Anthropic员工认为AI将使他们的劳动变得过时。大多数美国工人并不这样看待他们的工作。这家AI公司周五发布的研究将对美国成年人的调查与对1,334名Anthropic员工的内部民意测验进行了比较。大多数Anthropic员工表示，到2030年，AI将处理他们工作的至少80%，而只有大约5%的美国工人持有同样的看法。题为《AI期望差距》的研究显示，这家AI初创公司员工的感受与其他美国成年人的感受之间存在鸿沟。
Anthropic employees believe that AI will make their labor obsolete. Most US workers don't see their jobs that way at all. The AI company published research on Friday that compares surveys with US adults against an internal poll of 1,334 Anthropic employees. Most of the Anthropic staffers said AI will handle at least 80% of their jobs by 2030, while only about 5% of the US workers felt the same. The research, titled "The AI expectations gap," shows the chasm between how the employees at the AI startup feel and how other American adults feel.
Anthropic员工对AI能力的进步、已经节省了多少时间以及经济将以多快的速度增长持更乐观的态度。Anthropic员工的中位数认为，到2030年底，他们预计AI将处理构建新AI模型工作的95%。Anthropic首席经济学家Peter McCrory在X上写道，这些观点可能有助于外界为更强大的AI系统做好准备。“我们发布这项研究是因为Anthropic在AI采用方面大约领先于经济一年半，因此Anthropic发生的事情可能成为更广阔世界的领先指标，”他说。
Anthropic workers are far more optimistic about the progress of AI capabilities, how much it's already saving time, and how fast the economy will grow. The median Anthropic employee said that by the end of 2030, they expect AI to handle 95% of the work of building a new AI model. Peter McCrory, Anthropic's chief economist, wrote on X that the views might help outsiders prepare for more capable AI systems. "We're publishing this research because Anthropic runs roughly a year and a half ahead of the economy on AI adoption, so what happens at Anthropic could be a leading indicator for the broader world," he said.
Anthropic的调查考察了工人目前如何使用AI以及他们认为AI将如何改变。“美国成年人和Anthropic员工在很大程度上同意AI今天能做什么，”研究人员写道。“然而，他们对AI改进的速度、使用范围以及通过节省时间衡量的生产率收益的大小存在分歧。”存在几种可能的解释来解释这些差异。Anthropic员工拥有更大的工具预算，并且经常能够获得未发布的模型。
Anthropic's surveys examined how workers already use AI and how they think it will change. "US adults and Anthropic staff largely agree about what AI can do today," the researchers wrote. "However, they disagree about how quickly it will improve, how widely it will be used, and how large the productivity gains measured by time saved will be." There are a few possible explanations for the discrepancies. Anthropic employees have larger budgets for the tools and often get access to unreleased models.
平均而言，美国工人更可能从事体力劳动或服务业工作。研究人员发现，与Anthropic员工、科技工作者以及商业和金融领域的受访者相比，从事体力劳动、生产和运输行业的工人认为到2030年AI将处理他们工作的比例最低。
US workers, on average, are more likely to work with their hands or in a service industry. The researchers found that workers in manual trades, production, and transport thought AI would handle the least of their work by 2030, compared with Anthropic staffers, tech workers, and respondents in business and finance.
大多数接受调查的Anthropic员工表示，他们预计2030年的失业率将超过12%。而大多数美国工人认为失业率将在8%左右或以下。目前失业率为4.2%。迄今为止，研究人员对AI是否会扰乱就业市场的发现呈现出混合态势——耶鲁大学的一支团队最近发现，AI主要改变了工作岗位，并且与失业率的变化“无关”。Anthropic的研究人员还整理了调查回复，以估算对经济增长的预测。
Most Anthropic employees surveyed said that they expect the unemployment rate to top 12% in 2030. The majority of the US workers thought it would hover around or under 8%. It's currently 4.2%. So far, researchers have found mixed evidence on AI disrupting the job market — a Yale team recently found it had mainly changed jobs, and had "no connection" to changes in unemployment. The Anthropic researchers also compiled survey responses to estimate predictions on economic growth.
根据他们的回答，美国成年人的中位数预测值认为2030年的GDP增长率为5.4%，而Anthropic员工的预测值则为17.1%。该国去年的GDP增长了2.2%。Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊已成为业界最受关注的关于劳动力动荡的声音之一。他在2025年3月表示，他预计AI将在6个月内编写90%的代码，并在一年内编写“几乎所有的代码”。
Based on their answers, the median US adult's guess for GDP growth in 2030 was 5.4%, compared with 17.1% among Anthropic employees. The country's GDP grew by 2.2% last year. Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, has become one of the industry's most closely watched voices on labor upheaval. In March of 2025, he said he expected AI to write 90% of code within 6 months, and "essentially all of the code" within the year.
他在当年5月又一次成为新闻焦点，告诉Axios，AI可能在五年内消除一半的初级白领岗位，并将失业率推升至10%或20%。阿莫代伊在后来的一篇文章中进一步阐述了这一观点，写道他预计AI将不同于以往的技术变革。他表示，他预计劳动力将出现“前所未有”的短期冲击，而经济将实现剧烈增长。他写道：“AI不是特定人类工作的替代品，而是对人类的一般劳动替代品。”
He made more headlines that May, telling Axios that AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years and lift unemployment to 10% or 20%. Amodei expanded on that claim in a later essay, writing that he expects AI to be different from prior technological changes. He wrote that he expects an "unprecedented" short-term shock to labor, and that the economy will grow dramatically. "AI isn't a substitute for specific human jobs but rather a general labor substitute for humans," he wrote.