澳大利亚的主流政党正被警告不要采取诸如移民上限之类的民粹主义政策来应对选民对生活成本的不满。
Australia's mainstream political parties are being warned not to adopt populist policies such as migration caps to address voters' grievances over the cost of living.
相反，澳大利亚任职时间最长的财政部长马蒂亚斯·科曼正敦促政客们通过提高生产力来提供住房、实际工资增长和降低能源成本。
Instead, Australia's longest-serving finance minister, Mathias Cormann is urging politicians to deliver housing, real wage growth and lower energy costs by boosting productivity.
作为经济合作与发展组织（OECD）秘书长的科曼将在周六晚上向独立研究中心发表演讲，宣传生产力是长期可靠降低生活成本的唯一途径。
Now the secretary general for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Cormann will deliver an address to the Centre for Independent Studies on Saturday night spruiking productivity as the only way to reliably lower the cost of living over the long term.
尽管他的演讲中没有直接点名，但以反移民平台为主要立场的“一国”党自2025年联邦选举以来人气飙升，根据最新的《卫报》必要民意调查，其初选票已达25%，高于联盟党的22%。
Though not directly named in his address, One Nation – which largely runs on an anti-immigration platform – has surged in popularity since the 2025 federal election, with its primary vote reaching 25% according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, rising above the Coalition's 22%.
虽然民粹主义政党可能因谈论能源账单上涨、住房拥有率下降和实际收入倒退等真实诉求而获得关注，但科曼预计将警告工党和联盟党不要效仿。
While populist parties may have gained traction by speaking to real grievances about rising energy bills, home ownership and real incomes going backwards, Cormann is expected to warn Labor and the Coalition not to follow suit.
他在演讲中将表示：“主流政党若通过采纳民粹主义的经济政策来应对民粹主义浪潮，无法挽回选民。他们会输两次：一次是输给原版，因为选民始终更倾向于原版而非复制品；另一次是输给中间派，因为中间派别无他往。”
"Mainstream parties that respond to a populist surge by adopting its economics do not recover their voters. They lose twice: once to the original, which the electorate will always prefer to the copy, and once to the centre, which has nowhere else to go," he will say in his address.
“教训始终如一：提供住房、降低能源成本、实现实际工资增长和可信的预算，民粹主义浪潮就会退去。
"The lesson is consistent: deliver homes, lower energy costs, real wage growth and a credible budget, and the populist tide recedes.
“模仿民粹主义者，只会证明他们一直是对的。击败民粹主义的方法是解决它所依赖的问题。”
"Mimic the populists, and you simply confirm that they were right all along. The way to defeat populism is to solve the problems it feeds on." Cormann will point to "arbitrary migration caps" imposed regardless of their effect on business, hospitals, aged care or universities.
科曼将指出，“无论对企业、医院、养老护理或大学产生何种影响，任意设定的移民上限”都是错误的做法。
He will acknowledge more Australians now than any time in the past 20 years say the migration intake is too high and may support such policies, with many attributing their concerns to housing.
他将承认，如今比过去20年中的任何时候都有更多的澳大利亚人认为移民接收量过高，并且可能支持此类政策，许多人将他们的担忧归因于住房问题。
But the answer is to address housing supply, infrastructure, services and the composition of the migration intake, he will say.
但解决办法是应对住房供应、基础设施、服务以及移民接收量的结构，他将这样表示。
According to OECD research across Australia's regions, in places where more migrants arrived, employment among Australian-born workers grew faster, not slower, with no measurable effect on their wages.
根据经合组织对澳大利亚各地区的研究，在移民人数更多的地区，澳大利亚出生工人的就业增长更快，而非更慢，且对其工资没有可测量的影响。
Without migration, Australia's working-age population would decrease as the number of older people grows.
如果没有移民，随着老年人口数量的增加，澳大利亚的劳动年龄人口将会减少。
"An ageing country that chooses to shrink its working-age population while promising to spend more on health, care and defence has not developed a plan – it has put forward a contradiction," Cormann will say.
“一个选择在承诺在医疗、护理和国防上增加支出的同时缩小劳动年龄人口的老龄化国家，尚未制定计划——它提出了一个矛盾，”科尔曼将这样表示。
Tariffs, which have been imposed by US president Donald Trump and proposed by One Nation would also fail to address the cost of living and could instead raise costs for farmers, miners and builders, Cormann will say.
他还表示，美国总统特朗普所征收的关税以及一民族党所提出的关税也无法解决生活成本问题，反而可能增加农民、矿工和建筑商的成本。他认为，澳大利亚只能通过提高生产力来摆脱这一困境。
He believes Australia can only grow its way out of the issue through productivity.
“降低生活成本没有捷径。没有通过关税、上限和国有银行的民粹主义捷径，”他将这样表示。
"There is no shortcut to a lower cost of living. There is no populist shortcut, through tariffs and caps and state banks," he will say.
“只有长久之路：一个生产更多、竞争更激烈、增长速度快于其成本的经济……任何向你承诺更快途径的人，实际上是在向你提供一个更贫穷的国家。”
"There is only the long way round: an economy that produces more, competes harder and grows faster than its costs … anyone offering you a quicker route is offering you a poorer country."