
曼彻斯特市长安迪·伯纳姆试图将重心放在英国国内政策、减少对全球事务的关注,以此与基尔·斯塔默的首相任期划清界限,但在唐纳德·特朗普的世界里,这几乎是不可能的。
Minister Andy Burnham’s bid to break from Keir Starmer’s premiership by focusing more on UK domestic policy and less on global events is proving near impossible in Donald Trump’s world.
美国总统在俄乌战争中的最新举措——与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京达成柴油交易,并施压基辅停止对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击——让外交政策在伯纳姆上任仅三个月后就被推到了议程首位。
The US president’s latest gambit in the Russia-Ukraine war — striking a diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin and pressuring Kyiv to stop drone strikes on Russian oil refineries — has pushed foreign policy to the top of Burnham’s agenda just three months into the job.
为了向弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示支持,这位首相本周在伦敦接待了乌克兰总统,并公开承诺帮助他在美国政府与泽连斯基之间“修复桥梁”。然而,私下里,英国官员描述了他们眼中更为阴暗的现实:特朗普在欧洲安全这一根本问题上,根本不在英国一边。
In a show of support to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the premier hosted Ukraine’s president in London this week and publicly vowed to help “repair bridges” between him and the US administration. Privately, however, UK officials described their view of a darker reality: Trump is simply not on their side on the fundamental issue of European security.
一位高级官员表示,这使得美英“特殊关系”跌至近来最低点,给伯纳姆带来了将定义其首相任期的挑战。这位官员和其他为本故事提供信息的人一样,因讨论敏感外交事务而获准匿名。该官员表示,任何首相,即使是战时领袖温斯顿·丘吉尔,面对这种情况也会感到困难,而伯纳姆相比之下只是个新手。
That’s brought the “special relationship” between the US and UK to its lowest point in recent memory, leaving Burnham with a challenge that will define his premiership, according to one senior official, who like others for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. Any premier, even wartime leader Winston Churchill, would find the circumstances difficult and Burnham is a novice by comparison, the official said.

伯纳姆上个月在纽约与特朗普的首次会面就是一个例证。据熟悉此事的英国官员透露,特朗普在镜头前彬彬有礼,称赞其对手是“天生的商人”,但在闭门会谈中,他因英国不支持其对伊朗的战争而大发雷霆,谈话变得更加困难。
Burnham’s first meeting with Trump in New York last month was a case in point. While the president was polite in front of the cameras, praising his counterpart as a “natural business person,” behind-closed-doors conversations were more difficult as he railed against Britain’s lack of support for his war in Iran, according to UK officials familiar with the matter.
另一个例子是最近针对一处被美军使用的英国空军基地的所谓阴谋。特朗普称,美英联合情报行动正在跟踪嫌疑人,而报道引述白宫附近官员的话称,威胁与一场壮观的无人机袭击计划有关。英国官员表示,这两种说法都不符合实际。
Another example was the recent alleged plot targeting a British airbase used by the US. Trump said there was a joint US-UK intelligence operation tailing the suspects, while reports cited officials close to the White House as suggesting the threat related to plans for a spectacular drone attack. Neither reflected reality, British officials said.
白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份电子邮件声明中表示:“特朗普总统在联合国与伯纳姆总理举行了良好会晤,我们的国家将继续在共同感兴趣的领域开展合作。”
“President Trump had a good meeting with Prime Minister Burnham at the United Nations, and our countries will continue working together on areas of mutual interest,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in an emailed statement.
凯利表示,特朗普“比任何人都做得更多,以结束俄乌战争”,并且通过向北约盟国出售美国制造的武器,特朗普“正在为美国工业创造数十亿美元的收入,同时让欧洲承担起自身防御的主要责任。”特朗普最近对俄政策的转折,留下了伯纳姆政府正努力应对的问题——如何应对总统,并确保乌克兰不会被迫接受战争中的不公正结果。
Kelly said Trump “has done more than anyone to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to a close” and that by selling American-made arms to NATO allies, Trump is “generating billions of dollars for U.S. industries while getting Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defense.”Trump’s latest pivot toward Russia leaves questions Burnham’s government is struggling to answer, about how to handle the president and ensure Ukraine isn’t pressured into accepting an unjust outcome to the war.
虽然伯纳姆一直试图将焦点放在选民最关心的议题上,如移民和生活成本,但民调机构萨万塔的政治总监克里斯·霍普金斯表示,在国际舞台上的失误可能会损害他的人气。
While Burnham has sought to focus on the issues voters say they care about the most, such as immigration and the cost of living, failure on the international stage could harm his popularity, according to Chris Hopkins, political director at pollster Savanta.
他对彭博社表示:“公众倾向于将外交事务和外交关系视为工作的基本组成部分,因此表现出强硬和具有国家气质是最低的期望。”因此,在全球舞台上表现软弱,即使全球问题通常不会直接影响公众舆论,也可能对公众认知产生灾难性的影响。”这凸显了美英关系的重要性。知情人士透露,伯纳姆上任后决定效仿斯塔默的做法——该做法由英国国家安全顾问乔纳森·鲍威尔倡导,即英国与美国的独特关系意味着,通过安静的外交手段说服特朗普对欧洲采取较少敌对的立场,才是最佳选择。
“The public tend to see foreign affairs and diplomatic relations as a fundamental part of the job, and therefore appearing strong and statesmanlike is the minimum expected,” he told Bloomberg. “Appearing weak on the global stage, therefore, can have a calamitous impact on public perceptions, even when global issues generally do not drive public opinion.”That reinforces the importance of the US relationship. On taking office Burnham decided to follow Starmer’s approach, espoused by the UK’s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, that Britain’s unique relationship with the US means it is best served by pursuing quiet diplomacy to persuade Trump to take less hostile positions toward Europe, people familiar with the matter said.

支持这一策略的人指出,若采取相反的做法,后果将更糟:特朗普并未试图以武力夺取格陵兰,他也没有尝试退出北约或终止对乌克兰的全部军事和情报支持,也没有完全站在普京一边对泽连斯基实施失败。
Advocates of this strategy point to counterfactual scenarios that would have been much worse: Trump did not try to take Greenland by force, he hasn’t tried to leave NATO or end all military and intelligence support for Ukraine, nor has he fully sided with Putin to impose defeat on Zelenskyy.

更为严峻的事实是,正如这些人所言,英国别无可信的替代方案,只能努力让特朗普保持站在自己这边。其安全与美国支持的联系比其他欧洲国家更为紧密,以至于实现完全主权的能力并不现实。在形势较好的时候,这种关系曾帮助英国在国际事务中发挥超出其实力的作用。而现在,正如他们所说,这使英国独露脆弱。
The starker truth is Britain has no credible alternative to trying to keep Trump onside, the people argued. Its security is more inextricably linked to US support than other European countries to the point that achieving fully sovereign capabilities is not realistic. In better times the relationship has helped Britain punch above its weight. Now it leaves it uniquely exposed, they said.
一位官员表示,英国在乌克兰战争之外的关键外交政策目标是确保跨大西洋联盟不致崩溃,因为那样就会实现俄罗斯的总体战略目标。他们还说,随着法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和德国总理弗里德里希·默茨影响力下降,伯恩汉姆的角色变得更加重要。
The UK’s key foreign policy aim beyond the Ukraine war is ensuring the transatlantic alliance does not collapse because that would realize Russia’s overarching strategic objective, an official said. Burnham’s role is even more important now French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are declining in influence, they said.
然而,随着乌克兰称其本周暂时失去了对埃隆·马斯克拥有的星链(Starlink)系统的完全访问,而特朗普又重新公开批评泽连斯基,很难认为英国的策略正在取得比混合结果更好的成效。
Yet with Ukraine saying it temporarily lost full access to the Elon Musk-owned Starlink system this week and Trump renewing his public criticisms of Zelenskyy, it’s hard to argue the British strategy is having better than mixed results.
官员们报告称的一个困难是,英国领导层在七月的更迭意味着外交关系不得不从零开始重建。截至目前,10号唐宁街未披露伯恩汉姆与特朗普自总统的柴油协议以来有任何电话通话,也没有总理与其他西欧领导人之间的通话记录。官员们还指出,在最近几个月里,乌克兰盟友所谓的“自愿联盟”格局下几乎没有取得进展。英国承诺为乌克兰争取更多防空能力,包括来自美国的支持,目前尚未见到成效。
One difficulty reported by officials is that the change of UK leadership in July means diplomatic relationships have had to be restarted from scratch. Number 10 has detailed no phone calls between Burnham and Trump since the president’s diesel deal, nor any call between the premier and other western European leaders. Officials also noted the lack of progress under the so-called Coalition of the Willing format of Ukraine’s allies in recent months. UK pledges to secure more air defenses for Ukraine, including from the US, have yet to deliver results.
当然,英国目前还不认为情况如此严峻。官员们表示,美国似乎已经恢复了星链(Starlink)服务,英国将继续主张特朗普不应切断乌克兰获取关键美国预警系统的途径,该系统有助于乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的袭击。
To be sure, Britain does not yet see the situation as dire. The US appears to have restored Starlink, officials said, and the UK will continue to argue that Trump should not cut off access to a key US early warning system that helps Ukraine defend against Russian attacks.
官员们还表示,泽连斯基仍然具备在没有美国支持的情况下对俄罗斯炼油厂发动无人机袭击的能力。他们补充说,俄罗斯在军事和经济上都很脆弱且陷入困境,这正是普京如此渴望特朗普对乌克兰施加更大压力的原因。英国正在向基辅运送更多远程“风暴之影”导弹,以便乌克兰能够继续打击俄罗斯境内的军事目标。
Zelenskyy also retains the ability to launch drone attacks on Russian oil refineries without US support, officials said. Russia is militarily and economically weak and desperate, and that is why Putin is so keen for Trump to increase pressure on Ukraine, they added. The UK is sending more long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Kyiv so it can continue to hit military targets inside Russia.

从长远来看,伯纳姆正在关注特朗普之后的世界,并相信欧洲乃至美国可能会出现进步力量的复苏。
Longer-term, Burnham is looking to a post-Trump world and believes there will be a progressive resurgence in Europe and potentially the US.
他在八月于基辅接受彭博社采访时表示:“我们经历了十年的民粹主义,但它并未为人民带来益处。”他说:“我在英国所感知到的变化,可能正是即将在全球范围内出现的变化。”“钟摆必须往回 swing(摆回)。”尽管特朗普正面临中期选举临近带来的国内困境,伯纳姆却被迫与他一起应对乌克兰战争可能进入的决定性阶段。若出现不利结果,这很大程度上不会是他的错,但这种结果可能最终成为他任期内的代名词。
“We’ve had a decade of populism that isn’t working for people,” he told Bloomberg in Kyiv in August. “The change I sense in Britain possibly is a change that’s going to come a bit more around the world,” he said. “The pendulum has to swing back.”While Trump faces his own domestic troubles with the mid-terms looming, Burnham is stuck with him as he tries to navigate a potentially decisive phase of the Ukraine war. An adverse outcome would hardly be his fault but it might end up being the story of his premiership.