更好的道路。当一个国家获得更具前瞻性的集体心理时，其动势可以持续五年，甚至十年。
Since 2013, when Abe set about changing the country, the Japanese economy has been moving on a far better path. When a nation acquires a more forward-looking collective psychology, its momentum can last five years, even 10.
当著名的美国投资者沃伦·巴菲特因宣布他将不会在50年内出售他在日本贸易公司的股份而引起轰动时，这就是他一贯的直率方式，表明日本的经济动势是真实存在的——我同意他的看法。然而，经验告诉我，动势从来不是永久的。没有什么是永久的。
When the renowned American investor Warren Buffett caused a stir by declaring that he would not sell his shares in Japanese trading houses for 50 years, that was his characteristically plainspoken way of saying that Japan's economic momentum was real -- and I agree with him. Yet experience has taught me that momentum is never permanent. Nothing is.
当政府的思维发生剧烈变化时，人们有充分理由重新审视和重新思考自己的投资，尤其是当政策转向敌对的时候。
When a government's thinking changes sharply, one has good reason to reexamine and rethink one's investments, especially when policy turns hostile.
为了继续吸引资本，日本别无真正的选择，只能继续安倍开始的改革，将家庭和企业中沉睡的巨额资金引向生产性用途，并让国家继续前进。
For Japan to keep drawing in capital, it has no real alternative but to continue the reforms Abe began, to channel the vast sums of cash lying dormant in households and corporations toward productive ends, and to keep the country moving forward.
斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼是黑石集团的联合创始人、董事长兼首席执行官。
Stephen Schwarzman is co-founder, chairman and CEO of Blackstone.