编者按：请于今晚美东时间/太平洋时间晚上8点收看CNN纪录片《MAGA会一直幸福下去吗？》（MAGA Ever After?），该片将在安德森·库珀主持的节目《全貌》（The Whole Story with Anderson Cooper）中首播。
在MAGA运动10年的历史中，特朗普总统因对伊朗发动战争而遭遇来自其基本盘的强烈反弹是前所未有的。
EDITOR’S NOTE: Watch the CNN documentary, “ MAGA Ever After? ” premiering tonight at 8 p.m. ET/PT on “The Whole Story with Anderson Cooper.”The backlash President Trump has received from his base over going to war with Iran is unprecedented in the 10-year history of the MAGA movement.
这一点，连同经济、通货膨胀、其政府对爱泼斯坦档案的处理方式，以及特朗普与马克·扎克伯格等科技亿万富翁的密切关系和对他们建设大型人工智能数据中心的支持，正在考验这位总统基本盘的忠诚度。
This, along with the economy, inflation, his administration’s handling of the Epstein files, and Trump’s closeness to tech billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg and support for their building of massive AI data centers, is testing the loyalty of the president’s base.
在过去的十年里，我大部分时间都在报道MAGA运动；在过去的一年里，我大部分时间都在全国各地奔波，为今晚美东时间晚上8点在CNN首播的纪录片《MAGA会一直幸福下去吗？》进行拍摄。
I’ve spent much of the last decade covering the MAGA movement and most of the last year traveling the country for the documentary, “ MAGA Ever After? ” which premieres tonight at 8 p.m. ET on CNN.
在这部纪录片中，我们采访了一些在特朗普第二任期与总统决裂的前忠实支持者，以及那些一如既往对效忠他的人。我们还探讨了共和党在接受后特朗普时代的远景时，其未来将走向何方。在过去几个月与数百名共和党人交谈之后，以下是我的五点体会：战争爆发四周后，我去了达拉斯的保守派政治行动会议（CPAC）。就像共和党政治中的几乎所有事物一样，这个保守派忠实信徒的年度聚会在过去十年中已经演变为了MAGA的形象。这场活动已经变成了特朗普基本盘为期数天的集会。
In the doc we meet some former Trump faithful who have broken with the president in his second term, along with those who remain as loyal to him as ever. We also ask what’s next for the Republican Party as it comes to terms with the prospect of a post-Trump future. After speaking to hundreds of Republicans over the last few months, here are five of my takeaways: Four weeks into the war, I went to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas. Like just about everything in Republican politics, the annual gathering of the conservative faithful has transformed over the last decade into MAGA’s image. The event has become a multi-day rally of the Trump base.
当时引人注目的是，在我交谈过的人中，有许多人对特朗普的批评毫不掩饰。
It was notable then, among the dozens of people I spoke to, how vocal many were in their criticism of Trump.
我遇到了年过四十的特朗普支持者，他们表示自己已经接受了这样一种信念：尽管总统多年来承诺“不发动新战争”，但轰炸伊朗是必要的。他们认为，来自德黑兰的威胁迫在眉睫。
I met Trump supporters over 40 who said they’d come to accept the belief that despite the president’s years-long “no new wars” pledge, bombing Iran was needed. The threat from Tehran was imminent, they believed.
“不幸的是，我认为这是必要的，”一名女子说道。“他是唯一一个有骨气去承担这件事的总统。”
“Unfortunately, I think it’s necessary,” one woman said. “He’s the only president that had the backbone to take it on.”
但对于CPAC上较年轻的保守派男性来说，伊朗则是特朗普对他们终极的背叛。
But for the younger male conservatives at CPAC, Iran was Trump’s ultimate betrayal.
上个月，一群以年轻男性为主的观众在达拉斯聚集，听取右翼“美国优先”活动人士詹姆斯·菲什巴克的演讲，他一直批评特朗普在伊朗的战争。CNN“我不开心。我完全不开心，”一名22岁、曾投票支持特朗普的CPAC参与者说。“特朗普总统竞选时承诺不发动新战争，而我觉得我们被卷入了一场不该属于我们的战争。这场战争应该是以色列的。”
An audience of mostly young men gathers in Dallas last month to hear James Fishback, a right-wing “America First” activist who has been critical of Trump’s war in Iran. CNN “I’m not happy. I’m not happy at all,” said a 22-year-old CPAC attendee who had voted for Trump. “President Trump ran on no new wars, and I feel like we’ve been co-opted into a war that shouldn’t be ours. It should be Israel’s.”
特朗普此前曾违背竞选承诺。那么，他决定对伊朗发动战争为何成为众多年轻男性的最后一根稻草？
Trump has broken campaign promises before. So why was his decision to go to war with Iran the final straw for so many young men?
年轻男性并非铁板一块。但许多支持特朗普的年轻男性生活在一个信息环境中——他们并非永久固守单一政党的正统观点——这个环境由播客和观点塑造者主导，从乔·罗根和皮尔斯·摩根到更偏右翼的声音如塔克·卡尔森和尼克·富恩特斯。
Young men are not a monolith. But many of those young men who support Trump live in an information environment — not permanently moored to conventional orthodoxy of a single party — dominated by podcasters and opinion-shapers ranging from Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan to more right-wing voices like Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes.
年轻保守男性最认真地接受了“不发动新战争”的口号，因为他们是最可能被派往前线作战的人群。在他们中间，有一种真实的感觉：美国应该多做一些来帮助美国人，而不是打仗。他们也越来越关注美国与以色列的关系。
Young conservative men took the “no new wars” mantra most seriously because they are among the people most likely to be sent to fight. There’s a genuine sense among them that the US should be doing more to help Americans than to fight wars. They’re also increasingly focused on America’s relationship with Israel.
而年长的共和党人——相比年轻人更可能观看福克斯新闻——被告知这场战争是件好事，因为以色列是美国的盟友。然而，乔·罗根和塔克·卡尔森等人则持不同看法。而且他们不害怕公开表达这一观点。CNN在光谱的最右端，反犹太主义的鼓点推动了这场辩论的很大部分。
While older Republicans — more likely to watch Fox News than younger ones — are told the war is a good thing because Israel is America’s ally, the Rogans and Tuckers of the world disagree. And they are not afraid to make that known. CNN On the far-right end of the spectrum, a drumbeat of antisemitism animates much of this debate.
在过去三届总统选举中投票给特朗普的许多年轻男性是首次投票者，他们在过去十年里刚满18岁。他们受到乔·罗根和保守活动家查理·柯克等人的影响而支持特朗普。
Many of the young men who voted for Trump over the last three presidential elections were first-time voters who turned 18 over the last decade. They were sold on Trump by the likes of Rogan and conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
但就像乔·罗根一样——他在2016年曾支持伯尼·桑德斯参议员，之后才转向特朗普——这些男性的未来投票选择仍然悬而未决，因为他们正在处理自己所感受到的背叛。
But like Rogan, who was a supporter of Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2016 before moving rightward to Trump, these men’s future votes are up for grabs as they process the betrayal they feel.
“这有点让我火大，”德尔西亚·贝尔（Delsia Bare）对我说，“当你来自阿巴拉契亚时，你总是被视为落后和贫穷。”
“That sort of pisses me off,” Delsia Bare told me. “When you’re from Appalachia, you’ve always been backward and poor.”
贝尔是在回应特朗普最近的言论，即反对建设人工智能数据中心的社区是想要“落后和贫穷”。
Bare was reacting to Trump’s recent comment that communities that oppose the building of artificial intelligence data centers want to be “backward and poor.”
现年54岁的德尔西亚当时正与82岁的母亲艾达（Ida）坐在肯塔基州梅森县她们的家族农场家中。梅森县是坚定的红州；特朗普在2024年的该县选举中赢得了百分之七十一的选票，德尔西亚和艾达已经投了他三次票。
Delsia, 54, was sitting with her mother, Ida, 82, at home on their family farm in Mason County, Kentucky. Mason is deep red; Trump won 71% of the vote in the county in 2024, and Delsia and Ida have voted for him three times.
这对母女因拒绝了一家大型科技公司据称高达2600万美元的出价而轰动全球，该科技公司寻求在她们及邻居的农田上建造一个巨大的数据中心。
The mother and daughter made headlines around the world for turning down a reported $26 million from a big-tech company seeking to build a gigantic data center on their and their neighbors’ farmland.
德尔西亚·贝尔，来自肯塔基州梅森县的特朗普忠实支持者。她和母亲拒绝了一家科技公司为在其农田上建造巨型数据中心而提供的数百万美元资金。美国有线电视新闻网随着硅谷竞相为日益在我们生活中扮演主导地位、对数据有着巨大需求的人工智能系统建设产能，这场战斗正在全国各地上演。
Delsia Bare, a Trump loyalist from Mason County, Kentucky. She and her mother turned down millions from a tech company seeking to build a gigantic data center on their farmland. CNN It’s a fight that is happening across the country as Silicon Valley rushes to build capacity for the data-hungry AI systems increasingly playing dominant roles in our lives.
特朗普通过利用普通美国人的不满情绪两次当选，但在这一问题上，他似乎与他的基本盘脱节了。
Trump, who was elected twice in part by tapping into the grievances of regular Americans, seems out of step with his base on this issue.
MAGA运动的领军人物史蒂夫·班农（Steve Bannon）在上周接受JD·万斯（JD Vance）采访时，最为精辟地表达了这种挫败感，他要求这位副总统对他的大型科技公司“寡头金主”采取行动。
Steve Bannon, dean of the MAGA movement, expressed the frustration most succinctly in an interview with JD Vance last week when he demanded the vice president take action against his big-tech “oligarch sponsors.”
从高速公路、发电厂到监狱，“邻避”现象并不新鲜。但对德尔西亚和艾达来说，她们反对在家门口修建拟议数据中心的斗争，已经不仅仅代表着又一个公共工程项目。
From freeways to power plants to prisons, the not-in-my-backyard phenomena is not new. But for Delsia and Ida, their fight against the proposed datacenter in their backyard has come to represent more than another public works project.
她们将其视为一场反对占人口百分之零点一的群体的斗争，即那些曾在特朗普第二次就职典礼上站在他身后、如今又定期在椭圆形办公室与他会面的科技亿万富翁们。
They see it as a fight against the 0.1%, the tech billionaires who stood behind Trump at his second inauguration and now regularly meet with him in the Oval Office.
在他们敬畏上帝、地处“圣经地带”的家中，它也开始代表某种精神层面的东西：这是一场对抗一种新型智能的战斗，这种智能如此难以预测，以至于连构建它的人都不知道它接下来会做出什么。
And in their God-fearing, Bible Belt home it has also come to represent something spiritual: a fight against a new form of intelligence so unpredictable that even the people who are building it don’t know what it might do next.
Meta公司首席执行官马克·扎克伯格和Anthropic公司联合创始人达里奥·阿莫代伊在白宫外聆听特朗普总统于2026年9月29日举行的新闻发布会。凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社“那是反人类的，人工智能就是这样，”德尔西亚说。“它没有任何道德，也无法用上帝的标准来约束。”
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, and Dario Amodei, co-founder of Anthropic, listen as President Trump holds a press briefing outside the White House on September 29, 2026. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images “That’s anti-human, that’s what AI is,” Delsia said. “It doesn’t have any morals and it can’t be held to God’s standards.”
一位母亲和女儿在对抗一家价值数十亿美元的科技公司？我暗示，这听起来就像大卫与歌利亚之战。
A mom and daughter up against a multibillion-dollar tech company? This sounds like David and Goliath, I suggested.
“但我要提醒你，”德尔西亚回应道，“打倒一个非利士人只需要一块石头。只要放在正确的位置，哪怕是一块微不足道的小石头，也能击倒这个星球上的任何庞然大物。”
“But I’ll remind you,” Delsia responded, “it only took one stone to bring down a Philistine. One itty bitty little stone in the right place can bring down any giant that there is on this planet.”
对副总统万斯而言遗憾的是，在过去六个月里我交谈过的数以百计的MAGA（让美国再次伟大）基层成员中，以及我直接询问过关于2028年潜在共和党总统候选人的数十人中，没有一个人对表现出极大的热情。
Sadly for Vice President JD Vance, of the couple of hundred of members of the MAGA base I spoke with over the last six months, and the dozens I asked directly about potential Republican presidential candidates in 2028, none mentioned him with any great enthusiasm.
副总统万斯于2026年10月15日在密歇根州门罗市举行的期中选举集会上登台时鼓掌。丹尼尔·霍尔尔/Pool/盖蒂图片社我听到最频繁的名字是马尔科·鲁比奥——他身兼数职，既掌管国务院又担任国家安全顾问。人们似乎普遍认为这位前佛罗里达州参议员脚踏实地、埋头苦干。对万斯缺乏热情似乎是因为他与伊朗战争的关联。
Vice President JD Vance applauds as he takes the stage during a midterm campaign rally in Monroe, Michigan, on October 15, 2026. Daniel Heuer/Pool/Getty Images The name I heard most frequently was Marco Rubio — who wears several hats, including running the State Department as well as being the national security advisor. There seems to be a sense that the former senator from Florida has his head down and gets the work done. The lack of enthusiasm for Vance seems due to his association with the Iran war.
每当我问及身为美国外交政策核心的鲁比奥为何似乎没有被这场战争如此严厉地抹黑时，得到的回答通常是一个耸肩。
When I’ve asked why Rubio, whose is at the heart of U.S. foreign policy, doesn’t seem tarnished as harshly by the war, the response is usually a shrug.
在特朗普民调支持率走低以及他与共和党在期中选举中面临种种挑战的背景下，人们很容易忘记，仍有数百万美国人对这位总统保持着极高的忠诚度。
Amid Trump’s low poll numbers and all the challenges facing him and the Republican Party going into the midterms, it’s easy to forget that there are still millions of Americans who remain extremely loyal to the president.
以来自科罗拉多州大章程的特朗普支持者乔·布莱克（Joe Black）为例，我三年前在内华达州的一次特朗普集会上首次结识了他。
Take Joe Black, a Trump supporter from Grand Junction, Colorado, who I first met three years ago at a Trump rally in Nevada.
乔在2024年大选前告诉我，他希望特朗普重返白宫，以压低油价并结束海外战争。
Joe told me ahead of the 2024 election that he wanted Trump back in the White House to bring down gas prices and to end foreign wars.
几周前我拜访乔时，他承认油价问题很棘手，但他坚信总统对伊朗开战是正确的。
When I visited Joe a few weeks ago, he acknowledged that the cost of gas was tough, but he was convinced that the president was right to go to war with Iran.
乔·布莱克，来自科罗拉多州大章程的特朗普坚定支持者。“想象一下，如果卡玛拉·哈里斯当选，我们现在会生活在一个什么样的世界里，”他说。大卫·冯·布洛恩/美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）供图 CNN“没有人喜欢战争，”布莱克告诉我。“但任何了解这个伊朗政权的人都知道，在过去的47年里，他们一直都是四处霸凌、炸毁别人的坏人。”
Joe Black, a diehard Trump supporter from Grand Junction, Colorado. "Imagine the world that we'd be living in right now if Kamala Harris got in,” he says. Photo by David von Blohn/CNN CNN “Nobody likes war,” Black told me. “But anybody who knows this Iranian regime, like for the last 47 years they’ve just been bad guys going around bullying, blowing people up.”
甚至那些在人工智能等某些领域批评特朗普的人，在其他领域也支持他。肯塔基州的代尔西亚（Delsia）和艾达（Ida）也一致认为特朗普对伊朗做出了正确的决定。
Even those critical of Trump in some areas, like AI, support him in others. Delsia and Ida in Kentucky also agreed that Trump made the right call in Iran.
艾达在谈到美国在中东的外交政策时说：“美国曾怀有善意。”“我们照顾了所有这些国家。”但“一次又一次，他们仍然高喊‘美国去死！美国去死！’”。她说：“好吧，是时候制止这种‘美国去死’的行径了。”
“The United States was good-hearted,” Ida said of American foreign policy in the Middle East. “We’ve taken care of all these nations.”But “time after time they still chant, ‘Death to America. Death to America!’”“Well,” she said, “it’s time we put a stop to death to America.”
在2024年，许多特朗普支持者指出前总统乔·拜登时期的经济状况以及乌克兰和加沙的战争，以此证明美国正在衰落、世界正陷入混乱。
In 2024, many Trump supporters pointed to the state of former President Joe Biden’s economy and wars in Ukraine and Gaza as evidence of an America in decline and a world in disarray.
他们现在面临着比两年前更高的油价、比拜登离任时更高的通货膨胀，以及一场对伊朗的新战争。
They now confront gas prices that are higher than they were two years ag o, inflation that is higher than it was when Biden left office, and a new war in Iran.
但像乔·布莱克这样的支持者表示，无论在特朗普领导下发生什么，都比另一种选择要好。
But supporters like Joe Black say whatever is happening under Trump is better than the alternative.
“稍微发挥一下你的想象力，想象一下如果卡马拉·哈里斯当选了，我们现在会生活在一个什么样的世界里，”布莱克说。“想想看，现在的世界会变成一个多么像人间地狱的地方。”
“Just use your imagination for a second and imagine the world that we’d be living in right now if Kamala Harris got in,” Black said. “Just think of what kind of a hellhole world this would be right now.”
巴拉克·奥巴马离开白宫可能已经快十年了，但在过去的几个月里，我在竞选活动中听到他名字的频率越来越高。
Barack Obama may have left the White House almost a decade ago, but I have heard his name on the campaign trail with increasing frequency in recent months.
当被问及特朗普与伊朗的战争时，乔·布莱克迅速转移了话题：“奥巴马才是用无人机杀人的大王，”他说。
Asked about Trump’s war with Iran, Joe Black quickly pivoted: “Obama was the king of killing people with drones,” he said.
前总统巴拉克·奥巴马于2026年6月18日在芝加哥出席巴拉克·奥巴马总统中心开馆落成典礼并发表讲话。Jim Vondruska/Getty Images越是难以将特朗普的美国与拜登的美国作对比并得出有利结论，我就越有可能听到奥巴马这个名字。
Former President Barack Obama speaks during the dedication ceremony for the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center in Chicago on June 18, 2026. Jim Vondruska/Getty Images The more difficult it gets to compare Trump’s America favorably to Biden’s, the more likely it is I will hear the name Obama.
特朗普的忠实支持者说，是不爱美国的人——而不是那位不久前暗示将允许对手轰炸洛杉矶和圣迭戈的总统。
Trump loyalists say it’s Obama who didn’t love America — not the president who recently suggested he’d allow Los Angeles and San Diego be bombed by an adversary.
特朗普的忠实支持者说，是奥巴马在愚弄美国人民——而不是那位通过加密货币赚取数十亿美元的总统。
Trump loyalists say it’s Obama who was pulling a fast one on the American people — not the president who is making billions of dollars in crypto.
关于奥巴马的“你们怎么不……”（whataboutism）说辞经不起严肃的推敲。但对于MAGA（让美国再次伟大）基础选民中的许多人来说，他的名字唤起的情感和记忆，无论是真实的还是想象的，都显得非常真实。对他们而言，奥巴马的当选才是美国真正的原罪。
Obama whataboutisms rarely survive serious scrutiny. But the feelings and the memories, real or imagined, his name invokes for many in the MAGA base feel very real. His election, to them, is America’s true original sin.