乌克兰正面临越来越大的不确定性，即其能否持续对俄作战，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的一系列举动引发了人们对华盛顿作为基辅最重要的军事伙伴的可靠性的新质疑。
Ukraine is facing increasing uncertainty over its ability to sustain the war against Russia as a series of moves by U.S. President Donald Trump has raised fresh questions about Washington's reliability as Kyiv's most important military partner.
特朗普与普京达成协议，旨在缓解对俄罗斯的制裁，以便俄罗斯向全球市场提供柴油，同时限制美国向乌克兰军队共享情报，这使得乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基陷入困境，因为冬季即将到来。
Trump's agreement with Putin to ease sanctions for Russia to provide global markets with diesel, as well as restrictions on U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukrainian forces, has put President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a difficult position as winter looms.
柴油价格上涨——柴油对运输货物和农业生产至关重要——往往会推高整个经济的成本并助长通胀。随着美国中期选举的临近，特朗普面临降低燃油成本的压力。
Higher diesel prices – essential to transporting goods and agricultural production – tend to drive up costs across the wider economy and fuel inflation. With November's U.S. midterm elections approaching, Trump is under pressure to bring fuel costs down.
但专家告诉CNBC，这笔柴油交易只会给俄罗斯带来微乎其微的财务收益，对全球能源价格影响甚微。其更广泛的政治影响可能更为重要，可能会强化克里姆林宫的信念，即它可以在不对乌克兰作出让步的情况下从华盛顿获得让步。
But experts told CNBC that the diesel deal would deliver only a marginal financial benefit to Russia, and not move the needle much on global energy prices. Its wider political implications may be more significant, potentially reinforcing the Kremlin's belief that it can secure concessions from Washington without making compromises over Ukraine.
“俄罗斯的主要收益是政治上的：特朗普的决定缓解了制裁压力，削弱了西方的团结，”NEST中心的高级研究员兼经济学主任谢尔盖·亚历克萨申科对CNBC表示。
"Russia's main gain is political: Trump's decision eases sanctions pressure and undermines Western unity," Sergey Aleksashenko, senior research fellow and head of economics at the NEST Centre, told CNBC.
柴油交易特朗普与普京的协议是让俄罗斯向全球市场供应480万吨柴油，相当于美国国内需求约十天的量，或全球需求约一天的量。专家表示，这对价格影响甚微。
Diesel deal Trump's agreement with Putin was for Russia to supply the global market with 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, the equivalent of about ten days of U.S. domestic demand or about a single day of global demand. Experts say it will do little to affect prices.
“这甚至连边缘都没碰到——它微乎其微，”前国际能源署石油工业和市场部门负责人尼尔·阿特金森周一在CNBC的《欧洲早间财经》节目中告诉CNBC。
"It does not even touch the sides – it is very, very small," Neil Atkinson, former head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.
阿列克萨申科估计，该分阶段协议的初始部分涵盖180万吨柴油，在三个月内可能产生高达12.5亿美元的额外出口收入，相当于该期间俄罗斯商品出口收入的约1%。
Aleksashenko estimated that the initial part of the phased agreement that covers 1.8 million metric tons of diesel could generate up to $1.25 billion in additional export revenue over three months, equivalent to around 1% of Russia's commodity export revenues during that period.
然而，对俄罗斯联邦预算的好处将要小得多，每月不到3000万美元，或低于月度联邦收入的0.07%。
However, the benefit to Russia's federal budget would be substantially smaller, at less than $30 million per month, or under 0.07% of monthly federal revenues.
因此，阿列克萨申科对CNBC表示，该协议不太可能显著增强俄罗斯的战争财政。相反，其对莫斯科的主要好处是政治性的，因为它缓解了制裁压力并削弱了西方团结，而无需普京在乌克兰问题上作出让步。
The deal was therefore unlikely to meaningfully strengthen Russia's war finances, Aleksashenko said. Instead, its main benefit to Moscow is political, because it eased sanctions pressure and undermined Western unity without requiring Putin to make concessions over Ukraine, he told CNBC.
该研究员还认为，进入全球市场的额外俄罗斯柴油不足以在短期内显著降低消费者燃油价格。
The research fellow also argued that the additional Russian diesel entering global markets is not sufficient to produce a noticeable reduction in consumer fuel prices in the short term.
“资助战争目前是普京的首要任务，他甚至愿意削减所有其他支出来增加这笔资金，”阿列克萨申科补充道，并指出俄罗斯2027年的草案预算。
"Funding the war is currently Putin's priority, and he is prepared to increase that funding even if it means cutting all other expenditures," Aleksashenko added, pointing to Russia's draft budget for 2027.
对乌克兰而言的更大问题：“与其鼓励妥协，[柴油]协议很可能强化莫斯科的信念，即持续施压最终将带来更多西方让步，”战略与国际问题研究中心高级研究员玛丽亚·斯涅戈瓦娅对CNBC表示。
The bigger problem for Ukraine "Rather than encouraging compromise, the [diesel] deal likely boosts Moscow's belief that continued pressure will eventually yield further Western concessions," Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC.
周五在布鲁塞尔接受记者采访时，泽连斯基也警告称，柴油协议可能为进一步制裁缓解树立先例，同时强调尽管乌克兰正努力发展替代方案，但其对美国军事技术和情报的依赖仍在继续。
Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Friday, Zelenskyy also warned that the diesel agreement could set a precedent for further sanctions relief, while highlighting Ukraine's continued reliance on U.S. military technology and intelligence despite efforts to develop alternatives.
“制裁将在天然气之后解除，”泽连斯基说。“它们将在其他事项上解除。随后，这将波及银行系统、特定个人和化工行业。”本周早些时候有报道称，SpaceX的星链军事应用星盾在乌克兰受到限制。SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在X平台的一篇帖子中表示，美国政府和总统最终应对该网络的任何限制负责。
"Sanctions will be lifted after gas," Zelenskyy said. "They will be lifted on something else. Then this will come to the banking system, certain individuals, chemical industry." Earlier this week, reports emerged that SpaceX's Starlink military application Starshield has been restricted in Ukraine. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said in a post on X that the U.S. government and president were ultimately responsible for any curbs on the network.
根据路透社引用的三位熟悉情况的官员的报道，限制乌克兰使用星盾的命令来自白宫内部。CNBC已联系白宫寻求置评。
The order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside White House, according to a Reuters report citing three officials familiar with the matter. CNBC has contacted the White House for comment.
其后果在乌克兰被强烈感受到。随着星链的速度限制被降低，乌克兰无法击落一些俄罗斯无人机。本周，乌克兰也没有收到来自伙伴的关于即将到来的弹道导弹的预警，导致平民死亡，乌克兰官员如是说。
The consequences were felt sharply in Ukraine. As Starlink's speed limits were lowered, Ukraine became incapable of shooting down some Russian drones. This week, Ukraine also did not receive advanced warning from partners of incoming ballistic missiles, resulting in civilian deaths, according to Ukrainian officials.
据乌克兰复兴、基础设施和交通部第一副部长谢尔希·德尔恰克称，星链的限制鼓舞了俄罗斯加强对乌克兰的攻击。
According to Serhiy Derkach, Ukraine's first deputy minister for recovery, infrastructure and transport, Starlink restrictions emboldened Russia to intensify attacks on Ukraine.
“由于美国限制了星链在战场上的使用，俄罗斯觉得这是他们试图对乌克兰民用基础设施造成更多痛苦和苦难的时刻，”德尔恰克周五对CNBC表示。俄罗斯当局未对CNBC多次的置评请求作出回应。
"With U.S. limiting the use of Starlinks on the battlefield, Russia feels that this is their moment to try and inflict even more pain and suffering on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure," Derkach told CNBC on Friday. Russian authorities didn't respond to multiple CNBC requests for comment.
政治打击 据斯涅戈瓦亚称，柴油交易对乌克兰和西方联盟构成了政治和道德打击。美国的制裁豁免将持续至2027年4月，这可能促成俄罗斯柴油出口超出最初公布的货运量，从而可能增加莫斯科的经济收益，她警告道。
A political blow The diesel deal was a political and moral blow to Ukraine and the Western coalition, according to Snegovaya. The U.S. sanctions exemption, which runs until April 2027, could facilitate Russian diesel exports beyond the initially announced shipment, potentially increasing Moscow's economic gains, she warned.
“如果[白宫]利用其军事和情报支持作为杠杆来限制乌克兰的打击，其影响可能会变得更为重大，”斯涅戈瓦娅说，并补充称，乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击对莫斯科造成了巨大的经济损失。
"If [the] White House uses its military and intelligence support as leverage to constrain Ukraine's strikes, the implications could become far more significant," Snegovaya said, adding that Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries have inflicted substantial economic costs on Moscow.
她补充说，此举可能对乌克兰削弱俄罗斯战争经济的努力产生更为深远的影响。
Such a move could have far greater consequences for Ukraine's efforts to weaken Russia's war economy, she added.
斯涅戈瓦娅表示，柴油交易进一步削弱了华盛顿在乌克兰及其欧洲盟友眼中作为调解人的可信度，因为看起来是在未获得任何让步的情况下奖励了莫斯科，同时增加了对基辅的压力。
The diesel deal further undermines Washington's credibility as a mediator in the eyes of Ukraine and its European allies, as it appears to reward Moscow without securing concessions while increasing pressure on Kyiv, she said.
斯涅戈瓦娅说，问题在于，在短期内实现欧洲和乌克兰的军事自主极其困难，而欧洲在发展必要能力方面进展缓慢。
The problem, Snegovaya said, is that achieving military autonomy for Europe and Ukraine is extremely difficult in the short term, and Europe has been slow to develop the necessary capabilities.
“战争已经进行了近五年，乌克兰及其欧洲伙伴在关键领域，如情报和导弹防御方面，仍然高度依赖美国。这些依赖关系在特朗普政府剩余的年份里不太可能被克服，”她对CNBC表示。
"Almost five years into the war, Ukraine and its European partners remain heavily dependent on the U.S. in critical areas, like intelligence and missile defense. These dependencies are unlikely to be overcome during the remaining years of the Trump administration," she told CNBC.